Hello everyone, I'm the head of the hall.
There's an old saying: it's all history repeating itself.
Since the beginning of this year, the topic of unemployment has been attracting attention.
The unemployment rate for young people, in particular, is now suspended.
In the comment area of the hall master B station **, you can often see someone leaving a message saying that he is unemployed.
Recently, I swiped a paragraph and said:
The men are delivering takeaways, the women are doing live broadcasts, the men go to see the beautiful anchors after delivering the takeaways, and the beautiful anchors go to order takeout when they are hungry, and then the men continue to deliver takeaways, and the women continue to do live broadcasts after eating takeout......
You see, isn't this the perfect closed loop?
Life, a big dream.
All of the above inevitably makes people wonder if the wave of layoffs in the 90s of the last century is going to be staged again.
One thing to say, the current wave of unemployment is still different from the wave of layoffs in the 90s.
First of all, unemployment occurs for different reasons.
The emergence of the wave of layoffs in the 90s was actually an initiative to try to reform the economic system, and the targets were mainly concentrated in state-owned enterprises and collective-owned enterprises.
There are both internal and external causes.
The internal reason is that since the 80s, state-owned enterprises have been the focus of reform because of poor management, but they have not achieved much success.
By 1998, the problems of state-owned enterprises had reached a point where it was difficult to return, and it was impossible not to change them.
Interface report: At that time, one-third of state-owned enterprises were openly losing, one-third were secretly losing, and only the remaining one-third were making profits.
The external reason is to prepare for China's accession to the WTO, to readjust labor-management relations, and to give a certain space to the market economy.
With the blessing of internal and external factors, there was the reform of state-owned enterprises in 1998.
At that time, some policies were also introduced to resettle laid-off workers.
For example, laid-off workers are provided with a three-year living guarantee and re-employment services.
Until these workers are adapted to society, they are given basic livelihood guarantees.
However, when it landed, there was a huge gap with reality.
This can be seen in the Northeast, when the wave of layoffs occurred, tens of millions of workers were collectively unemployed.
In the 1999 Spring Festival Gala sketch "Cheer Up", shouted the loud slogan "I won't be laid off, who will be laid off".
This is the New Year.,Although I've been laid off.,But it's also the New Year.,It's supposed to be festive.,As a result, when I saw this,I guess I quickly picked up the TV remote control.,Immediately change the channel。
After so many years, Zhang Mingjie, the mother of a famous singer, was found to have an amount of more than 3500 million, which includes the resettlement fee for laid-off workers.
It has embezzled 566 employees and about 11.47 million laid-off resettlement fees.
Some workers have worked for 20 years, but they only get more than 1,000 severance pay.
is also a child from the Northeast, and when she was laid off in the 90s, she had already played the piano worth 10,000 yuan.
Later, he went abroad to study, party, and play, and finally became popular all over the country with a song "In My Song".
Who knows, this song is hiding the souls of darkness.
Of course, at the same time, there was also the promotion of reemployment services.
In the 90s, 1 million workers in Shanghai were also laid off, and by 2001, these workers were basically reemployed in the market.
It's just that the Northeast is not so lucky, and the laid-off workers there don't know much about the policy.
Wu Qingjun, a professor at the School of Labor and Personnel of the Chinese People's University, went to two provincial capitals in northeast China to investigate and found that there were 58 at that timeFive per cent of laid-off workers have not received unemployment benefits.
Let's look at the reasons why we are now unemployed.
From a macro point of view, there are two dimensions that have triggered our current unemployment.
The first dimension is the change on the supply side. There are 4 aspects:
First, technological change.
Because of the introduction of new technologies, the improvement of production efficiency, and because of the industrial upgrading, the number of workers in the original positions has decreased.
Second, skill mismatch.
This is easier to understand, for example, the skills that college students learn nowadays find that they are not needed for work at all when they arrive in society.
Third, there is an imbalance in the structure.
Why can't I find a job even though I go to college?In addition to the mismatch of actual skills, there is also the need for fewer positions.
In the past, the industries that accepted tens of millions of college students were mainly concentrated in the three industries of real estate, education and training, and the Internet.
But now you look at these three, real estate lying on the floor, taking viagra violently, still can't get up.
Education and training are still struggling, I don't know when I will be able to release it, and take the lead in the big brother New Oriental, and now the main business is live broadcast sales.
