It's time for year-end wrap-up again.
Different from the past three years, the "revenge" of the 2023 year-end summary meeting in Lao Li's circle of friends has increased, especially the various annual performances, year-end performances and other fancy performances.
Compared with the recovery of ordinary people's daily life, Xinhui tangerine peel in 2023 will not be so "restored" - after several years of outbreak, the Xinhui tangerine peel market in 2023 will be slightly "powerless", and the heat driven by various gimmicks will be difficult to stimulate consumption;After the end of the huge market increment, the stock market of tangerine peel has become much larger, ushering in the sunshine and feeding flies.
It's a pity that after there are more "flies" in the market, they begin to disturb one after another.
Looking at various platforms, many small anchors are still selling craft skins, talking about it but not knowing what Xinhui tangerine peel is;People who are anxious to find market opportunities come to Lao Li to consult and enter the industry, and this kind of question can be said to be endless during 2023;There are also former waves who have just been beaten to death by the back waves to complain, saying that they will no longer touch Xinhui tangerine peel in the future... In a word, the world is profitable, and the world is profitable.
This article reviews the "2023" of Xinhui Chenpi from Lao Li's perspective, so it is not used as a reference for any investment and operation, and can be used as a conversation after dinner.
Drying tangerine peel. Let's start with December 2022, a year ago.
With the liberalization of social activities, Xinhui tangerine peel lovers began to pour into Xinhui to pick oranges again. However, under the influence of the warm winter of 2022, the climate has been quite humid for a month, with a perceived temperature of 30 and a humidity of around 70% to 80%, which is not suitable for "picking oranges and drying the skin". In the face of the rapid ripening of Xinhui mandarins in the middle and late stages, if they are picked early, it will lead to a drop in price, so the progress of harvesting and drying of Xinhui mandarins in 2022 is seriously lower than expected, resulting in a backlog of a large number of unsunburned citrus peels.
Some merchants and fruit farmers are worried that the raw orange peel will not be dried thoroughly, and the forced transportation and shipment will be stuffy (irreversible decay) in the middle, and there will be a large area of mold and moth in the later stage, so some citrus farmers do not have the conditions to store their own citrus peels, and there is a "panic price reduction" to sell the citrus peels.
Taking the Sanjiang area of Xinhui as an example, in September and October 2022, the second red mandarin orange of 8 yuan catty, and around November 14, some citrus farmers took the initiative to reduce it to 5 yuan jin sales, and its ** fell directly to the trough around 2019, while the ** in the same period of 2021 went to 10 yuan catty, and the current citrus prices in some second-, third- and fourth-tier producing areas have fallen by 50% year-on-year.
Xinhui mandarin. After the opening up in early 2023, people have been recruited, so the market's attention to Xinhui tangerine peel has ushered in a wave of rebound. This is mainly for the old peel that can be "used in", and it has met the picking season of Xinhui tangerine peel every year, because the dull industry has been stimulated, and the ** of Xinhui tangerine peel has begun**.
Especially in the Spring Festival at the end of January and the beginning of February, as the first Spring Festival to be fully opened, people's visits to give gifts increased, which also led to an increase in the market's demand for Xinhui tangerine peel, especially the demand for old peel. Therefore, the old leather ** rose in response, while the new leather ** did not improve.
Xinhui tangerine peel. Due to the climate problems in 2022, that is, the continuous rainfall in May and June 2022, the rainy situation is not conducive to the growth of fruits and is conducive to the growth of new shoots, so the harvest time of green mandarins in 2022 was delayed, and in July and August, there was a drought that lasted for more than 25 days, and then in September, when the green shoots were growing, the nutrients between the citrus fruits and the new shoots were robbed of each other, which is also the fundamental reason why the fruiting period from green mandarins to big red in 2022 was postponed.
Autumn and winter are the times when fruit trees accumulate nutrients, and together with the typical "warm winter" of November and December 2022, and the overabundance of nutrients caused by excessive fertilization, finally the warm winter at the end of 2022 stimulated the citrus trees to grow winter shoots.
In winter, citrus trees store nutrients for spring flowering, but a large area of citrus trees consumes the nutrients that should be stored after growing winter shoots, so that in the spring of 2023, many citrus trees do not bloom and are growing leaf buds. The flowering period of Xinhui mandarin is only once a year, and once the flowering period is passed, it will not bloom again, and it is necessary to wait for the flowering period of the next year, so there is a saying that 2023 is a "small year" for Xinhui mandarin production.
The old street of Jiangmen, which was deserted in the past, will be flooded with tourists from the Spring Festival to May Day in 2023.
should have fallen silent, but there was another "Hurricane". Thanks to the hit drama "Hurricane", from the Spring Festival to the Qingming holiday, it is a wave of "small climaxes" in the industry. This wave of popularity in 2023 was directly triggered by the hit drama "Hurricane", and brought fire to all elements related to TV dramas in Jiangmen. At this time, the tangerine peel merchants felt that they had grasped the "life-saving straw", and immediately kept up with all kinds of publicity, and the market heat of Xinhui tangerine peel exploded again.
