This week's road freight rates for bulk commodities**. Approaching the lunar month, with the gradual drop in temperature and the approach of the Lunar New Year, the slowdown in domestic demand caused by seasonal factors still exists, and the freight rate of bulk commodity transportation is **. However, the market still has more expectations for the start of 2024, and whether the follow-up demand can further rise requires macro policies to continue to pave the way. In 2024, the time for the convening of the National Two Sessions has been determined, and the local Two Sessions will take the lead, and some major economic provinces are still expected to shoulder the heavy responsibility, and there is still room for policy benefits.
The profits of steel mills have not improved significantly, but due to the gradual opening of winter storage, steel mills still have a demand for raw material replenishment. This week, the impact of environmental protection warning after the holiday weakened, the resumption of production of coke steel enterprises increased, the first volume rebounded slightly, and the enthusiasm of the freight market increased. In terms of coal, the intensity of domestic cold air has weakened this week, and it is difficult to boost coal demand. In terms of metals, as the off-season is getting deeper and deeper, and the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, the non-ferrous metal market is getting weaker and weaker, and the automobile transportation market as a whole is cold.
Next, let's take a look at the specific data
Commodity road transport freight rate trends
This week's bulk commodity road transport freight rate is 0333 yuan ton km, **376%。
The average daily transportation of the highway is **
0. on January 1, January 2, January 3, January 4, January 5, and January 733 yuan ton-km, 0. on January 634 yuan ton-km.
Freight rate trends for major commodity categoriesThis week's steel, coal, non-ferrous metal transportation freight rates**;Coke and iron ore transportation rates**.
Steel transportation freight ratesThis week's steel transportation freight rate is 0295 ton-kilometers, 0009 yuan ton-kilometer, a decrease of 296%。
This week's steel **range**. From the perspective of the first end, the profits of steel mills have not improved significantly, but due to the gradual opening of winter storage, the scope of production reduction remains stable. From the demand side, in the last month before the Spring Festival, with the gradual drop in temperature and the approach of the Lunar New Year, the actual demand in the market from north to south has weakened seasonally. In addition, the willingness of steel traders to take the initiative to store in winter is still insufficient, and the demand for road transportation has decreased. Therefore, this week's steel transportation freight rate**.
Iron ore transportation freight rates
This week's iron ore transportation freight rate is 0287 yuan ton-kilometer, 0005 yuan ton km, an increase of 177%。
Iron ore this week。**At the end of January, after entering January, the seasonal maintenance of foreign mines increased, and the shipment volume of this week decreased and the arrival volume increased significantly. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills after New Year's Day has become stronger, the output of molten iron in steel mills has stabilized, and iron ore has been supported by the low inventory of steel mills and the demand for winter storage and replenishment, and the demand sentiment is optimistic, and the overall enthusiasm for pulling and transportation has increased. Therefore, this week's iron ore transportation freight rate**.
Coal transportation freight ratesThis week's coal transportation freight rate is 0357 yuan ton kilometers, 0029 yuan ton kilometers, a decrease of 751%。
This week's coal **range**. At the first end of the post-holiday period, the production of some coal mines in the producing areas has not fully recovered, and the overall level is still relatively stable. On the demand side, the intensity of domestic cold air has weakened recently, the demand for power plant replenishment has not been significantly released, and the non-electricity demand is still in the seasonal off-season, mainly in the purchase of rigid demand. It is difficult for the demand side to have a big boost in the short term, and the support for freight rates is insufficient. Therefore, this week's coal transportation freight rate**.
Coke transportation freight rates
This week's coke transportation freight rate is 0361 yuan ton-kilometer, 002 yuan ton km, an increase of 587% 。
Coke of the week***The first round of coke reduction has been fully implemented, and the coke and steel game has intensified. In terms of coke enterprises, the impact of environmental protection warnings after the holiday weakened, and a small number of coke enterprises resumed production, and the volume rebounded slightly. In terms of steel mills, the current molten iron is still falling but still at a high level, the demand for coke replenishment by steel mills before the Spring Festival still exists, and the winter storage of steel mills has partially boosted the demand for coke, and the freight market has a positive demand for transportation. Therefore, this week's coke transportation freight rate**.
Non-ferrous metal transportation freight ratesThis week's non-ferrous metal transportation freight rate is 0265 yuan ton-km, 0032 yuan ton km, a decrease of 1077% 。
Non-ferrous metals of the week***In terms of copper, the transaction in the spot market remained weak, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish the warehouse was low, and the first-class copper was still unattractive. In terms of zinc, although the Red Sea incident has eased, it has not been completely resolved, and the global shipping ** disturbance still exists, and the zinc market continues to be in a downturn as the weather turns colder. In terms of tin, the Fed's optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, the U.S. market has been sluggish at the beginning of the year, the macro bearish has shrouded the market risk aversion repeatedly, the operating rate of some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has rebounded, and the downstream demand performance is sluggish. Therefore, this week's non-ferrous metal transportation freight rate**.
