This year's winter was particularly cold, and the temperature in Beijing and Tianjin was even lower than in Moscow, which was beyond my expectations.
The so-called "tears splashed when feeling", the trembling of the body meets the market full of cold, which is easy to make the majority of secondary dogs and shareholders freeze and make the ice worse.
I came to Shanghai to communicate with friends in the industry, and there were many people who envied the U.S. stock market and invested in the U.S. stock market.
Hell jokes, I found out
In the past, the "weakness and compromise of the petty bourgeoisie" written in history textbooks and political textbooks were really vividly reflected in our investors.
The elite, represented by intellectuals, has always been very complicated.
On the one hand, intellectuals have a sense of compassion for the heavens and the people, and they will discuss the historical inertia of the thousand-year-old country from the 5,000-year-old Chinese culture, and will make bitter satire and criticism of the ignorance and unfairness of the common people.
But on the other hand, you ask what exactly?In fact, I can't say a feasible solution, you and I are keyboard warriors.
So back in the last century, when the best talents and beauties in the same period or the disadvantages of the times, or the wind and snow, or the sarcasm of the foolish people at the bottom, the teacher wrote the "Hunan Agricultural ** Investigation Report", in his eyes, there is not much prejudice, but what he thinks about is how to unite the peasant brothers and how to create a better society.
Life in the world, unsatisfactory things out of ten**. Of course, it's okay to complain, and there is value in criticizing nature, but what is more important is "how to do it".
I clearly remember that in 2018, when the photovoltaic industry was greatly affected by the 531 New Deal, I read an academic article, and the industrial perspective at that time was quite pessimistic, and I felt that "the sunrise industry has become a sunset industry", which is a pity.
But what happened later, we also know that the photovoltaic industry ushered in a big explosion in 2019-2021, as a comparative advantage of Made in China.
This is how history comes out step by step, not out of sorrow.
Standing in 2018, several economists and financial elites "successfully predicted" the great development of photovoltaic and new energy two years later
A few years later, business students and ordinary people will be accustomed to the news that Chinese cars are sold all over the world, but I think that 10 years ago, domestic cars could only make a living from low prices, and the days when joint venture cars dominated the mainstream are still fresh in everyone's memory.
At that time, who would have thought that BYD would surpass Tesla to become the world's largest new energy car brand with sales of 1.86 million units in 2022?
Before being pessimistic, let's still ask ourselves, did we export more cars to China than Japan and Germany ten years ago?
When the industrial policy subsidizes new energy and new energy stays in the conceptual stage, will it be judged that new energy will succeed?
*Has the scale of our manufacturing industry surpassed that of Europe and the United States?
Since you can't do it, you can guess the next ten years now
That's how history develops – spiraling upwards and moving forward in waves.
Throughout the ages, "spreading anxiety" has its own market, and "negative emotions" have its own traffic.
However, as a reflection of expectations, it has long been price-in, especially since our market often over-reflects.
Reform and opening up has never been smooth sailing.
In 1985, not long after the curtain of the reopening opened, the iconic "Beijing Jeep Turmoil" occurred.
At that time, BAIC and American Automotive Corporation (AMC) planned to create a Sino-foreign joint venture to "exchange market for technology", but in November, BAIC was dissatisfied with AMC because it could not pay foreign exchange to clear the 1,008 sets of auto parts that AMC put on the dock.
In February 1986, AMC Chairman Jose Dedeurwaerder published an article in the American magazine ** questioning our joint venture model.
This argument was very popular at the time, and it was criticized by a large number of mainstream *** and comments in the United States, which made the entire West begin to question our change.
Looking in the rearview mirror, of course, I just want to make a big news.
Our reform and opening up has not stopped, but similar arguments will always appear from time to time, especially when the performance is not good.
When we are about to be frightened by all kinds of foreign media essays, don't forget the words of the instructor, "Imperialism is a paper tiger, it looks terrifying, it is confusing, but it is nothing to be afraid of." ”
The stock price is annoying to everyone, and it can lie flat, but the institution must not lie flat, otherwise how can it reflect the degree of professionalism?
