Real estate in 2023 can be summed up in 4 words-Accident at the show
It's like having a stage, the people on the stage beat gongs and drums, and the eighteen kinds of martial arts are dazzling, and even come up with a unique skill at the bottom of the box. However, the audience under the stage responded mediocrely, and the sparse applause was rare, not to mention the real gold ** reward.
This is not a very appropriate analogy, but the real estate industry and property market in the past year do have such a meaning:The policy is wave after wave, and it makes people's blood boil;The transaction is a chicken feather, and the real estate people only feel cold in their hearts.
In 2024, can real estate still be saved?
part 01
The first half of 2023
Waiting for the dawn of "the most tightly regulated in history".
Do you know how many policies have been introduced across the country in 2023 in order to "loosen" real estate?
In 2023, more than 300 provinces and cities across the country will issue more than 700 easing policies. At the macro level, there are no less than dozens of blockbuster news involving real estate. Ministries and commissions that have spoken out include: the People's Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Supreme Court, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the Central Bank, the Bureau of Statistics, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, the State Administration of Taxation, etcMultiple ministries and commissions jointly spoke, which shows the attention of the high-level.
Throughout 2023, the strength of the policy on real estate at the ** level can be said to be"Weak first and then strong".
In the first half of the year, many policies were aimed at optimizing and adjusting the current system and standardizing the market order.
For example, in March, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "National Property Management Civilized Industry Standard";In May, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration for Market Regulation strengthened the management ...... of the real estate brokerage industry from ten aspectsIn addition, it is to repeatedly emphasize that "housing is not speculation", and it is necessary to do a solid job in "ensuring the delivery of buildings".
So, is there any financial support for the supply side and the demand side of real estate?Of course there are, like:
In January, the relevant departments drafted the "Action Plan for Improving the Balance Sheet of High-quality Real Estate Enterprises";
In February, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) relaxed restrictions on overseas fundraising and launched a pilot project for private investment in real estate
In March, the state issued a notice on "Standardizing and Efficiently Doing a Good Job in the Application and Recommendation of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) Projects in the Infrastructure Field", which is good for commercial real estate
In May, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the LPR by 10bp for maturities of more than 5 years
But we have to admit that these policies are far from enough.
Therefore, the overall performance of the real estate market in the first half of the year is "not strong": after the pent-up demand was released at the beginning of the yearFailed to stay active；The sales area of newly built commercial residential buildings in key 100 cities in JuneA year-on-year decrease of more than 20%., downward pressure highlighted;The year-on-year decline in the area of new housing starts and construction area across the country expanded;Newly built residential buildings in 100 cities are basically sideways, and second-hand houses are second-handed14 consecutive months**；The national land market is still sluggish, and the supply and demand scale of residential land in 300 citiesThe year-on-year decline was more than 30% ......
All in all, in the first half of 2023, the real estate industry has not stopped the downward trend because of some "scratching the itch" policy support, and the market is calling for greater policy support.
part 02
The second half of 2023
Real estate is the most relaxed stage in the past 10 years
The turning point came in July.
First, on July 10, the central bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and AdministrationThe period of use of some policies of the "16 Articles of Finance" has been extended。Four days later, the deputy governor of the central bank also publicly stated that he "supports and encourages commercial banks to negotiate with borrowers independently" to repay housing loans early.
Then on July 24, the Politburo meeting was held, and the meeting made a judgment of "adapting to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market".Set the tone for the real estate landscape, without mentioning "housing not speculation".
Then, on July 27, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development publicly released the important content of the recent enterprise symposiumIt is proposed that "three implementations and three active participation" are proposedIt took the lead in sending a signal that the real estate regulation policy should be optimized, which promoted the stabilization and rebound of the real estate market.
Since then, many ministries and commissions have clarified the direction of real estate policy optimization, and the relaxation policies in various places have continued to land, and many restrictive policies have been optimized or gradually withdrawn. For example:
In August, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) clarified that the refinancing of listed real estate companies is not subject to the restrictions of breakage, net breakage and loss, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other three departments jointly promoted the implementation of the policy measure of "recognising the house without subscribing to the loan" for the purchase of the first home
In September, the interest rate of the first home loan was lowered in batches;
In October, the first financial work conference was held, emphasizing the need to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination
In November, the central bank and other three departments held a symposium of financial institutions, put forward the "three not less than" indicators, or drew up a "white list of 50 real estate enterprises";
In December, the National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held, and a new mechanism for the linkage of "people, housing, land and money" elements should be established
It is not difficult to see that whether it is a down payment, an interest rate reduction, a mortgage or a mortgage, etcDemand-side policies, or the renewal of the "16 financial articles", "three not less than", and "50 real estate enterprises white list".and other supply-side relief measures, all of which will be intensively introduced in the second half of 2023, aiming to lift real estate**.
