Ma Guangyuan's method of solving the problems of China's property market again may be correct.
Article Lao Mo.
There is no doubt that there are many ways to solve the problems of China's real estate market, and anyone inside and outside the industry will have a few words. But the question is, how many really work?To be honest, I'm afraid 90% of them don't have any effect at all.
But on December 13, these two views of economist Ma Guangyuan immediately caught my attention:
1. Five years ago, proposed"Two 18"The concept that the peak of China's property market is the annual sales of 1.8 billion square meters of residential buildings, with sales of 18 billion;
2) From the first saleable homes in 1998 until 2000, two-thirds of our homes were essentially dilapidated.
This is completely understandable, in the future the country will definitely not need so many houses, what needs to be done is to adjust the structure, many houses are too old. In this regard, he also pointed out the solution, please pay attention to this sentence"If two-thirds of the houses are taken away, there will be a shortage of houses again"。
Theoretically, this is certainly true. But the problem is that if you want to apply it concretely, I'm afraid it's difficult. Specifically, have you ever thought about these two questions?
Do we really have that much money to slowly destroy so many houses?
Obviously, relocation means demolition, and once you talk about demolition, you have to talk about money. In fact, even with cash compensation, there are still many people who are reluctant to demolish, for the simple reason that the demolition money simply cannot buy a house on the spot.
Even if you can, you have to take out a loan. