The major indices continued to ** this week, among them, the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext have approached the lows of the end of October, while the Shenzhen Component Index has hit a new low this week.
In fact, there is no need to look at any data problems here, what are the rumors of Peng, just look at the net outflow of more than 18 billion yuan of northbound foreign capital this week, and it has been nearly 5 months since the beginning of August when the northbound position was the largestThe total net outflow was more than 210 billion
This week, everyone has also seen the news, and I know it by looking at my trumpet, so I can't output any pessimismThere can be no "negative energy"., try to say something rational positive energy.
Judging from the northbound industry trends that I analyze on a weekly basis, since August, although the vast majority of industries have been dominated by net outflows, the particularly concentrated industries are mainly those that I have been bearish onPhotovoltaic and new energy batteries, it can be said that these two were sold from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and I don't know when to stop.
At the same time, from the perspective of northbound positions, some of their heavy positions, or industry companies with a large amount of money, have been continuously sold, that is to say, those good large companies have been smashed the most, and the so-called "long-term investors" who study fundamentals, price-earnings ratios, and income and profit growth are the worst this year, even worse than last year.
This explains why this year's ** performance is the worst, there are more than 200 ** liquidations in the first 11 months, the median decline is more than 15%, and the decline of 30%-50% is not a lot, becauseThe main thing that is smashed in the northbound is the ** heavy stocks
On the other hand, small and medium-sized enterprises, that is, the so-called garbage companies that I talked about before are high and then low, and small and then largeThe valuation is high and the plate is small, and big funds can't look down on it at all, on the contrary, this year is fine.
This is also the reason why this year's best stockholders, especially those who like to speculate, are relatively better.
A few pieces of data:The SSE 50 is down 148%, CSI 300% fell 13 this year7%, CSI 1000 fell 52%, and the CNI 2000 fell 011%。Do you see the size change?The smaller the plate, the better it performs, and the bigger the plate, the worse it performs. Of course, there are also special cases of PetroChina's four major banks used to smooth out the decline of the index.
Northbound still holds a position of 175 trillion, of course, some of them, such as Hong Kong**Settlement***Hong Kong**Settlement (**people)**, etc., are also northbound funds, but not necessarily **vests**, but some European and beautiful sovereigns** have indeed been sold, I did not inquire in detail, how many of these European and American ** still hold, and I can't understand when they will stop.
For the investment in the Middle East**, I also checked it over the weekend, and there are mainly two things that have been found so far:One is the Abu Dhabi Investment AuthorityHeadquartered in the United Arab Emirates, it has disclosed that there are only more than 20 shareholders in the top 10 (circulation), probably starting from the second quarter of 2022The other is Qatar Holdings***I invested ten years ago, but unfortunately, I only invested in Sinopec, and I haven't seen any trading action in recent years.
The following are some of the A-share companies invested by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which are for reference only and do not constitute recommendations.
Abu Dhabi currently discloses its holdings of ** A-sharesJust about 10 billionOf course, there may be some companies that have not yet entered the top 10, so the amount of capital should be greater than 10 billion.
Abu Dhabi is also included in the northbound fund, but we do not know the detailed movements of these sovereigns in the Middle East, and it is also unknown when the capacity will turn around and surpass the sovereignty of Europe and the United States.
At the moment, I will no longer dwell on the impact of northbound on A-shares, during this time, it can be said that more than 90% of the trading days have followed.
As for the northbound, no one can judge as I said.
There are still 10 trading days left at the end of the year, to be honest,I don't have much confidence that the Shanghai Stock Exchange will close in the red this year, but the Shenzhen Component Index GEM will close on the green board.
The CSI 300 and SSE 50 may be the bottom of the big level since the end of October, and they have fallen below about 3-4% respectively, and you may be kind enough to say that this error is not big, but to be honest, for me,This error is wrong, about 1%, I licked my face and said that I was wrong.
In the second half of this year, there was no expected year-end wave**, which is also quite a slap in the face, although I can say that the northbound August suddenly sold so frenziedly, and it must be blamed, but**Hawkers,Just because I didn't think about it doesn't mean I shouldn't think about it
At the moment, I still thinkThe 2,900-point line of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is the bottom of the large levelAt present, the GEM may fall below the low point of 1840 points at the end of October, but the 1700-1800 point line still has a chance to become the bottom of the large level, and the Shenzhen Component Index may fall below 9000 points at the limit, but there is not much room for it to fall, the Shenzhen Component Index is also mainly affected by the GEM.
At the moment, I can't give any valuable ** or judgment, northbound determines everything, but, after all, the weight**, especially the direction of northbound continuous position reduction, is still difficult to have any opportunities before they slow down the sell-off. So,Look more at junk stocks and think more about speculation** or small bands.
This year, I did about 4-50 **, except for a certain technology stock that did not run when looking at the risk of technology stocks in April, the rest are basically folded on these "good**" or indexes, two consumer white horses, a few months ago a small profit away, a loss of more than a dozen points cut the position, fortunately from the junk stocks to make up for it. And the worst thing in the whole year of this year is a white horse that ran away with a small profit at the beginning of the year, fell down and went to buy it back, and now it is still more than 20%, which is almost my blackest black spot this year. The rest, the index ** also has, all of them are making money and not leaving**, fortunately, there are not many sets, the market is slightly better or the trend is not difficult to make money in the future, and the benefits of the index ** are here. Of course, there is also a situation of junk stocks, but it is basically caused by the wave of smashing in September and October, and the position is low enough, so you can afford to wait, or reduce costs by doing t, and realize unhedging profits as soon as possible.
In fact, this year, I originally thought that there was a chance to achieve a 95% winning rate, but after being smashed by the north in early August, it was very uncomfortable, and from the first half of the year, I had to have a profit margin of 15-20% or even 50% before I was willing to reduce my position or sell out. In this way, it is difficult to achieve a 90% win rate for the whole year by the end of the year80-85% is considered qualified
Here is the operation of the nurse this year, but also for everyone to see, as a 20-year senior leek with a good accuracy rate of the general trend in the past, it has also been tormented in recent months, and the nurse is not the so-called contrarian and profitable on the Internet, making money is like a fairy who explores the bag,**It's not good, it's going to be**, it's going to lose money, and it's uncomfortable.
I didn't want to post today, because I can't give particularly useful information, the north direction is not reversed, and it's useless for you to analyze it to the sky, andBeixiang's emotions, like a girl's thoughts, can't be guessed.
For the next 2 years, I still have big expectations, although I also scold from time to time in my mouth, but it is impossible for the nurse to be bearish at the momentBecause this position is bearish and immoral, but I can't get up in the short term, no one can say, I don't want to feed the chicken soup, I don't drink it myself.
It is more difficult for the people this year, of course, we don't need to ridicule, some people who can't hold on to it lose 50-60% of the meat to redeem it, I don't encourage it, after all, it's like this, compared to a little more in the short term,In the long run,It is highly probable that the net value in the next 2 years will be higher than the current one
Okay, that's it, I'm also annoyed, sitting in front of the computer every day, staring at the northbound buy or sell, and then waiting for the position to have a chance to suddenly get an erection, do a t or something, or have a high profit to sell, there is a chance to smash the market to pick it up low, there is no good way.
Good luck, everyone!