Intra-provincial freight rate trends in major provinces
According to the data of Wubo TechnologyThis weekInner Mongolia, Shanxi Province, Henan Province road transport freight rate
This weekInner MongoliaThe freight rate for road transport is 0288 yuan ton-km, 0032 yuan ton km, down 10%.
The main reason for the transportation freight rate in Inner Mongolia is that some of the suspended coal mines in Inner Mongolia have not resumed production this week, and the national temperature has generally recovered to a high state in the same period of the year, the release of coal demand is insufficient, and the enthusiasm for shipping is relatively average.
This weekHenanThe freight rate for road transport is 0317 yuan ton-km, 0034 yuan ton kilometers, a decrease of 969%。
The main reason for Henan's transportation freight rate** is that the three expressways in Henan began to implement differentiated toll preferential policies this week. Including: the whole line of the Henan section of the G59 Hubei Expressway, the Neixiang to Xiping section of the G40 Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway, and the S75 Sanmenxia Yellow River Road and Railway Dual-purpose Bridge, which reduces the operating cost of the driver.
This weekShanxiThe freight rate for road transport is 0281 yuan ton-km, compared with last week**003 yuan ton kilometer, a decrease of 965%。
The main reason for this week's Shanxi transportation freight rate ** is the high daily coal consumption of power plants in the peak winter stage**, but the demand for replenishment has not been significantly released. Superimposed on the end of environmental protection restrictions in many places across the country, the vehicle transportation turnover rate has increased, and the transportation capacity has increased.
Trends in freight rates for major arterial road transport
According to the data of Wubo Technology, the freight rate of the country's main trunk road transportation this weekMixed
This weekOrdosto Yinchuan Main LineThe weekly average price is 77 yuan ton, which is converted into 0310 ton-km,**118%。
This weekXinzhou to Yuncheng trunk lineThe weekly average price is 12162 yuan tons, converted into 0273 yuan ton km,**3.39%。
This weekYulinTo LinfenTrunk lineThe weekly average price is 12577 yuan ton, converted into 0284 yuan ton km, **647%。
This weekLinfento Jinzhong Trunk LineThe weekly average price is 5165 yuan tons, converted into 0346 yuan ton-km, **864%。
This weekYunchengto Handan trunk lineThe weekly average price is 11168 yuan ton, converted into 0284 yuan ton km, **256%。
This weekWeinanto Shijiazhuang trunk lineThe weekly average price is 14168 yuan ton, converted into 0229 yuan ton-km, **022%。
This weekShijiazhuang to Cangzhou trunk lineThe weekly average price is 4679 yuan ton, converted into 0328 yuan ton km, **739%。
Factors influencing the market outlook
Positives:
Caixin December 2023 released by Caixin on January 2China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) recorded 508, up from 0 in the previous month1 percentage point, which has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months. From the perspective of sub-indexes, the expansion rate of manufacturing production and demand accelerated slightly in December 2023.
On January 2, the central bank released data for December 2023China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank of China, and Agricultural Development Bank of China added 350 billion yuan in net new collateral supplementary loans (PSL).。The balance of mortgage supplementary loans at the end of the period was 3,252.2 billion yuan. In the past, PSL was mainly used to support livelihood projects such as shantytown reform, guaranteed delivery of buildings, and water conservancy projects, so the market speculated that this round of loans may flow to the "three major projects" projects.
The minutes of the Fed meeting on the evening of January 3 showed that the Fed** unanimously agreed at its December meeting last yearThe rate hike cycle that began in 2022 may be over, and federal** rates may already be at their peak。By the end of 2024, a rate cut would be appropriate.
On January 4, the latest release of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing,In December 2023, the prosperity index of China's logistics industry was 535%, up 02 percentage points, maintaining a stable and rebounding trend. Judging from the annual trend of the index, the annual average value of the logistics industry prosperity index in 2023 will reach 518%, an increase of 3 over the previous year2 percentage points.
On January 8, the domestic 3rd working day reference** rate of change was -010%, it is expected that gasoline and diesel will be lowered by 5 yuan tons, not falling below the red line of 50 yuan tons, temporarily in the stranded range, and the price adjustment window will be at 24 o'clock on January 17.
Negatives:
On January 3, the Financial Associated Press reported that 7Level 6**. So far, the impact of this ** has spread to Japan's retail, service and transportation industries. On the manufacturing side, Nippon Steel's Naoetsu plant in the world's fourth-largest steelmaker suspended operations after the ** incident.
On January 4, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024. This latest UN Economic Flagship Report**,Global economic growth is expected to grow from 27% slowed to 24%。
According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on January 6, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in December 2023 was 48%, unchanged from the previous monthRunning below 50% for 15 consecutive months. In 2023, the annual average of the global manufacturing PMI is 485%, down 33 percentage points, and the average monthly operation of the year is below 50%, and the global economic growth momentum has slowed down compared with 2022.
This article only states the author's personal views and does not represent the position of Wubo Technology).
This article is compiled and published by [Wubo Technology] Li Zihuang, and some materials**: Lange Steel Network, Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Network, Everbright**, Sina Finance, My Steel Network. The content is for the purpose of learning and communication, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete.
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