After November, A-shares changed their downward trend and showed structural strength. The sentiment of all parties is high, and they are more optimistic about the end of the year and next year, believing that A-shares have gradually come out of the bottoming stage and are expected to start a trend.
But even when it is ***, there are not a few friends who hold ** but keep stumbling. So, how to grasp the initiative in the changing market and keep up with the next wave of rare trends?
Analysis**?Analytical model?Keep up with the hot spot rotation?However, A-shares are short bulls and long bears, style switching is frequent, the investment environment is poor, small hot spots generally last for a month, and big hot spots do not exceed 6 months, which is extremely difficult for everyone to grasp.
Therefore, there is one way that is extremely important for our single mode of operation, and that is to grasp penny stocks.
Let's start by understanding what a penny stock is
To put it simply, relatively low prices can be called penny stocks.
Penny stocks have the following characteristics:
Clause.
First, the low price is a big demon, and the space for easy stretching is large
A ** rose from 5 yuan to 25 yuan, which has obviously increased by 5 times, but from a sensory point of view, it seems that 25 yuan is not so high, after all, 100 yuan stocks abound, and they will feel that there is room and can be higher;However, the ** stock rose from 100 yuan to 200 yuan, although it only doubled, but it was more difficult, giving people a feeling that the ** space is very limited. Therefore, it is easier for penny stocks to start the continuous board mode of rising again and again, and there is more space.
Second,Penny stocks are more likely to attract capital in, and the momentum is more defined
In A-shares, the bull is short and the bear is long, and in the eyes of people, the first stock has begun to overdraft the future growth, and there will be a risk at any time. Shareholders are afraid that if they buy ** shares, there will be a large ** phenomenon, so they are not firm, funds come and go, it is difficult to form a common force, and in the reciprocating transactions, ** accidentally did a pick-up man. However, penny stocks are stable and have a stronger willingness to hold firmly, so penny stocks have not only been easier to attract funds from all parties to enter, but also have a clearer momentum once they start to rise.
Third,Penny stocks can be attacked, and retreats can be defended.
There is a lot of room for * stocks, but penny stocks have the potential to skyrocket. Penny stocks are generally 3-6 yuan, with limited space and large space, which is the preferred defensive sector in a bear marketIt's another springboard for the bull market to take off. It's safer for **.
Is that a low stock a good stock?Of course not, if you buy a stock that lacks growth and is about to be delisted, or a stock that has not been shocked for a few years, it takes up funds and misses the hot spot**, you want to cry without tears. Therefore, the selection of penny stocks is also a basic point, that is, first, the company's own fundamentals are solid and have the momentum of rapid development, which can not only avoid the risk of thunder, but also grasp the rise in market value driven by the rapid growth of corporate performance. Especially in the case of the registration system, delisting may also become the norm, it is extremely important to choose a company with solid fundamentals and clear growth momentumSecond, we must be based on the hot track, so that when the hot spot comes, the stock price is likely to rise in the wind.
On this basis, we need to further focus on three dimensions, namely fundamentals, capital and sentiment.
Fundamentals mainly include the financial status and profitability of the enterprise;The capital side pays attention to the flow of funds and the liquidity of the marketThe sentiment side focuses on the mood fluctuations of investors and the market.
Therefore, when making investment decisions, we need to consider a variety of factors, including the company's intrinsic value, industry prosperity, company fundamentals, capital factors and market sentiment.
We must be a logical investor in the market to achieve a long-term plan.
Why I think SMIC, which should now be called Sinic, has investment potential, is mainly judged from the following aspects:
First, fundamentals
(1) Industry level:
1.The semiconductor industry and SMIC's new energy industry are key growth areas for the global economy, and they still maintain strong growth momentum in the long-term trend.
2.External restrictions on China's semiconductors continue to escalate, domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry is imminent, and there is huge room for enterprise development.
3.The state vigorously supports and drives a new engine of economic growth
II. II. IIAt the enterprise level:
1.Extremely competitive.