Not to mention locally.
More than 700 easing policies have been introduced by more than 300 provinces and cities across the country, most of which were introduced in the second half of the year. On the demand side,The core first- and second-tier cities have relaxed the "four restrictions", most second-tier cities have lifted sales and purchase restrictions, some cities have reduced or exempted transaction taxes, a large number of provinces and cities have relaxed provident fund loans and issued housing purchase subsidies, and the standard ...... for ordinary houses has been adjusted in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen
But has the property market recovered?
Although industry insiders generally believe that the current policy environment is close to the most relaxed stage in 2014, the pace of repair of the real estate market is still relatively slow, the new housing market is still in a state of adjustment, and the industry as a whole still maintains the pattern of the bottom.
In other words:There was improvement, but it was not noticeable enough.
part 03
Outlook for 2024
What else is needed for real estate recovery?
For a whole year, ** and hundreds of local policy stimulus, why did real estate not recover strongly?
1. China's economy is still in the recovery stage, residents are worried about future income expectations, and confidence in buying houses has not yet recovered, which is the biggest problem facing the real estate industry.
As a pillar industry of the national economy, real estate has also suffered a negative impact due to the market's pessimistic expectations for the macroeconomy, although China's economic macro in 2023 is improving, but the cumulative investment in real estate development is -9 year-on-year4%, and this temperature difference also amplifies people's perception of real estate stalling.
In the final analysis, the premise of real estate recovery is that the country's economy recovers, residents' incomes increase, and jobs are stable, so that they can save and dare to borrow, so as to gradually restore confidence in real estate.
2. Policies continue to be introduced, but it still takes time for transmission, and how to ensure the implementation of policies is also a major problem. Moreover, the real estate industry also needs more precise and powerful policies to achieve a "breakthrough".
On the one hand, measures such as "three not less than", "three arrows of financing" and "white list of real estate enterprises" need to be truly put into effect, so that the supply side can get real financial support. On the other hand, the "policy toolbox" can also be opened, such as reducing taxes and fees on housing transactions, reducing deed taxes, and giving subsidies to families with many children to buy houses.
3. In the context of population aging and slowing down urbanization, the real estate industry is in a transition period of building a new development model and establishing a new mechanism for the linkage of "people, housing, land and money", and it is inevitable that it will continue to run at the bottom.
As for how to develop, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has repeatedly pointed out the direction, such as the implementation of the "three major projects" construction, which is an important part of the reform of housing diversified supply, and an important starting point to fill the decline in real estate investmentFor example, "make efforts to build good houses" (promote the demand for improved housing into the market) and so on.
4. Differentiation is still intensifying, with differentiation between cities and real estate companies. While the industry pattern is constantly reconstructing, it has also profoundly affected land finance and put real estate in a predicament.
As we all know, the development of China's real estate industry and land finance are actually "mutually exclusive". Therefore, the policy itself needs to take one step at a time, adding too quickly will cause a bubble, and reducing too quickly will accelerate the bursting of the bubble, which is not conducive to the de-risk and soft landing of the industry.
For example"Limit"., completely liberalization will lead to some real estate companies in order to survive the price reduction, and then affect housing prices and land prices, then the local investment and financing platform that is closely related to land finance will "thunder", local finance is bound to be chaotic;And there is"Limited".The first-tier cities with the ability to maintain the value of real estate do not dare to let go, otherwise the purchasing power of other cities may frantically pour in, causing housing prices in second- and third-tier cities to also plummet, causing financial and fiscal risks.
The ** Economic Work Conference held from December 11 to 12 has also set the tone for economic work in 2024Seek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then breakIn the real estate field, it is necessary to resolve industry risks, promote the "three major projects", and accelerate the construction of a new development model.
At the end of the day, policy is not omnipotent, and policy is not useless.
In 2024, it is inevitable that the real estate will face regulation and control, the differentiation between cities will continue, and of course policies will be introduced. Real estate wants to return to the "** era", I'm afraid it's not realisticHowever, in the context of "overshoot and overfall" in the past and the continuous development of current policies, high-quality and steady development can still be expected.
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