Editor's note: At this stage, our country is in a stage of rapid development, but it is also facing some prominent contradictions such as resource shortage and environmental constraints, and photovoltaic power generation is a relatively clean energy source that uses sunlight to generate electricity, which can effectively deal with the problem of energy shortage in our country. In recent years, the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China has made outstanding contributions to optimizing the energy structure, ensuring energy quality, reducing the energy cost of enterprises, and promoting the increase of farmers' income.
Compared with developed countries in Europe and the United States, China's photovoltaic power generation industry started late. In 2011, the state issued the "Notice on Improving the Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation Feed-in Tariff Policy", which proposed for the first time to formulate a unified national benchmark feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation and established a price reduction mechanism, and the feed-in tariff for photovoltaic power generation projects is higher than the part of the benchmark feed-in tariff for local desulfurization coal-fired units, according to the "Trial Measures for the Management of Renewable Energy Power Generation and Cost Sharing" The relevant regulations have been solved through the additional renewable energy electricity price levied by the whole country, which has officially opened the prelude to the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry.
In July 2013, the National Energy Administration issued the "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry", and in August of the same year, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Leveraging the Role of Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry", making it clear that the photovoltaic subsidy was officially converted into a kilowatt-hour subsidy.
According to the China Electricity Council, by the end of 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China reached 392.61 million kilowatts. With the explosive growth of the installed scale of photovoltaic power generation, China's photovoltaic power generation has also continued to increase rapidly. In 2022, China's photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 503.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5391%。In the first three quarters of 2023, the country's photovoltaic power generation capacity was 436.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
Barriers to entry in the photovoltaic power generation industry
Technical barriers. All aspects of the construction of photovoltaic power plants, including the provision of high-quality raw materials for the production of photovoltaic power plants (photovoltaic modules and accessories), the design and construction of photovoltaic power plants, and the subsequent intelligent management and operation and maintenance, involve the comprehensive application of multiple disciplines, and it is often difficult for new entrants to master all of them in a short period of time, and the technical threshold of the industry is high.
Market development barriers. The acquisition of high-quality project sites is the core competitive factor of the photovoltaic power station industry, and project sites with longer solar sunshine hours, good on-grid consumption conditions, and higher benchmark electricity prices can help power station investors obtain higher investment returns. Photovoltaic power plant operators with strong market development capabilities can lock in high-quality solar photovoltaic power generation projects in advance in areas with good optical resources, good Internet access conditions and good policy conditions, so as to achieve a rapid increase in their installed capacity.
The carrying capacity of the distribution network is insufficient, and how to participate in the grid transaction has become a problem.
At present, 31 provinces, municipalities and regions in China have clarified the renewable energy development targets during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, of which the total installed capacity of new photovoltaic capacity has reached 390GW. In 2021, 54 new photovoltaic power stations will be added in China88GW, of which distributed PV reached 2928GW, accounting for 55%, the installed capacity of distributed PV exceeded that of centralized for the first time, and its cumulative installed capacity has accounted for one-third of all PV grid-connected capacity. According to Tsinghua University, there are nearly 2.8 billion kilowatts of potential PV capacity on the roofs of urban and rural buildings in China, and distributed PV may account for 60%-70% of the PV target in the future. At present, the accelerated decline in the price of upstream polysilicon has led to a significant increase in module prices, and the economics of PV terminal power stations have become prominent. With the integration of a large number of distributed photovoltaic construction in urban and rural construction, the rapid expansion of distributed photovoltaic scale, the insufficient carrying capacity of the distribution network, the prominent contradictions, and the participation of distributed photovoltaic in the power market have been put on the agenda, related problems need to be solved by the joint efforts of all parties.
Before allocating new energy projects, forcibly implementing industrial projects is not conducive to the optimal allocation of industrial resources and competition neutrality.
For the local government, it is understandable to attract investment through photovoltaic resource indicators, but for the whole country, the scale of production is too fragmented, which is not conducive to the scale effect. The behavior of exchanging the market for investment in some regions has hindered the formation of a unified national photovoltaic market to a certain extent, and may also face the correction of the state at the policy level.
The external environment is complex and severe, and changes in international economic and trade policies pose certain challenges to photovoltaic exports.