1) Industrial layout of multi-industry core chips and modules.
2) Scarce one-stop integrated foundry manufacturing capabilities.
3) Efficient digital automotive-grade smart factory.
4) Strong ** chain system.
5) The R&D team has a strong R&D team and outstanding technical advantages, as of 2023H1, the company has accumulated 246 patents, including 122 invention patents.
6) The company recorded a number of leading indicators in the first half of 2023, with its automotive IGBT chips and automotive-grade SiCMOSFETs ranking first in China's shipments, ranking first in Chinese mainland MEMS foundry revenue in 2022, and ranking fifth in China's MOSFET market share in 2022.
2.The operating performance improved rapidly, and the revenue structure continued to be optimized.
1) The chip field has been cold as a whole since the second half of 2022, but the company's 23H1 main business income reached 248.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6075%
2) 23H1 vehicle field revenue accounted for 52%, a year-on-year increase of 511%, covering more than 90% of new energy vehicle end customers, wind and solar storage and other industrial control field revenue accounted for 30%, a year-on-year increase of 72%.
3.Growth:
1) The company's own performance is growing rapidly, and from 2019 to 2023H1, SMIC's revenue is 2400 million yuan, 6200 million yuan and 18500 million yuan, 4.6 billion, 25200 million, showing explosive growth all the way, especially in 2022, the semiconductor industry will still maintain a 200% growth rate under the cold winter, which can be described as both business resilience and explosiveness.
2) Precise layout of the new energy track, the company's new energy vehicle-based products in the field have completed the introduction of a comprehensive market layout and achieved large-scale mass production;Products used in the field of industrial control, such as photovoltaic, wind power generation, energy storage, server power supply, charging piles, smart grids, servers and other high-end industrial control fields have been shipped in large quantities. At present, the income of the two is more than eighty percent.
3) The supply and demand of silicon carbide (SiC) are tight, and the company has a first-mover advantage, realizing the large-scale mass production of automotive-grade silicon carbide (SiC) MOSFETs used in high-power modules of on-board main drive inverters in the first half of 2023 (2,000 pieces per month), and will further expand the scale of mass production.
4) Deepening the layout of the industrial chain: The established subsidiary of Xinlian Power has almost accumulated industrial investment institutions under well-known domestic enterprises in the field of new energy, and the layout of the industrial chain continues to deepen.
Second, the capital side
Since August this year, A-share funds have fled, ** started a slump mode, taking northbound funds as an example, the net sales in August, September and October were 896800 million yuan, 374600 million yuan and 447900 million yuan, showing a significant net sale for several months. However, the recent trend of net selling of northbound funds has slowed down significantly, and a trend of switching to net ** has begun to appear. In November, the Shanghai Composite Index was **036%, which also reversed the previous trend for three consecutive months**.
From the perspective of the plate, after entering November, the semiconductor sector is more active, repeatedly against the market strength, looking forward to the follow-up, one is the bottom of the plate recovery is higher than expected, the high-quality target will be reflected faster, the second is the incremental demand brought by new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, it is extremely easy to pull hot spots, the third is the acceleration of domestic substitution, pulling the main engine of the economy, is the most likely to reflect the growth, attracting funds of the industry, these three factors resonate, long-term through the main line of follow-up investment, and there will be no lack of incremental funds, from ** Look, in recent days, it has also shown a state of capital inflow.
Third, the emotional side
After November, the economic fundamentals, policy and external environment gradually warmed up, driving the bottom of the recovery signs, and from a historical point of view, A-shares at the end of the year often ushered in the first place, so all kinds of funds for the end of the year and next year are more optimistic, the mood is relatively high, what is missing is just a tipping point.
To sum up, I personally believe that the current stock price of 5 yuan is in an undervalued state, whether it is the arrival of the bull market cycle or the recovery inflection point of the semiconductor sector, it is very easy to attract funds to enter, usher in take-off, if you meet the hot concept blessing, under the right opportunity, it is not impossible to open all the way to the board.