For the kitchen appliance industry, 2023 will not be easy, and "how to survive" and "how to grow" have become the keywords that linger in the hearts of various kitchen enterprises.
When consumer consumption behavior tends to be conservative, the competition in the kitchen appliance market is further intensified, and the industry has entered a period of deep consolidation. In this breakthrough battle, there are categories such as smoke stoves, gas water heaters, dishwashers and other categories that have risen against the trend, and there are also integrated stoves that have suffered a serious loss of the new market and have declined. Now, 2024 is just around the corner. We have selected four key categories of smoke stoves, integrated stoves, dishwashers, and water purification from the major categories of kitchen appliances, and we will use this article to carry out them one by one, starting from their advantages and disadvantages, and try to get a glimpse of the future development context.
Smoke stoves: the number of holdings has not peaked, and there are still growth opportunities in the future
As a rigid demand category, smoke stoves will show a steady rebound in the first three quarters of 2023. According to the total data of Aowei Cloud Network (**c), the retail sales of range hoods in the third quarter of 2023 will be 7.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%;The retail sales of gas stoves were 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%.
Overall, there is still room for improvement in the smoke stove market, and the gradual release of consumer replacement demand, it is expected that in 2024, the smoke stove will continue to show a stable trend, and it may remain 1 in the next few years8-1.9% compound growth capability;At the same time, the real estate dividend period has passed, and the knockout competition in the stock market will continue to catalyze the reshuffle of the smoke stove market, and the brand concentration will be improved.
In the long run, there are more positive factors than unfavorable factors affecting the future development of the smoke stove industry.
There are three positive factors:
After the epidemic, the reshuffle of the smoke stove market has accelerated, which will promote the concentration of the brand share of smoke stoves to the head. According to the data of Aowei Cloud Network, in the first half of 2023, in the online TOP3 brand share concentration data, the smoke machine will increase from 52%** to 57%, and the stove will increase from 43%** to 58%, and the online and offline brand share concentration of smoke stove will be further improved. After a number of long-tail brands exit, under the benign leadership of the head brand, the smoke stove industry will achieve more high-quality sustainable development.
At present, the number of smoke stoves in the market has not peaked, and there is still room for growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics' 2022 measurement data on the ownership of 100 households in the kitchen appliance category, the number of range hoods (including integrated stoves) is 631%, the number of gas stoves is 757%。The demand for smoke stoves will be further released.
As consumers' demand for kitchens is shifting from functional to quality, smoke stove products are also changing to high-end, and enterprises and users are gradually taking into account the appearance of kitchen appliances, the health of cooking and the comfort of use. For example, technologies such as smoke machine mute, smoke stove linkage, and APP control have been gradually incorporated into the user's consideration.
One of the major disadvantages is as follows:
The population has shown a negative growth trend, and the growth of the new clothing market is not as good as in the past. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the natural population growth rate in 2022 was -060, which is the first negative growth of the Chinese population in nearly 61 years. In the long run, negative population growth will lead to a relative surplus of housing in the real estate market, a decrease in the vitality of the new housing market, and a contraction in demand for improvements.
It is worth mentioning that, compared with the smoke machine, the frequency of use and the update cycle of the stove are shorter, and the future stove may be able to get rid of the status quo of complete sales with the smoke machine and obtain independent development.
Integrated stove: short-term pressure is high, and the deepening of the integrated concept may bring benefits
After 2020, the high growth momentum of the integrated cooker market has slowed down, and the overall development has entered a period of steady development. According to the total data of Aowei Cloud Network (**c), the cumulative retail sales of the integrated stove market in the first three quarters of 2023 will be 18.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%。It is still under pressure. We estimate that in the short term, the first period of integrated stove will continue, and the fierce knockout competition will eliminate some long-tail brands, and in the long run, the surviving enterprises have no obvious shortcomings in product power, brand power, channel power, etc., which will promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure of integrated stoves.
At the same time, on the basis of further deepening the concept of integration, integrated kitchen enterprises will not be confined to a single category, and will further explore the boundary of integrated kitchen appliances.
There are three positive factors:
The Matthew effect of the brand in the integrated cooker industry is obvious, and the knockout competition will continue to promote the market share to the head brand. According to the data of Aowei cloud network, in Q1 of 2023, 42 online brands and 23 offline brands in the integrated stove industry will withdraw. It shows the fierceness of the knockout round. In 2019, the total revenue of the four leading companies (i.e., Martian, Meida, Yitian, and Shuaifeng) was 435.7 billion, and in 2022, this figure grew to 631.6 billion, an increase of nearly 2 billion in 3 years. It is obvious that the market share of integrated stoves is concentrating on the head.
The problem of small kitchen area in China objectively exists, and the integrated stove has advantages in space utilization and smoke absorption effect. According to statistics from CICC's research department, 68 percent of Chinese households have kitchens of less than 8 square meters5%。In a space of less than one square meter, the integrated stove can integrate multiple kitchen appliances, which is indeed more in line with the kitchen needs of most families in China in terms of function and space.
