As November 2023 passes, we are once again turning our attention to the fortunes of China's economy. In the month, despite the challenges of the complex situation of the global economy and some domestic structural problems, China's economic leading index still showed a solid momentum.
1. China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index situation
According to the data, the manufacturing PMI was 494%, down 01 percentage point. Although this value is slightly below the critical point, it remains in the expansion zone. This suggests that China's manufacturing activity as a whole remains growing steadily, albeit at a slight slowdown.
Looking further at the division of business size, we find that the PMI of large enterprises is 505%, down 02 percentage points, but still above the tipping point. The PMI for medium-sized businesses is 488%, up 01 percentage point, which is below the critical point. The PMI for small businesses is 478%, also down 01 percentage point, below the critical point. This shows that in the manufacturing industry, large and medium-sized enterprises are in relatively good shape, while small enterprises face certain challenges.
Among the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the first-class merchant delivery time index are higher than the critical point, indicating that the production activities of the manufacturing industry are still expanding, and the first-class merchant delivery time continues to accelerate. However, the new orders index, raw material inventory index and employment index are below the critical point, indicating that the market demand has declined, the inventory of major raw materials has decreased, and the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises has rebounded slightly.
Second, China's non-manufacturing PMI situation
In November, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 502%, down 04 percentage points, but still above the tipping point. This indicates that non-manufacturing activities have maintained stable growth as a whole and their contribution to economic growth remains significant.
3. The operation of China's composite PMI output index
The index is 504%, down 03 percentage points. Despite the decline, this value remains above the tipping point, indicating that China's business activities continue to expand overall.
The head of the Shenzhen Qiancheng Digital Inclusive Finance Research Group believes that the China's economic leading index in November 2023 shows the steady growth trend of China's economy. At the same time, we also need to see some structural issues, such as the challenges faced by small businesses and the reduction in the inventory of key raw materials. This requires us to pay more attention and guidance in future economic policies.
Looking ahead, with the gradual recovery of the global economy and China's active regulation of the economy, we expect that China's leading economic index will continue to remain in the expansion range. At the same time, for the challenges faced by small enterprises and the reduction of raw material inventories, enterprises should actively take measures, such as increasing support and optimizing resource allocation, so as to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the economy.
Brief description of indicators] The economic leading index can accurately reflect the status and trend of economic development, take the lead in changing before the overall economic growth or recession comes, can predict the turning point in the economic cycle and estimate the magnitude of economic activity ups and downs, and speculate the trend of economic fluctuations.
In the United States, the market is most concerned about non-farm payrolls, CPI, and PPI (producer price index), and many economic policies in the United States are formulated around employment and CPI.
Unlike the United States, China also focuses on CPI and employment, but the market pays more attention to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), especially the manufacturing PMI.
To be continued).