Now it should be more time for good ** to appear good ** and more investment opportunities, and now if you don't do good research, do you want to break eggs?
On December 18, NIO issued an additional US$2.2 billion to CYVN, an external shareholder from Saudi Arabia, and CYVN also surpassed Li Bin and Tencent to become the largest shareholder.
This reminds me of the time when the Internet was in its infancy, and Alibaba had no way to raise funds in China, and finally achieved mutual success with SoftBankTencent was also unable to raise money, resulting in the equity falling into the hands of the South African newspaper group.
If NIO reduces costs and increases efficiency after obtaining capital support, it expands its market share, and as a result, after the company grows bigger, how can the major shareholder be foreign capital?
Now Wanhua, TCL Zhonghuan, Bank of China, Xingyu Shares, Hongfa Shares, Hualan Biology and other companies can see the presence of Middle East capital, but what is the attitude of domestic capital towards these companies?
There are always some people in the institution, who are more optimistic than Xiaosan when they are optimistic, and can calculate the valuation of CATL until 2060;When pessimistic, he is more pessimistic than Xiaosan, always thinking about running away.
In fact, when every new force rises, it will always be suppressed by the old pattern, which will exist between countries, enterprises and enterprises, and between workers and workers.
Britain became the world's first industrial country in the second half of the 18th century with the development of the textile machine and cotton textile industry, and then in the 19th century, the United States, as a latecomer to the Industrial Revolution, was accused by Britain of stealing technology and was blocked by technology exports, while American engineers and technical recognition began to work hard to improve looms.
The independent innovation of every country has come step by step in this way.
During this time, everyone's life is really not smooth, and some friends are very sad, how can they encounter "no major changes in a century" after just a few years of work, and they feel the bad luck.
When it comes to "a hundred years", we always have to think of China a hundred years ago, the collapse of the feudal system for a thousand years, followed by the warlord melee - the Zhiwan War, the Zhifeng War, the Northern Expedition War, the Jiang-Gui War, the Jiang-Feng War, etc., and within a few days, the devils invaded again, defeated the Japanese, and encountered civil war + super inflation.
Finally, New China was established, and the Korean War broke out again in 1950, allowing that generation to catch up.
is like what Wu Jing said in the movie "Changjin Lake": "Let's let our generation fight this battle." ”
If you want to talk about changes, that generation is a serious "no great change in a thousand years", compared with the hardships they have endured and the sins they have suffered, we are really nothing.
Even if we were born in the United States in the 50s and 60s, belonging to Buffett's ** era, what happened?
McCarthyism is rampant, the Ku Klux Klan is strong, the Cuban Missile Crisis is one step away from full-scale nuclear war, and when the American youth are mired in the quagmire of the Vietnam War, they are collectively lying on the back of their minds, the assassination of Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr., the turmoil, and the rise of black civil rights.
The world has never been as peaceful as we imagined.
Among the four volumes of "Mao Xuan", I personally like the second one, which mainly includes the articles written by the teachers during the Anti-Japanese War, and the extremely complex environment can better reflect the wisdom of the teachers.
In 1938, the faculty wrote "On Protracted War", which refuted both the theory of quick victory and the doctrine of capitulation.
Today, from our international diplomacy policy to the ups and downs, the same may be true.
It should be difficult to quickly break through the stuck neck and usher in a big bull market immediately;But thinking that this is the end of it, it is not enough to scare yourself to death, the key is to be prepared for a protracted war.
It will only be 30 years since the A-share market is full, and it will be 25 years for the public offering**, and we are still very young and have more possibilities.
The experience accumulated in the past in A-shares will definitely be broken one after another in the future, and more rapid drawdowns, longer adjustments, faster rotations, and more extreme ** are all possible.
On the bright side, unknowability is the charm of life.
When this article began to be written in the morning, Big A was habitually "diving", and after writing it, he looked at A shares and was hard for a day.
On the basis of last night's sharp drop in U.S. stocks, this red line is rare and morale-boosting, although I don't know how sustainable it is, but it is the so-called-
Pessimists are always right, but optimists can make money.