At the beginning of 2023, there was a better spring offensive, and there was also a more decent one. However, it has since fallen below the 3,000-point integer mark three times, and recently fell below the 2,900-point integer mark. In the last two trading days of the market, the market has seen a wave of strong** movements. Looking back on the ** in 2023, on the whole, there has been a continuous decline in the A** field, the money-making effect is poor, many investors have lost their investment, and everyone's confidence in the market is insufficient. Looking forward to 2024, many people are also looking forward to it. In the past two days, Mr. Wang Hongyuan, the strategic consultant of Qianhai Open Source, shouted on the screen, and Wang Hongyuan, the strategic consultant of Qianhai Open Source, once again shouted that Hong Kong stocks and A shares have bottomed out. He said that historically, Hong Kong has been ahead of the A** market many times, peaking at the end of the bull market than A-shares, and bottoming out at the end of the bear market. It has been 13 trading days since Hong Kong's ** bottomed out, and six trading days since the A** market bottomed out. The time for the bottoming out of this round of Hong Kong** is December 11, 2023, and the time for the bottoming out of the A** field is December 21, 2023. The market has seen a strong ** in these two days, drawing a close to the ** in 2023.
China's economic recovery is expected to be further strengthened in 2024, and the driving force for economic growth comes from the policy force. It is expected that the policy will be enlarged in 2024. On the other hand, there is also a relatively large room for valuation recovery in the capital market. In 2023, a lot of negative factors have been fully reflected, and in 2024, there will be no pole Tailai, and many high-quality companies will usher in the opportunity of recovery. We held our 2024 investment strategy report meeting as early as November 3. My view is very clear, I think that in 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to launch a bull market**, and we are now standing at the beginning of a new bull market. Today, I will give you an analysis through several aspects, including the economic situation at home and abroad, changes in policies, capital market reform and the transfer of residents' savings, and finally tell you how to do a good job in value investment with Chinese characteristics. At a time when the market is still near the historical bottom, value investing is crucial. Because in the past three years, many people have questioned value investment due to the relatively large target of value investment, and they also hope to tell you how to do value investment in the a** field through live broadcast
First of all, let's pay attention to the changes in the global situation, in the past three years, the global economy has experienced a lack of recovery momentum. Because of the impact of the epidemic, coupled with the sharp rise in oil and natural gas caused by geopolitics, it has affected the strength of the global economic recovery. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates violently 11 times in a row on monetary policy, and it has been a tight monetary policy. Raised the benchmark interest rate in the United States directly from 0 to 525%~5.A high of 5%. Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not make it clear whether interest rates will be raised later, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate hikes have now ended, and 2024 will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts. The Fed is now widely expected to cut rates three times in 2024, and Goldman Sachs expects five rate cuts.
The Fed's monetary policy shift will have a certain impact on the global capital market. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times in a row in the past year or so, and the first thing that has affected non-US currencies is that the US dollar index once hit a record high, and non-US currencies have depreciated, and the RMB has depreciated to nearly 7 against the US dollar4。After November, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates in December. The Fed's rate hike cycle has actually come to an end when it raised interest rates in July, and the yuan has started to show strength**, returning to 71 or so. In 2024, the Fed will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, whether it is three or five interest rate cuts, the RMB may continue to appreciate and return to the sixth. This is very beneficial to boost the confidence of global capital in Chinese assets. The Fed ended its rate hike cycle because inflation in the United States has now come down from its high levels and inflation is no longer the Fed's most important monetary policy target at the moment. The US CPI has fallen from a maximum of around 9% to around 3%, which is already trending down, and may return to below 3% in 2024.
At present, the Fed is mainly concerned that the current interest rate level is still relatively high, and if it is maintained for a long time, it may greatly increase the burden on American enterprises and American residents, which is undoubtedly an issue that the Fed needs to consider now. At the same time, the United States has seen a large number of indices in 2023, with the three major stock indexes either hitting record highs or approaching record highs. Entering 2024, if the Fed does not make a timely monetary policy pivot, it may cause U.S. stocks to peak and fall. Since more than 30% of Americans' household assets are in ** and **, once ** falls back from a high level, it will form a strong money-losing effect, which will be a big blow to American consumption. Consumption is the most important engine of U.S. economic growth, accounting for about 70% of U.S. GDP growth. Therefore, the performance of the United States will have a great impact on American consumption and even the American economy.