At present, the establishment of photovoltaic ** chain in the United States and Europe, from polysilicon to module vertical integration capacity, the cost per GW will exceed 500 million US dollars, which is more than three times higher than the cost of construction in China. Since the end of 2021, investment in the overseas photovoltaic industry has accelerated, and major overseas photovoltaic markets such as the United States, the European Union, and India have actively deployed manufacturing localization policies, increased subsidies and support for domestic industries, and accelerated the restructuring of the global photovoltaic industry pattern. According to the IEA**, by 2027, after the increase of PV production capacity in Europe, India and other places, China's share of global PV capacity may drop by 5%, and the proportion of production may fall by 15%. At the same time, the risk of traditional remedial measures and tariff barriers still exists, and new barriers to human rights and green in Europe and the United States are aggravating, and the security risk of the chain is increasing, posing a certain challenge to the global competition of China's photovoltaic industry.
The dual carbon policy promotes the transformation of the energy structure and accelerates the development of the photovoltaic industry
According to the global energy development trend, China actively promotes the transformation of energy structure. In October 2021, the Communist Party of China issued the "Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality", which clearly incorporated "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" into the overall economic and social development, guided by the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, and with green and low-carbon energy development as the key, and accelerated the formation of an industrial structure, production mode, lifestyle, and spatial pattern that conserves resources and protects the environmentIt is also proposed that by 2025, an economic system will be initially formed to achieve green, low-carbon and circular development, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 20%;In 2030, the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development will achieve remarkable results, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%;By 2060, an economic system with green, low-carbon and circular development and a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system will be fully established, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80%, and the goal of carbon neutrality will be successfully achieved.
Driven by the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", reducing fossil energy consumption, vigorously developing clean energy such as solar energy, and building a new power system with new energy as the main body are of great significance for accelerating the transformation of energy structure and realizing a green economy, and also create a good environment for the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry.
The industrialization of n-type batteries has been accelerated, and the technology has been continuously upgraded
Although the major players in the current PV industry chain have gradually carried out the large-scale implementation of N-type high-efficiency cells, on the whole, N-type cells are still in the early stage of large-scale construction, and compared with PERC cells, there is still huge room for development. According to the "Roadmap for the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry (2022-2023)" released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the market share of China's n-type cells in 2022 will only be 91%。At present, the main technical routes of N-type batteries include TOPCon, HJT, back-contact batteries (including ABC), etc., and each technical route has its own advantages in terms of performance characteristics: for example, TOPCon batteries have higher production line compatibility with traditional P-type batteries, while ABC batteries with non-silver technology have obvious advantages in terms of conversion efficiency and cost reduction.
At present, each technical route occupies a certain market share, and there is no single technical route to occupy the absolute market space, so the development of various technical routes of n-type batteries is still in the stage of full competition in the market, and it is expected that a variety of n-type technical routes will coexist in the future. The acceleration of the industrialization of n-type batteries is conducive to promoting the continuous upgrading of technology. With the advancement of technology, the cost and ** of n-type batteries may further decrease, and its market share is expected to increase significantly.
The goal of grid parity has been gradually realized, and the industry is moving towards a market-driven development model
In recent years, China has successively issued various policy guidelines for photovoltaic power generation "grid parity", clearly carried out the construction of grid parity projects and low-price grid pilot projects, the national photovoltaic subsidy policy has gradually declined, and the photovoltaic industry has ushered in the era of parity. The "grid parity" policy promotes the overall development of the photovoltaic industry in the direction of reducing costs and increasing efficiency.
In the future, with the continuous improvement of the conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic industry chain and the continuous improvement of process technology, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is expected to be further reduced, and the development of the industry will gradually change from a policy-driven, planned and market-driven multi-driven development model to a market-driven development model, and the development of photovoltaic enterprises will also rely more on their own core competitiveness such as advanced technology, cost control capabilities, customer stickiness, and talent reserves.
Promote the integration of layout and continuously improve industrial concentration
Since 2020, the balance of supply and demand of raw materials in the photovoltaic industry chain has experienced a large increase, resulting in large fluctuations in the industrial chain, and the profit level of some enterprises with a single main business has been seriously affected. In order to stabilize the first-class chain structure, enhance the overall anti-risk ability of the enterprise, and cultivate new profit growth points, the main participants in the industrial chain have accelerated the integration of the construction process in recent years.
In addition, the integrated layout will further squeeze the living space of small and medium-sized participants in the market while reducing the comprehensive cost of the industrial chain and eliminating backward production capacity. New orders will accelerate the concentration of leading enterprises, further accelerate the improvement of industrial concentration, and the subsequent market pattern will become more mature and stable.
With the growing global demand for clean energy, the long-term outlook for the PV industry remains positive. By actively responding to the challenges, China's PV industry is expected to continue to play an important role in the global energy transition and make an important contribution to building a greener and more sustainable future.