Zheng Tanjun was photographed in Suqian, Jiangsu Province in April 2023.
There is a saying in the liquor circle: "The east does not enter Anhui, and the west does not enter Sichuan". It goes without saying that Huijiu and Sichuan liquor were once regarded as typical regional liquors in the Chinese liquor market for a period of time.
Among them, Huijiu, known as the "marketing kingdom", once became a benchmark for learning Xi in the industry. However, at present, Sichuan wine, Qianjiu, Su wine, Jin wine and other regional liquor plates have risen strongly. Huijiu seems to have gone "downhill" on the whole.
On December 3, Dong Keyong, assistant general manager of Gujing Sales Company and director of the brand management center, said at an event that looking back on the 45 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has the ability to overcome difficulties. He also revealed that this year is the 60th anniversary of Gujing Gongjiu being awarded the "Chinese Famous Liquor". In 2024, the smart industrial park of Gujing Gongjiu will be put into operation, and "after it is put into operation, the digital, green and intelligent production of our enterprise as a whole will reach the advanced level of the same industry in China".
It is worth mentioning that not long ago, the main product brand of Gujing Gongjiu, "Vintage Puree", once again fell into the controversy of true and fake "vintage wine", which also cast a shadow on the future development of Gujing Gongjiu, which is sprinting to the 20 billion club.
In the context of industry adjustment, can Chairman Liang Jinhui lead Gujing Gongjiu to achieve its goals smoothly?
The "vintage puree" storm has risen again
In the product series of Gujing Gongjiu, there is a very heavy existence, which is the vintage puree series. Well-known ones include Gu 20, Gu 26, Gu 16, Gu 8, Gu 7, Gu 5 and so on.
According to the official website of Gujing Gongjiu Tmall, the discounted ** of 50 degrees 500ml*2 bottles of Gu 8 gift box is 499 yuan, which is about equivalent to 250 yuan bottle. In addition, the discounted ** of 42 degrees 500ml*1 bottle of Gu 16 is 410 yuan. 52 degrees 500ml*1 bottle of ancient 20 after discount** is 680 yuan. 52 degrees 500ml*1 bottle of Gu 26 after folding** is 1288 yuan.
It is not difficult to see that the higher the number, the higher the corresponding **. Thinking of "wine is an aged fragrance", coupled with the logo of "vintage puree", many people are Xi to think that the number behind the Gujing Gongjiu vintage puree represents the vintage of the wine.
Not really. According to the ** report, a number of Gujing Gongjiu insiders have previously confirmed: "Vintage puree" is just a brand name, and the number behind it is only a product code, which does not represent the real vintage. The customer service of Gujing Gongjiu **official*** also confirmed the above statement to Zheng Tanjun.
In fact, it's not just Zheng Tanjun who has the above confusion. On November 17, at the 19th China International Wine Industry Expo, Hu Yiming, director of the Vintage Liquor Management Committee of the China Liquor Industry Association, pointed out that the chaos of false vintage liquor over the years has seriously infringed on the interests of the broad masses of the people, and it should be said that it is suspected of seriously violating the protection of consumer rights and interests, the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, the China Food Safety Law, the Advertising Law and the Criminal Law of the People's Republic of China, and seriously infringing on the legitimate rights and interests of consumers.
Hu Yiming's remarks also triggered a rethinking of vintage liquor in the industry again, among which the vintage puree of Gujing Gongjiu has once again attracted widespread attention from the public.
Vintage puree is a liquor product launched by Gujing Gongjiu in 2008. In December 2009, Gujing Gongjiu filed an application for the registration of the trademark "Vintage Puree". In December 2016, the trademark was approved for registration and use on alcoholic beverages. It is worth mentioning that after the registration of the "vintage puree" trademark of Gujing Gongjiu, it has also caused controversy among many people in the industry and even peers.
According to public information, on March 8, 2017, Jian Nanchun filed a request for invalidation of the trademark, but it was ultimately not supported, and then filed an appeal with the Beijing Intellectual Property Court. Wuliangye Company also filed an application with the original Trademark Review and Adjudication Board, requesting that the trademark "vintage puree" be invalidated. The original Trademark Review and Adjudication Board held that the trademark "vintage puree" did not violate the provisions of the Trademark Law. Dissatisfied, Wuliangye Company also sued the Beijing Intellectual Property Court. In the end, the Beijing Intellectual Property Court ruled and rejected Wuliangye's claim. The dispute over the trademark "vintage puree" lasted until October 2019, when the Beijing Higher People's Court upheld the first-instance judgment.
Inventories of workhorses surged
After the end of the trademark dispute, over the years, Gujing Gongjiu has rapidly expanded and developed in the market with the combination of "vintage puree + number". Up to now, the vintage puree series has become an important part of Gujing Gongjiu's revenue.
Gujing Gongjiu's 2023 semi-annual report shows that in the first half of this year, the operating income of the "vintage puree" series in Gujing Gongjiu by series was 876.1 billion yuan. You must know that the total revenue of Gujing Gongjiu by series is only 109$8.1 billion. Based on this calculation, the revenue of the "vintage puree" series accounted for 7979%。
It is not an exaggeration to say that the "vintage puree" series is the "handle" in the various product series of Gujing Gongjiu. However, at present, the "troubles" faced by Gujing Gongjiu are not only the trademark dispute of "vintage puree".