In the past two years, the international situation has been turbulent, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended, and during the National Day, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has recurred, and there is a shadow of the United States behind it. The United States does have its strategic purpose in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and through the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it has weakened its important adversary, Russia, and at the same time, it has also weakened the European Union and the euro, making the EU more dependent on the United States and more dependent on NATO to provide security protection. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is ostensibly a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but it is essentially a conflict between the United States and Russia. In terms of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States has even taken a bias in favor of Israel and turned a blind eye to the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, which has also aroused the attention of many countries in the world and the United Nations. However, at present, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not over. There will be certain signs of easing in China-US relations in 2023, especially the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state at the APEC meeting, which has become the focus of the world's attention at the APEC meeting. The fact that five US dignitaries have visited China one after another also shows that Sino-US relations are actually a relationship of cooperation and competition, not just a relationship dominated by conflict, as some people understand. Because China and the United States are very hot in terms of **, the ** amount has reached more than 700 billion US dollars a year, which is the largest ** relationship in the world. It is also necessary to maintain political contacts, although politically not as hot as economically, and sometimes cold, but not to pose the threat of war. Because China and the United States are both nuclear powers, this maintains a kind of strategic deterrence and strategic balance. In fact, you should not worry too much about the deterioration of the relationship between China and the United States, and I think there may be further improvement in 2024. 2024 is the first year in the United States, and the first election in the United States may make some politicians in the United States more fierce in their words, which is to cater to voters to pull votes. But in fact, they have to pay attention to Sino-US relations.
Mr. Wang Hongyuan, strategic consultant of Qianhai Open Source, has a very subtle metaphor for the political system and economic system of the United States, the United States is politically one person, one vote system, and everyone has the same voting rights in democratic elections in the United States, the world's richest man Bill Gates, Musk, Warren Buffett and Bezos, etc., were once the richest people in the United States, and their vote is also a vote. And as long as an American homeless person is a citizen of the United States, he has the right to vote. After all, the elite is in the minority, and the richest people in the United States account for only 1% of the entire population. If you want to be a governor, if you want to be a **, you have to cater to the 99% of voters in speech, which means that politically the United States is actually the first to govern the country. So you will see that in order to win votes, American politicians are more strict with China, so as to cater to voters. But in terms of economy and trade, the United States is one share, one vote, people with wealth, people with the best, only have the right to speak in economic and trade policies, ordinary people do not have any right to speak. We see that most of the American entrepreneurs are very friendly to China, such as Musk, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and Munger, who has just left us, they are very friendly to China, and they hope that China and the United States can shake hands and make peace.
Cooperation between China and the United States will benefit both sides, and fighting will lead to two defeats. The world is so big that it can accommodate two great countries, China and the United States, and this is what I once heard from Warren Buffett at a shareholder meeting. Munger thinks it was extremely stupid for Trump to wage a ** war against China in 2018. Therefore, the international conflict in 2024 will still be turbulent locally, and although there are certain variables in Sino-US relations, it should not be exaggerated. This is because many investors, especially overseas investors, may be overly sensitive to the Sino-US relationship. As mentioned earlier, the outflow of foreign capital out of A-shares in the second half of 2023 once exceeded 100 billion yuan. However, I believe that these are temporary, and these outflows of foreign capital are actually to avoid the exchange risk caused by the short-term depreciation of the RMB. Because the Fed is expected to raise interest rates very strongly, if foreign capital does not flow out, it will suffer relatively large exchange losses in terms of foreign exchange, and the A** field will indeed perform poorly in 2023, so there is an outflow of funds. But in 2024, the process will be reversed, that is, the Fed will change from a rate hike cycle to an interest rate cut cycle, the deviation between the monetary policy of China and the United States will be narrowed, and the RMB may appreciate sharply against the dollar, or even return to the figure six. After the appreciation of the RMB, it will attract foreign capital to flow back into RMB assets, which should be a phenomenon we can see in 2024, and the amount of foreign capital flowing into the A** field in 2024 should be more than 200 billion yuan. (The views are for reference, investment needs to be cautious, source: Internet).