It's not easy to be original, like, follow and share, oh, it's forbidden without permission**!
Today is Thursday, December 28Corn is too difficult, the market has just improved a little, the result is directly polarized situation, yesterday Shandong three or four a day, although there is a small ** in the Northeast, but the follow-up lack of obvious support, the previous article we said, at this stage of the purchase of grain reserves on the market ** pull up effect remains to be seen, and Shandong down the Northeast rise of the situation is destined to the Northeast ** road difficulties, after all, Shandong and North China is the main sales area of Northeast grain, and yesterday Beigang single-day arrival broke through 120,000 tons, which can reflect that the current mentality of the main body of grain is still not much improved!
At present, the only good news in the corn market is that I don't know the true and false one-time increase in reserves of 4.5 million tons, and the negative factors of the market have not changed in any way, first of all, although the grassroots farmers are reluctant to sell, but the closer to the New Year means less time to ship, followed by the overall circulation of the market is sufficient, and enterprises are not in a hurry to build a large-scale warehouse, the situation has been oversupply, the third is that the business is slow to build a large warehouse, missing this vital link, it is destined to fall and difficult to rise, and corn In order to have a real reversal, there are two prerequisites: first, China Grain Reserves has begun to intervene in the market on a large scale --- purchases, and second, the progress of grain sales by grassroots farmers must be at least 50 percent, and it will be completed before the end of the year!
In the coming week, it is worth paying attention to the Northeast region, to see how many days it can last, there are two small changes in the Northeast region, one is that the deep processing enterprises have begun to exploratory, and the other is the situation that the businessmen, especially the drying towers, have successively increased their prices, but this situation believes that the sustainability is not destined to be long, and it will eventually return to the essence of supply and demand, that is, the problem of sales!As for the question of whether the auction of imported corn will be stopped, at least at present, there is no announcement to continue the auction from the ** of the grain reserves, but to be clear, from the perspective of the volume and transaction of imported corn, the impact on the spot corn ** is not large, so don't believe that the corn will rise sharply after the stop of the auction of imported corn!
Personally, I believe that although the Northeast region is deeper, causing resistance from grassroots farmers, it is still difficult to change the general trend of the entire corn, and for North China and Shandong, the temperature has risen this week, some corn is facing the risk of resurgence, some farmers still have to sell grain, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is relatively sufficient, coupled with the rampant substitutes, the weak operation or will be the trend in the short term!
Coming to January 2024, it is expected that there will be a wave of more concentrated volume in the market, if the company's stocking cycle is opened in advance, then the probability is mainly based on the weak operation, if the company does not start stocking in advance, then it will be a big drop again, as for how much it falls, one looks at whether the policy is supported, and the second looks at how much this roundHowever, we are not optimistic about the corn market in January!For the trend of corn before the Spring Festival, we believe that the possibility of a sharp rise is extremely low, so the main body of grain holding with shipment plans will run in the face of the stage, don't be greedy!
In the last two days, wheat has started to show tentative **, below 145 yuan Jin enterprises began to catch up with a larger pace, coupled with the recent reduction in the phenomenon of grain storage wheat out of the warehouse, the panic mentality of the main body of grain has been alleviated, which is conducive to the recovery of wheat ** and the support of the floor price!Judging from the comparison of shipments and acquisitions of milling enterprises, the operating rate has increased, even if individual enterprises are affected by the environment and weather to stop harvesting, but with the significant reduction of food sources in the market, it is also an obvious trend!
For the later wheat **, we think there is still a chance, even if it is affected by the epidemic, consumption began to collapse in an all-round way, but after all, it is inseparable from eating, drinking and Lazar, the importance of rations is undoubted, as for the Spring Festival, I think that there must be a **opportunity, for the auction threat of grain storage, everyone can understand, the impact before the Spring Festival is not large, even if it is opened after the Spring Festival, it is necessary to pay attention to the delivery strength, the auction floor price and the transaction situation!This week, the focus is on whether the arrival of enterprises continues to increase. As corn enters a stable or even phased stage, wheat has ushered in the right time!Finally, I would like to remind you that all kinds of news are flying in the market at present, and everyone must keep their eyes open and carefully distinguish the true from the false, and don't listen to the wind or rain!
Note: The above analysis of the current corn and wheat market** represents a personal view only. It is for reference only, not as an investment basis, and different opinions are welcome to leave a message to discuss. Investment is risky,** caution is required