There are enough water pipes, and there is no way to think that the water is cheap, and the focus of Lao Tzu's work is to prevent financial risks.
As soon as the two meetings on setting the tone for next year's economic work ended, on the 15th, the central bank did two things.
The first thing is the routine of each monthMLF delivery, which conveys to the market the extent to which monetary policy will choose between "loose and tight" next.
According to the spirit of the meeting, the central bank's monetary policy goal is to "match the amount of money with the expected target of economic growth and level".
This is a new formulation that raises the importance of "** level expected targets".
According to this formulation, the subsequent monetary policy should be pegged to the inflation target, similar to that in the United States before 2008 (when the Taylor rule prevailed).Inflation is too low, cut interest rates to stimulate the economy and push up inflation, inflation is too high, raise interest rates to suppress economic heat and reduce inflation.
ps: It is strongly recommended that friends who pay attention to investment must take a look at the Taylor rule, which is the first time proposed by the central bank, but the Taylor rule has been upgraded many versions, which is easy to use, which one will be used by the central bank, which directly determines your judgment. Interested friends add the end of the article and reply to the "rules" to receive it).
Combined with the CPI growth rate in November, it was -05%, which is far from the 3% inflation target (** level) at the beginning of the year, and the central bank should move closer to easing.
However, what is surprising is that the central bank did not cut the reserve requirement ratio or even cut interest rates as expected by the market and experts, but set a new record after the daily release of 600 billion MLF in NovemberThe net investment is 800 billion.
In this regard, many people feel that 800 billion is equivalent to a 16 times, so this is a signal of central bank easing, which is a positive.
I think that's pure.
Because MLF is a loan from the central bank to the bank, the bank needs to pay interest. The reserve is the money deposited by the bank with the central bank according to the requirements, and the bank does not need to pay interest.
Free for you 500 billion and according to 25% interest lends you 800 billion for you to use, which one do you prefer?
Obviously, this MLF release just shows that the central bank is extremely restrained and does not want to be very loose.
Why are you bent on pulling inflation up but not too loose yet?
The second thing gives the answer.
That is the 15th day of the central bank's enlarged meeting, according to the spirit of the meeting, the central bank's focus is to prevent financial risks, rather than easing the economic heat.
The original words of the spirit of the meeting were:
"Prudently and effectively prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, and accelerate the construction of financial stability guarantees. ”I am afraid that everyone knows the risk part, that is, local hidden debt, real estate and small and medium-sized financial institutions, which are often mentioned in this year's documents.
Judging from the means of the central bank's resolution, it isAccelerate the establishment of financial stability guarantees**.
To put it bluntly, it is to raise some money to set up a **, and if you need to use the money to support the risk.
This was mentioned in September last year, and now it is just a meeting to urge the progress of the work.
However, in essence, the resolution of risks is still a question of who will pay for the "losses" caused by debt and who will pay for them in the end, without greatly impacting the economy as much as possible.
The reality is that no one wants to pay, no one wants to pay.
zy doesn't want to pay for the local government, strictly controls the increment, the local government is too busy to take care of itself, and the developer is waiting for the general rain. It has become that the central bank urges powerful banks to temporarily rely on replenishing capital and participating in the first place to resolve, and at the same time, the supervision of the provision of risk assets is appropriately relaxed, hoping that banks will withstand this wave of pressure with time and profits.
For banks, net interest margins fell below 18% safety line, new loans can not be released, and consumer loans have been dried up to 1 recently1% (there are coupons, but most consumer loans are generally more than 3 percentage points)...Pressure on banks is also increasing.
In addition, in addition to the focus of work,There are at least two other reasons for the central bank's easing of restraint:
First, the issue of the confidence of the RMB exchange rate on the people;
Second, the issue of positioning and policy reserves.
In the last month or so, the yuan has increased from 73 appreciated to 7Around 1, to a certain extent, the "overshoot risk" of the unilateral depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has been reversed, which can be regarded as a small victory for the state-owned banks to spend money on the RMB in the past month.
However, even so, the 3-month and 6-month forward exchange rates still show that this round of RMB appreciation still lacks sufficient momentum.
The forward rate for the first six months on Wednesday was 700xx, after the Fed stated that it was considering cutting interest rates, it became 69969, only about 100 points of appreciation, far less than the same depreciation of the yen this year.
In other words, the Fed's consideration of the benefits of interest rate cuts for the RMB is likely to remain insufficient in the eyes of the PBOC to hedge against the impact of our rate cuts on the RMB.
So, our monetary easing becameMLF water release + real estate targeted interest rate cut(Adjustment of mortgage policy in the north) - local operation.
In addition, the tone has been set very clearly after the two conferences, that isFinance plays a leading role, and money plays a supporting role.
The combination of economic take-off and inflation upward demand for money to flow into the hands of the people, and the central bank's monetary policy is difficult to achieve this purpose through lending at this time, so it is more in line with the finance, and it can also let the ammunition in their hands (interest rates and deposit reserves are the central bank's tools to regulate the economy) not run out as soon as possible and enter the zero interest rate.
In short, no matter which reason is dominant, the central bank's operation on December 15 has already revealed the hole cards:Monetary policy will not be too loose, and the prevention of financial risks is still the first priority.
So there will be no RRR and interest rate cuts?
No, there will be, but it will be slower than the market expects.
So what are the implications of this conservative action?
First, 2024 is likely to be the same as 2023, creeping forward. Even if there is an extra 1 trillion special national bonds in 2024 (a recent small essay).
Because risk prevention still dominates, and risk mitigation is delayed. The liquidity of money will only be concentrated upstream of the reservoir for debt liquidity, and will not flow to the fields to expand consumer demand.
Second, even if the RMB is in the path of the Fed's interest rate cut, it will not eliminate the depreciation pressure because the central bank does not cut interest rates.
Third, the debt bull mentioned before is likely to be a kind of slow bull.
No, foreign investors have also been crazy about domestic bonds in recent months.
According to a recent statement by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, "in recent months, foreign investors have increased their net holdings of domestic bonds to US$33 billion, the second highest in history." ”
Their logic is still that before the economic pressure is eliminated, even if you don't want to loosen monetary policy, it will definitely go in the direction of easing, and gradually lower interest rates.
In short, the author believes that conservative will not solve the problem, and in 2024, we will seek progress while maintaining stability.
2024, come on!
Finally, it is recommended that friends who pay attention to investment must take a look at Taylor's rules, otherwise you don't know what's going on when the market bets on interest rate cuts to make money, and simply thinks that "if you cut interest rates again, the bank will have no money to make, and you won't be able to offset the huge bad debts, and then the bank will have problems, and if the RRR is cut, the bank's liquidity will become weaker and weaker in its ability to deal with financial risks." ”