The "May Day holiday" in 2023 seems to have become a "watershed" in the transformation of the tangerine peel market in Xinhui. The journey of Xinhui Chenpi's "Hurricane", which lasted for nearly 3 months, came to an abrupt end after May Day, and the market showed a significant reduction in the demand for "cliff-like" consumers' desire to buy, such as more inquiries and fewer orders.
Just after this "May Day" week, Lao Xie, who has been in the tangerine peel business for many years, said that the business suddenly "cooled". Since February this year, Xinhui Chen Pi has become popular because of the hit drama "Hurricane", which has made it run out of the traditional "off-season" in a hot state, and Lao Xie, who is ready to replenish the warehouse after selling the inventory in his hands in the past two months, has been a little hesitant, "During this period after the May Day holiday, I suddenly felt that there were a lot less ** in the store, and the number of people inquiring through online channels also fell off a cliff." ”
Boss Lai, who is also a tangerine peel merchant, also feels the same way. But unlike Lao Xie, Boss Lai has only entered the industry in recent years, running an orange orchard in Xinhui Muzhou, and will do some citrus peel business and resell some Xinhui tangerine peels every year. "In the first half of 2023, almost all of the business is regular customer repurchase, and there are not many new customers, and everyone is relying on existing customers to survive. Compared with the business of previous years, this year's Boss Lai's Xinhui tangerine peel business has not increased greatly in previous years, in her words, it is a smooth start.
The tangerine peel business run by Boss Wu in Sanjiang is much worse than last year, and even some of the hot Xinhui tangerine peel peripheral products in the early days, such as tangerine peel lemon paste and citrus tea, have also dropped sharply. "Connoisseurs are looking for ways to help their tangerine peel business, after all, the business has declined a lot since the beginning of the spring this year, compared with the growth rate of the past three years, this year can be described as 'very poor'. Boss Wu is still doing some Xinhui tangerine peel-related gift customization, as well as enterprise tangerine peel collection, etc., obviously, this year's market whether it is corporate procurement or retail has "shrunk" a lot.
Conceptual diagram of market cycles.
Lao Li, it's been a lot of difficulty to do a lot of Xinhui tangerine peel recently!"Just after the Dragon Boat Festival in 2023, a friend in the tangerine peel industry contacted Lao Li. "The goods can't be sold, some big factories and big-name dealers are cutting prices to inventory, and the first-class merchants who used to buy goods are not stocked, and the new dealers are not easy to sellThe friend said.
When the frequency of purchase of channel dealers decreases, and all levels are very sensitive to changes, it means that "the end of the market". Generally in the best time, channel providers are not too sensitive to changes because of good terminal consumption, and they do not resist a 10% or 20% increase in unit price (more rises and more sales), that is, the price of goods that can be sold will rise casually, and now add 1% **, channel providers have to shout and bargain with manufacturers.
*Another feature of the end is that it cannot be sold even if the price is reduced. The "universal price reduction" can be said to be an important sign at the end of the whole cycle. As a Xinhui tangerine peel that is hard to find in the early stage of the sharp price increase, no one cares about the price reduction now, and it may even produce selling pressure. At present, the Xinhui tangerine peel market in 2023 is in a period when the first-class system is gradually chaotic due to selling pressure.
There are not many tourists in Xinhui's local tangerine peel store.
In 2023, the "reduction in yield" of Xinhui mandarin oranges (tea branch mandarins) in Xinhui area has become a foregone conclusion, with 9 percent of respondents saying that the yield of their citrus orchards is not as good as last year, with a decrease of between 30% and 50%. "Because of the reduction in production, we think that the ** of new leather can rise a little bit more this year. The above-mentioned citrus farmer friend said.
However, some citrus farmers said that the new skins in the same period this year should be similar to previous years, "mainly because the current old skins are hoarded, we still hope to remove some old skins, and the market for new skins can be stable." ”
It should be noted that in August, Xiaoqingtang and Xiaoqingpi were stable, and the market demand was mainly based on channels and wholesale, but the entire finished product was compressed, that is, the sales volume was formed but the "running volume" declined
At the same time, the demand for "green skin" on the market demand side is increasing, and many experts said in Lao Li's interview that the demand for green skin mainly comes from some large beverage companies"Tangerine peel flavor blend"For example, the head milk tea brands, beverage brands, etc., will launch tangerine peel flavored drinks in the future, and these need to be extracted from the "green skin" rich in volatile oils.
In stark contrast to the "optimism" of citrus farmers, because the channel side is very sensitive to changes in the consumer side, most channels and brands have a "conservative attitude" towards this year's market.