The overall penetration rate of integrated stoves is not high, and there is still a lot of room for development. According to the data of Aowei cloud network, the penetration rate of integrated stoves in 2022 will be 1364%, still at a low level, at the same time, more than half of the integrated stove stores in the third and fourth tier cities, the proportion of the first and second market is relatively low, and there is room for growth in the future.
The two major disadvantages are as follows:
The installation of integrated stoves requires changes in piping and is costly, compared to the traditional smoke stove set and the integrated cooking center competitors, which have a strong advantage in the competition in the stock market. The vast majority of users in the stock market use smoke stoves, which are more convenient to replace, while the flue and countertop need to be changed when replacing the integrated stove, the process is complex and the cost is high.
In the short term, the integrated stove continues to be under pressure, and the new market will not come immediately. The integrated stove has been out for 20 years, there are nearly 20 million sets of market stock, with the early purchase of the integrated stove users are about to be replaced, a few years later or ushered in the integrated stove replacement window period. But before that, there is still a plateau to experience.
Dishwashers: The penetration rate is low, and it needs to continue to evolve locally
With the upgrading of consumption and the popularization of the concept of self-pleasing consumption, imported dishwashers have been widely concerned by consumers. According to the total data pushed by Aowei Cloud Network (**c), the retail sales of dishwashers from January to September 2023 were 75600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73%。
Entering 2023, ** has released a series of preferential policies for "consumption boost" and key support policies specifically for "green smart home appliances", which is in line with the transformation of residents' lifestyles, the enhancement of health and hygiene awareness, and the beginning of chasing a quality lifestyle. In 2024, the penetration rate of dishwashers will further increase and enter the field of vision of more consumers.
There are three positive factors:
At present, the penetration rate of household dishwashers in China is only 3%, which is still at a low level and has broad prospects.
The concept of disinfection and sterilization continues to attract consumer attention, and dishwashers may usher in opportunities. The high incidence of respiratory diseases this winter continues to arouse consumers' attention to household hygiene and tableware hygiene.
The rise of the "lazy economy", the dishwasher is the representative of the "lazy household appliances", and young consumers are willing to pay for the "lazy" and high-quality life. According to a survey by China State Grid, the proportion of households willing to buy a dishwasher has reached 509%。
The two major disadvantages are as follows:
As a non-rigid kitchen appliance, consumption downgrading may affect consumers' willingness to buy dishwashers.
There are still pain points in dishwashers, and the evolution of localization is insufficient. As an imported product, after the dishwasher entered the domestic market, there are still pain points such as unmatched water and electricity pipelines, difficult to have dead ends in washing Chinese dining and kitchenware, high washing water consumption, and high noise, which need to be further adapted to the domestic soil and localized.
Water purification: Towards the era of whole-house water purification
The current consumer's pursuit of quality life has made them pay more attention to the health and comfort of water. According to the total data of Aowei Cloud Network (**c), the retail sales of water purifiers in the first half of 2023 will be 9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the retail volume will be 3.65 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The overall scale of China's household water purification market in the first three quarters showed a rebounding trend, and the offline market gradually stabilized and recovered. We have noticed that with the increase in consumers' demand for water, leading brands such as Midea, Angel, Casarte, Qinyuan and other leading brands have invariably launched whole-house water purification systems, and many other brands have followed, and this trend will continue into next yearIn addition, there is still a mixed phenomenon in the water purification industry, which requires the joint attention of users and enterprises.
There are two positive factors:
Whole house water purification has become a hot word for home renovation and transformation. With the improvement of consumers' awareness of water use and water requirements, the whole house water purification has entered the field of vision of more users, and on the basis of kitchen water purification, a variety of supporting products such as pre-filters, water purifiers, water purifiers, wall-mounted water softeners, pipeline machines and other supporting products have been developed simultaneously to meet the needs of users for whole-house water purification.
The number of holdings is low, and the market prospect is broad. According to the National Bureau of Statistics' 2022 measurement data on the ownership of 100 households in the kitchen appliance category, the number of water purifiers is only 129%, at a low level, with broad development prospects.
The two major disadvantages are as follows:
The water purification market is still in the exploratory stage, but there are many brands and mixed brands. According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 3,000 domestic enterprises producing water purification equipment and more than 1,000 market brands. While many brands at different levels implant water purification into the minds of more consumers, they also bring many market chaos and hidden dangers, resulting in a decrease in consumer trust.
The homogenization of the water purification industry is serious, and the product threshold is low. There are no strong technical barriers in the water purification track, and the standardized tool-based products have made the industry enter the stage of homogeneous competition, and the materials and technologies selected for the key filtration parts have basically been known.
Written at the end: among the above four categories, the smoke stove is facing "unraveling", the integrated stove continues to be under pressure, the dishwasher is still in the introduction period, and the water purification is developing to the whole house.
Affected by the macro, the current kitchen appliances have entered the group rational cycle. As an industry strongly related to real estate, the stabilization and soft landing of the real estate industry will indeed bring pressure to the development of various kitchen appliance categories, but in the long run, each kitchen appliance brand still needs to strengthen its own strength, and look for the possibility of crossing the trough of the cycle at a time when the market share of each category is gradually concentrated on the head enterprises.
Lin Sen)