Not long ago, Ge Weidong, a well-known domestic investment tycoon, made a sad sigh: "What is more difficult than A-shares is Hong Kong stocks, which subvert my 30 years of investment experience and knowledge, even if Buffett Soros comes, he will be buried." However, in the face of this almost hopeless lament, my view is the opposite, and the following three reasons are enough to make me optimistic about Hong Kong stocks:
1. Over the years, Hong Kong has experienced countless waves of negative impacts. To this day, I don't dare to say that the benefits are exhausted, but looking forward to next year, I really can't think of a worse situation or a darker moment in Hong Kong. It's almost time to go (capital and people);The preferential policies that Western countries no longer give have also been almost abolished;In the financial and competitive fields, which are the two pillars of Hong Kong's economy, the substitution and competition impact of other regions on Hong Kong has been long enough, and there is no room for much room and leeway. Don't forget, after all, Hong Kong is a treasure land of freedom and openness, and Hong Kong's integrity, self-discipline and rule of law, as well as the diligence and high quality of its people, are unmatched by many cities and regions in the world. In addition, with the big tree of the mainland at your back, you can always get a lot of support and help.
It is particularly noteworthy that the US and European central banks have ended the trend of interest rate hikes, and the US dollar index and US and European medium and long-term bond yields have fallen significantly, which has largely alleviated Hong Kong's capital outflow and liquidity pressure.
Second, the Hong Kong market has become a rare value depression in the world. After a long period of continuous declines, the current average price-to-earnings ratio of Hong Kong stocks of 7 times is not unattractive. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 2900 points, the valuation has been much lower than in the past, and it is already very attractive, but if compared with Hong Kong stocks, it still has a high premium over Hong Kong stocks (the latest A-shares: H-share average premium index is still as high as 148 points), which is a good reflection of the value and attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks.
Third, the large number of listed companies repurchasing shares in the Hong Kong market strongly proves that with the decline in stock prices, more and more listed companies do not agree that the market underestimates their value. As of December 21, a total of more than 200 companies in Hong Kong have implemented repurchases since the beginning of this year, with more than 84 repurchases6.9 billion shares, with a repurchase amount of up to 1196HK$5.6 billion, which has exceeded the HK$104.9 billion for the whole of last year. In 2021, the repurchase amount was only HK$38.1 billion.
Do you agree with me?