The United States has come up with a bold plan called Operation Prosperity Guardian, which aims to form an international coalition of 20 countries to jointly secure the Red Sea route. However, this initiative has not received the wide-ranging support that was expected. As of the 25th, Operation "Prosperity Guardian" has not yet been launched. European countries such as Spain, Italy and France have rejected the leadership of the United States, saying that they are unwilling to participate in escort operations in the Red Sea. Italy stressed that their patrols in the Red Sea were made entirely on the basis of national interests and the request of the shipowners, and were not in response to the call of the United States. France said it would send ** to escort the mission, but would not accept the leadership of the United States. Spain made it clear that they would only participate in missions coordinated by NATO or the European Union, and would not accept the leadership of the United States. Australia has also made it clear that it refuses to participate in the Red Sea escort, only promising to send some additional military personnel, but will not send **.
Although the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark and other countries said they had committed a small number of personnel to the operation, it was more symbolic, and fewer than 10 people were sent to augment the headquarters of the Joint Maritime Force. Some countries have even asked for anonymous participation to avoid public appearances. This reaction underscored the distrust and misgivings of the U.S. proposal, leading to an impasse in the Prosperity Guardian operation. Analyzing the reasons for this, it can be attributed to the controversy over international moral and political positions, especially the handling of the Gaza and other issues by the United States and its ally Israel, which has aroused global resentment, including Western countries. This moral controversy has a direct impact on the credibility of the United States in calling for international military cooperation. For European countries, the security of the Red Sea route, while important, does not constitute a direct impact compared to their core interests. European countries tend to keep their distance without direct interests and not to get involved lightly in actions that could pose political and military risks. At the same time, the Red Sea escort faced a number of technical problems.
The Houthis reportedly use low-cost drones to carry out attacks, which cost only a few thousand dollars but pose a threat to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of merchant ships. Although these drones** are not high, they are unusually expensive to intercept, leaving the navies of the United States and its allies in a difficult position. In order to defend against these threats, it is necessary to send large ** sorties equipped with expensive missile systems, and this unequal military investment has led to high escort costs. Even if they switch to small patrol boats, although nimble and lightweight, they lack the necessary air defense capabilities and can hardly respond to air threats and effectively protect numerous merchant ships from attack. Therefore, such a scheme also does not solve the underlying problem. In contrast, it is more feasible to assemble merchant ships to form a large fleet and have a small number of ** escorts. By taking this approach, you can improve the cost-effectiveness of escorts and take advantage of economies of scale to provide more protection at a lower cost.
During World War II, Germany was frequently attacked by German submarines in the North Atlantic, and the probability of being attacked was greatly reduced, and it did not have much impact on the transshipment of goods to Europe. However, there are also significant drawbacks to this approach, such as less efficient fleet operations and increased time consumption, leading to higher costs and reduced competitiveness. Strict schedule constraints and potential delays also make this option less advantageous than detouring the Cape of Good Hope, so shipping companies prefer to detour the Cape of Good Hope. Unlike the escort in the Gulf of Aden, the Somali pirates are only equipped with small speedboats and light **, and the threat is not great, and the ** ships mainly carry out deterrent operations. On the other hand, the escort in the Gulf of Aden is also a great opportunity for the navies of various countries to show their strength, improve their actual combat level and strengthen their cooperation with foreign affairs, and there is no moral problem, so most countries are willing to participate, and China has sent 45 batches of ** to participate in the escort in the Gulf of Aden.
Another thorny issue is that, in addition to drones, the Houthis have also publicly displayed mines, remotely controlled suicide drones, and a variety of anti-ship missiles, all of which pose a serious challenge to escort operations. To effectively address this diverse threat, the international community will need to devote resources on a much larger scale. Therefore, even if the escort alliance is finally formed, it will not be able to solve the problem at the root. Unless the United States takes action to eliminate the Houthis in person, it will fall into Iran's trap.