In the N-type iteration wave, TOPCon takes the lead, and intensive projects have been implemented this year, and the scale is expected to be larger next year.
As another representative route of n-type technology, how can heterojunction deal with the attack between the two, and how will enterprises strengthen their confidence and promote new breakthroughs in heterojunction production capacity, efficiency, and cost reduction?
The production capacity is slow to land, and the market demand is rising
Compared with the intensive production of TOPCON, the progress of heterojunction is relatively slow. From the perspective of the enterprise camp, although many leading companies said that TOPCon and HJT have reserves, the current companies with substantial progress are mainly more than ten companies such as Huasheng, Risen, iKang Technology, Jinneng, King Kong Photovoltaic, State Power Investment, and Guosheng.
From the perspective of the project production progress, since the beginning of this year, heterojunction cell projects including Huasheng, Risen Energy, Mingyang, State Power Investment, Boamax Technology, Quanwei Photovoltaic, Liansheng Photovoltaic and other heterojunction cell projects have been put into operation one after another.
Among them, Huasheng, which has a fast process, is expected to achieve a mass production scale of 20GW by the end of the year.
According to the statistics of public information, it is for reference only.
According to InfoLink, the global heterojunction production capacity will be about 50GW in 2023, accounting for 10% of the N-type cell production capacity8%, and it is expected that more than 80GW of heterojunction projects will be expanded in the whole industry in 2024.
Although in terms of mass production scale, heterojunction lags behind TOPCon. However, from the perspective of industry competition, the involution of TOPCON is more intense, and with the acceleration of production capacity at the end of this year and next year, the involution may be further intensified.
Judging from the recent bidding of central enterprises, the winning bid of N-type modules is getting closer to the cost line, such as the SDIC Pingding 100MW photovoltaic module equipment centralized procurement project, and the minimum winning bid of N-type TOPCON double-sided double-glass with 575WP and above has reached 101 Yuan Watts.
On the other hand, the overall available production capacity in the current industry is relatively small, and the involution between enterprises is not as intense as TOPCon. In September this year, the State Power Investment Corporation of the State Power Investment Group () Material and Equipment Branch, Electric Energy Tesco (Beijing) Technology announced the bidding results for the 223 annual e-commerce procurement, and among the 900MW heterojunction products, the company won the bid in 123-1.48 yuan w.
In the end market, the demand for heterojunction is gradually rising. According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, the State Power Investment Corporation and China Nuclear Huineng have launched the centralized procurement of heterogeneous junction bidding sections, and the overseas market demand is relatively strong, and Risen Energy, Huasheng New Energy, and Akcome Technology have all obtained GW-level customer orders. Especially in the European and Australian markets, heterojunction modules are favored and are used in ground power stations, industrial and commercial distribution, and residential scenarios.
It is understood that in February this year, Tongwei signed a three-year cooperation framework agreement with Energy 3000 for its first-class heterojunction modules.
In April 2023, INERCOM, a well-known European EPC company, signed a framework agreement with Huasheng to purchase a total of 1High-efficiency heterojunction modules above 5GW.
In June, Risen Energy signed a contract with OSW, an Australian optical storage integrator, to supply a total of 1GW heterojunction Fuxi modules from 2023 to 2025.
On November 7, iKang Technology once again signed a 1GW HJT PV module sales contract with a European customer, with a cumulative order scale of 2GW.
Efficiency climbs quickly, and the added value is great
Different from the heterojunction production capacity, in terms of efficiency improvement, enterprises have made frequent breakthroughs, which have pushed the module power into 70 times.
In November, Jiejia Weichuang announced that the average power of its G12-132 heterojunction module reached 72065W, conversion efficiency 232%。
On November 10, TUV SÜD test, based on the standard size of the 210-66 version, the front power of Tongwei THC module reached 74562w；At the same time, the positive conversion efficiency of the module reaches 240%。
Recently, certified by TÜV SÜD, the output power of Huasheng Himalaya G12-132 heterojunction module reached 750544W, conversion efficiency 2416%。It is understood that this is the result of only using the double-sided microcrystalline heterojunction process plus 20bb, if 0bb and copper electroplating are superimposed, it is expected to reach 775w+ in the future.
