The real estate market is an ever-changing field, and housing prices over the past 20 years or so have brought many people the opportunity to grow their wealth, but they have also left many hidden dangers and problems. Nowadays, with the adjustment of the real estate market and the impact of policies, people are full of doubts about the development of future housing prices. In this context, economist Ma Guangyuan put forward his view that the era of real estate as the best investment product has ended, and the future housing prices will gradually return to residential attributes. For the current market value of 3 million houses, his interpretation is that the house price will be ** in the next 5 years, or even lower than the current market value.
Although Ma Guangyuan's point of view is concise and clear, the amount of information contained in it is very large. Let's analyze his theoretical basis and related economic phenomena together.
The real estate market has experienced years of prosperity, but it has also led to an oversupply of properties. According to the data, the number of commercial houses for sale in China has reached an astonishing 6400 million square meters, equivalent to more than 8 million sets of stock commercial housing for sale. At the same time, 96% of households in the country already own a property. This shows that the supply of houses has far exceeded the demand for purchases, and there is already a serious surplus in the real estate market. With the impact of the epidemic, it is more common for people to lose their incomes or lose their jobs, which has led to a significant decrease in the ability of most people to buy houses. In the past, due to people's overly optimistic attitude about future income growth, the demand for housing far exceeded the actual demand, and people are now becoming more cautious and more concerned about their actual situation. In addition, in order to curb the excessively rapid housing prices, a number of regulatory policies have been introduced, such as the central bank's "three red lines" to restrict the financing of real estate enterprises and local purchase restrictions. After years of regulation, the previous regulation policy has begun to ferment, and it is impossible to reverse the property market regulation policy in the short term.
Based on the above status quo and trends, Ma Guangyuan believes that the era of real estate as the best investment product has ended, and the future house will gradually return to residential attributes. This means that housing prices will no longer have the possibility of a large **, but will be linked to the income of residents. For a house with a current market value of 3 million, the house price will be ** in the next 5 years, or even lower than the current market value. For the 3 million houses in first-tier cities, most of them may be properties in remote areas or old buildings in the city center. Such a house may depreciate rapidly in value in a short period of time and face the dilemma of not being able to sell. About.
Although the bubble of 3 million houses in second- and third-tier cities is not as big as that in first-tier cities, the demand for housing continues to shrink because the outflow of population is greater than the inflow. Therefore, whether it is a first-tier city or.
In second- and third-tier cities, housing prices will gradually return to residential attributes in the future, which is linked to the income level of local residents.
In the face of possible future housing prices** and real estate market adjustments, individuals need to make scientific judgments about their own situation. First of all, for those who are considering buying a house, it is necessary to fully evaluate their financial situation and housing needs, and rationally judge whether to buy a house is the most suitable choice for themselves. Secondly, for those who have already bought a house, it is necessary to formulate a reasonable investment and property management strategy according to their actual situation to avoid value loss. In addition, it is also necessary to increase the regulation and control of the real estate market, so as to guide the real estate market to return to residential attributes and ensure the stability and fairness of the market.
To sum up, Ma Guangyuan's point reminds us that the real estate market has entered a new stage, and the era of real estate investment in the past is over. In the future, housing prices will gradually return to residential properties, and for the current houses, not only can they not maintain their value, but they may even depreciate. When faced with changes in the real estate market, individuals should be pragmatic and make informed decisions based on their own circumstances. ** Regulation and control should also be strengthened to guide the development of the real estate market and ensure the stability and fairness of the market. Only in this way can the real estate market better serve people's residential needs and provide stable support for social and economic development.