At present, there is still a demand for "hoarding" on the channel side (delayed because of masks), such as Xinhui tangerine peel peripheral products such as small green mandarin tea, because of the drive of individual head tea companies, small green mandarin orange is still active in the market, but unlike in the past, the main focus of small green mandarin tea is "close to the people", and the small green mandarin tea of the head brand tea merchant is still high.
Small green mandarin shell (to make small green mandarin pu'er tea).
Yields are lower, but **steady, and slightly higher at the beginning. Taking Sanjiang, Shuangshui and other second- and third-line main producing areas as an example, Erhong fruit is generally floating up and down at "8 yuan jin" (the lowest charter field is also about 5 yuan jin) slightly higher than last year, but because the market response has not yet reached the fruit farmers, there is still a great opportunity for change in the early stage of Erhong.
The attitude of consumers in the market is generally cautious, and the behavior of "encirclement" of large-order procurement has decreased significantly. Mainly because of the decline in demand caused by consumption, as well as the impact of the entire peripheral tea mandarin market, the decline of the outer skin is obvious, which directly suppresses the demand for tea mandarin in Xinhui area and slows down the growth of the first place.
The inventory squeeze is relatively large, and the removal of sub-new skins is not ideal. In the previous Xinhui tangerine peel high **medium**bulk inventory of the industry merchants, because the new peel in the past three years is not ideal, a large number of 2021 (**optimistic inventory purchased) and 2022 (open the initial market) of the new peel in their hands have been squeezed, resulting in greater pressure on the new peel inventory of Xinhui mandarin in 2023, especially when the new peel is expected to be unsatisfactory in the future, which will lead to further pressure.
Xinhui green mandarin in September.
In 2023, the "Lao Li informal statistics" of Xinhui citrus production in Xinhui District (within the landmark range) will reduce the yield by more than 50% (the number of citrus orchards surveyed is about 50, and the average proportion distribution of each production area in Xinhui is distributed), and the actual yield reduction of some citrus orchards will be more than 70%, which is lower than the 50% reduction estimated in Lao Li's survey in early September
The "yield reduction" and "yield reduction" in 2023 are the highest in recent years, because on the one hand, the brand degree of Xinhui tangerine peel has increased after 2020, resulting in a substantial increase in the planting area in the short term, and the requirements for efficiency after capital entry have led to a change in the mode of operation. On the other hand, after the large-scale expansion (tens of thousands of acres to hundreds of thousands of acres in several years), the difference in the management level of citrus orchards in the overall production area, the frequent occurrence of extreme climate and the three-year special period, etc., have higher and higher requirements for the Xinhui citrus planting industry, and the key climate change, such as warm winter, dry spring and other conditions, is not conducive to the planting of Xinhui citrus, and the planting form after that is even more unpredictable;
Drying tangerine peel. The price of citrus in Xinhui production area is more than 20% higher than that of the first half of October, as of November 29, Lao Li collected the "non-ring core production area (Sanjiang, Shuangshui, Muzhou, Lile, etc.)" of the barge mandarin orange is generally more than 10 yuan, and the circle branch is about 50%;The barge branches in the core area (Huancheng production area) are more than 20 yuan jin, and the circle branches are more than 25 yuan jin, of which the circle branches of Meijiang "plugged mouth wai" are 38 yuan jin of the peak in recent years.
In terms of citrus prices, the low price in the early stage of November is due to the suppression of early booking, and the vast majority of citrus orchards will lower the ** to take orders, with the goal of receiving orders first, but because the reduction in production is far more than expected, some citrus orchards can not be delivered according to the scheduled amount, resulting in the orange orchards that have not been pre-sold in advance, and they are holding the goods to wait and see, resulting in the continued increase in citrus prices in late November, and the core reason is that the production reduction is far greater than expected, resulting in the result of "short supply".
At present, the decline in market demand is more obvious than the reduction in production, and Xinhui citrus can not cover the impact of the reduction in production, so the overall income of many citrus orchards has declined significantly, and there may be large-scale abandonment of cultivation and abandonment in the later stage.
2023 China Regional Agricultural Industry Brand Influence Index.
At the end of December, the 2023 Regional Agricultural Brand Development Forum and the Annual Ceremony of Regional Agricultural Brands were held in Beijing, at which the high-profile "2023 China Regional Agricultural Industry Brand Influence Index TOP 100" was officially released, and the brand influence index of "Xinhui Chenpi" in Xinhui District, Jiangmen, Guangdong Province reached 99387, ranking first in the top 100 of the index for two consecutive years.
In 2018 and 2019, Xinhui Chenpi won the fourth place in China's regional agricultural brand influence index - regional agricultural industry brand (Chinese herbal medicine industry) for two consecutive years, and ranked first in the Chinese herbal medicine industry of the index for four consecutive years in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, and this year it ranked first in the top 100 of the 2022 China Regional Agricultural Industry Brand Influence Index for the first time.
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