In addition to the advantages of high efficiency, the lower carbon footprint is also one of the reasons why users choose HJT products, and under the global trend of carbon emission reduction, the HJT market space is broader. It is understood that in terms of polysilicon unit consumption, HJT has obvious advantages over PERC and TOPCON technologies due to its thinner wafer thickness and higher efficiency. And in terms of power consumption, HJT also has a clear advantage over TOPCon. It is understood that the carbon footprint of Huasun G10-144 module has been as low as 366GW.
On the other hand, from a future perspective, the theoretical ultimate efficiency of crystalline silicon cells is 294%, and the goal of photovoltaic power generation is to reduce the cost to 1 cent kWh, which requires the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic products to be increased to more than 30%, which requires the development of tandem technology. Huasheng believes that heterojunction-perovskite tandem cells are the best or even the only choice for large-scale and low-cost production. iKang Technology also said that heterojunction is naturally suitable for lamination because of its double-sided symmetrical structure.
It is understood that Huasheng is currently mass-producing the R&D platform of heterojunction-perovskite tandem cells, and has realized the uniform preparation of large-area perovskite layers of M6 size.
Not long ago, LONGi also announced to the industry that its self-developed crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem cell has an efficiency of 339%, a world record.
According to Huasheng's **, 2027 may be a key year for the future development of the photovoltaic industry, and perovskite tandems are expected to begin large-scale application.
Tie topcon in 2024
Breaking through the cost bottleneck is the core of the large-scale development of heterojunction. It is understood that the current non-silicon cost gap between HJT and PERC is less than 01 yuan W, the difference with the non-silicon cost of TOPCon is nearly 5 cents W. The consensus of enterprises is that it is expected that the cost of HJT will be greatly optimized in 2024, and the comprehensive cost performance can be on par with TOPCON.
The companies participating in the survey believe that the current path of heterojunction cost reduction has been relatively clear, of which metallization cost reduction is the core.
It is understood that the cost reduction of metallization is mainly through the optimization of the grid line pattern, the silver-clad copper and OBB process, and the copper electroplating method to greatly reduce the amount of silver paste. In terms of the grid pattern, the number of grid roots and the opening of the bar line are optimized synchronously, and the use of silver paste can be reduced by 15%-20% in the state of equal efficiency.
The silver consumption content of silver-clad copper paste on the front and back is at the level of 50% and 40%, and the silver-clad copper paste is expected to further reduce by 30% at this stage.
In terms of grid reduction, 0BB can save about 30% of silver paste compared to conventional SMB, paving the way for the application of silver-clad copper paste with 30% silver content. Sterling silver paste +0bb can reduce the cost by more than 8 points W, and silver-clad copper +0bb can reduce the cost by 4-5 points W. In addition, 0bb adopts ultra-fine and ultra-flexible welding strip, which can save more than 10% of the welding strip, and after the welding strip becomes thinner, the adhesive film will become thinner, and finally the adhesive film can be saved by 30%.
In terms of thinning, the current mainstream silicon wafer thinness of heterojunction is 120um, and the 110um silicon wafer is in the pilot test and ready for mass production. It is understood that Huasheng is developing 90 micron ultra-thin silicon wafers into the heterojunction production line, which will further reduce costs.
In addition, the introduction of indium-free targets and the use of zinc oxide and tin oxide instead of indium can further optimize costs.
Judging from the current progress, iKang has achieved mass production of 110 m single-sided microcrystalline HJT cells, and is expected to achieve mass production of double-sided microcrystalline in the first half of next year.
According to Huasheng, the average efficiency of its Xuancheng Phase IV battery mass production is 258% and 26 percent of the champion's efficiency2%。By the end of 2023, with the mass production of 0BB technology, the cost of heterojunction wafer-cell-module will be on par with TOPCON. According to the latest news, the new Huasheng 210R module will be released soon, and there will be new progress in "reducing costs and increasing efficiency".
On the whole, the cost issue is the key to the large-scale commercialization of HJT, and the industry believes that by 2024, the equipment investment of the whole HJT industry chain will be on par with TOPCON. BC is a platform technology, and the combination of BC with TOPCON and heterojunction technology is the direction of development in the future.