According to the financial report, as of September 30 this year, the inventory of Gujing Gongjiu's consolidated balance sheet was 644.4 billion yuan;605.8 billion yuan, an increase of 38.6 billion yuan;Compared to 51 at the end of September 20226.6 billion yuan, an increase of 24 percent year-on-year74%。
The specific sales data are reflected in more detail in this year's semi-annual report. The financial report shows that in the first half of this year, the inventory of the annual puree series was 1710,000 tons, a significant increase of 5351%。In this regard, Gujing Gongjiu only explained that the main reason was the increase in the company's revenue and the increase in product storage.
However, Zheng Tanjun noticed that in the first half of the year, the production of Gujing Gongjiu vintage puree only increased by 8 year-on-year79%, and sales increased by 24 year-on-year73%。
In addition, the production volume of the company's Gujing Gongjiu products decreased significantly by 48 percent year-on-year98%, and the inventory decreased by 66 year-on-year04%；The production volume of the company's yellow crane tower and other products decreased by 45% year-on-year78%, and the inventory decreased by 60 year-on-year82%。Gujing Gongjiu explained that it was mainly due to the sale of pre-sales inventory.
On the whole, Gujing Gongjiu is indeed deliberately digesting the inventory. However, in this context, the inventory of the company's puree series, which accounts for the "majority" of the year, has increased by more than 50% year-on-year, which is still a little puzzling.
In order to better understand the performance development of Gujing Gongjiu, Zheng Tanjun picked up the financial data for two more years. In 2022, the production volume of Gujing Gongjiu's "Vintage Puree Series" will be 6340,000 tons, an increase of 256%；The sales volume is 5260,000 tons, an increase of 21 year-on-year77%；But the stock level is 2460,000 tons, a significant increase of 78 percent year-on-year15%。
In 2021, the production volume of Gujing Gongjiu's "Vintage Puree Series" will be 5050,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2684%；Sales volume 4320,000 tons, an increase of only 1 year-on-year4%；The company's inventory is 1380,000 tons, a significant increase of 111 year-on-year26%。
This is a shocking statistic. It is not difficult to see that since 2021, the inventory of Gujing Gongjiu's "vintage puree series" has maintained a rapid growth trend. In 2020 and before, this trend did not materialize for the company.
According to the financial report, in 2020, the inventory of Gujing Gongjiu's "Vintage Puree Series" is only 653688 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3011%。
Eager sprints "drag" profits
In fact, behind the surge in inventory of Gujing Gongjiu's main products, it is not unrelated to the company's chairman Liang Jinhui's goal of "sprinting 20 billion".
According to public information, in 2019, Gujing Gongjiu successfully entered the 10 billion camp, and Liang Jinhui, chairman of Gujing Group, put forward the strategic concept of "rebuilding a new Gujing", planning to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion in five years, that is, in 2024.
In "A Letter to All Employees in 2023", Liang Jinhui mentioned that 2023 is the "Year of Deepening Reform and Upgrading" of Gujing Group, and mentioned that it will win the 20 billion mark in 2023.
It is not difficult to explain why the whole industry is shouting "reduce inventory" in the environment, Gujing Gongjiu still has not stopped sprinting.
According to the financial report, in the first three quarters of this year, the operating income of Gujing Gongjiu was 1595.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2498%；Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 381.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4537%。It seems that the company's performance in the first three quarters of this year is still very good. It is only 40 billion yuan away from the 20 billion yuan mark4.7 billion yuan. At the critical juncture of sprinting to 20 billion, Gujing Gongjiu really couldn't stop the sprint.
However, a closer study will find that Gujing Gongjiu has also paid a huge price in order to achieve the goal of 20 billion. In addition to the rapidly surging inventory, another indicator that continues to "lift all boats" is marketing expenses.
According to the financial report, in the first three quarters of 2023, the sales expenses of Gujing Gongjiu will be 436.3 billion yuan, only 18 less than Wuliangye6.4 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry. In comparison, Kweichow Moutai's sales expenses are only 306.3 billion yuan.
From the perspective of revenue indicators, Kweichow Moutai's operating income in the first three quarters of 2023 is 10326.8 billion yuan, which is 647 times.
In horizontal comparison, from 2020 to 2022, the sales expenses of Gujing Gongjiu will be 312.1 billion yuan, 400.8 billion and 466.8 billion yuan, with an obvious growth trend.
While spending heavily on marketing drives the rapid expansion of scale, it also causes a lot of erosion on profits. Wind data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the net profit margin of Gujing Gongjiu was only 2451%, ranking outside the top 10 in the industry.
From the perspective of the industry, in 2022, only Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao will have a revenue scale of more than 20 billion yuan.
However, after 20 billion, Liang Jinhui may have many problems to face. And the first question is: how to increase profit margins.
Author丨Zhang Yu.
*丨Exploration Finance (ID: teccj6).