The glass has recently entered a dilemma, in other words, in fact, from a fundamental point of view, glass isLong and short intertwinedcase, so for glass, the short term can beHigh position**Regard.
Recent raw materialsSoda ashof**Down, with the cost of glass has moved down, and the plateRise in spotSince then, the pressure on warehouse receipts has also increased, and we can see that although the number of warehouse receipts on the exchange has declined compared to the previous two days, it is still thereMore than 4,800 sheets
At the same time the glass is nowOperating rateStill inRisetrend, because of the current stage of glassProduction margins are better, and then superimposed on itself with glassStrong rigidity in productionThe cost of cold repair is high, so in the case of good profits, manufacturers are more inclined to do soIncrease operating rates, according to the statistics of steel union data, float glass production capacityAn increase of 71%, photovoltaic glass production capacityThis represents a year-on-year increase of 2968%
These are short-termBearish factors
But the variety of glass also has supporting factors, that isInventory
From the recent inventory data we can clearly see that glassInventory depletionMore obviously, on December 15, the national float glassTotal inventoryIt's 316720,000 heavy boxes, a decrease of 3,994 compared to the same period last year30,000 heavy boxes, the magnitude of the declineMore than 100%., the inventory has obviously become the factor supporting the disk.
And fromCostpoint of view, due to the high level of soda ash, resulting in the glassCost sideAs of December 15, the profit of coal-made glass was 237 yuan tons, and the cost was 1,563 yuan tonsThe profit of petroleum coke glass is 541 yuan ton, and the cost is 1426 yuan ton;The profit of natural gas to glass is 197 yuan ton, and the cost is 1894 yuan ton.
So based on the current fundamental situation, the glass is holisticProduction and marketingBasically maintainedAbove the median level, the terminal rigid demand resilience is still there, and the inventory pressure of enterprises still exists, so the pressure to continue to rise in the disk is greater, and the short-term may take the logic of more profits, 05 contract for the time beingHigh position**
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