Let's take a look at the Internet industry.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, in 2021, more than 35 Internet companies laid off employees, including ByteDance, Kuaishou, etc.
Last year, 2022, and this year's situation, in a word, I thought 2021 would be difficult, but I didn't expect it to be even more difficult now.
In the past, the Internet industry was the darling of social recruitment and school recruitment, with high salaries and wide platforms, and once became the first choice for young people.
But now, only four words can be said: time has passed.
The second dimension that triggers unemployment at the macro level: insufficient demand.
On the one hand, the external global environment, the global manufacturing recession, Sino-US conflicts, geopolitical conflicts, and even the US dollar interest rate hike in the past two years have had a certain impact on the global economy.
On the other hand, the biggest carriage driving economic development: investment. Now the marginal utility of investment-driven demand is getting smaller and smaller.
In fact, it is the macro into the economic cycle, the demand is insufficient, the number of jobs is reduced, and unemployment is increasing.
Sort out the above and compare it to see that in fact, there is still a clear difference between the current unemployment and the wave of layoffs in the 90s.
The reasons are different, and the range of objects is also different.
In the past, workers in state-owned enterprises were the main targets, but now unemployment is more widespread, even if young people are now better educated.
Most importantly, the opportunities for unemployment are not the same.
In the 90s, the workers of state-owned enterprises were collectively unemployed, but the subsequent accession to the WTO ushered in a wave of huge opportunities.
In the past, workers were unemployed and could still go to the sea.
Now unemployed, don't look at so many industries, but the industry is vast, and there are very few people who can accommodate shelter.
Those who have just graduated from college, the men deliver takeaways, and the women do live broadcasts.
After the age of 30, the end of a man is security, the end of a woman is cleaning, and the end of not limited to men and women is insurance, commonly known as: auspicious three treasures.
Of course, this issue is not to create anxiety, because the last time I talked about unemployment, it attracted a lot of abuse.
At that time, the hall owner talked about his micro feelings about unemployment, and said that the current situation of fragmentation on the employment side is because the market has long been unable to meet the output of workers within 8 hours, and enterprises and society do not allow you to be an ordinary person.
* summarizes as follows: the worker wants to be an ordinary person, but the job market does not allow you to be an ordinary person.
At that time, I was doing that issue, in fact, it was nothing, it was the end of the year, and the leader arranged more and more work for me.
As a grandma who does macro interpretation, the more you understand the macro and the more you see the truth, the more powerless you often feel.
For work, I just want to get a salary, do a job, and just want to be an ordinary person.
But the leader has always felt that I should not be an ordinary person, I must have three heads and six arms, and one salary must make three work effects.
So, the hall master did the content of the last issue.
As a result, many people say that it is rhythmic and anxiety-inducing.
Therefore, this issue is a supplement to the content of the previous issue to analyze the causes of unemployment from a macro perspective and more objectively.
Sometimes I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing to have more fans.
I vaguely remember when there were only a few hundred or thousands of fans.
Talk about what is in your heart, talk about your parents' shortcomings, and discuss and batllebattle with fans in the comment area, which is very harmonious.
Now that there are more fans, it has become a restriction on creation.
Finally, back to the topic of unemployment.
The hall owner would like to say a few words to the young people who are unemployed:
The cycle will always come, and unemployment will follow, so you don't have to deny yourself too much.
The Northeast workers who were laid off in the 90s were just like the Kodak film, not that they were not excellent, but they were born at the wrong time and happened to meet them.
Just like the movie "Piano of Steel", the group of laid-off workers in it have been working in factories for most of their lives and have excellent industrial skills, but they unexpectedly encountered a wave of layoffs.
Some started red and white ceremonial bands, some resold scrap steel, and some sold pork ......
There is a saying: the screen is full of spring breeze, and they are all frustrated people back then.
The more you encounter cycles, the more you should not doubt yourself.
Nowadays, many young people who can't find jobs have gone to college, and many of them have gone to key universities, so that they wonder whether they should go to college.
The hall master wants to tell you that knowledge may not necessarily change fate, but it is certain that knowledge can definitely open minds.
You have to have your own thoughts, and of course, you can't just live in dreams.
You've got to get yourself through this winter and get through this cycle.
Okay, that's all for this issue, and we'll see you next time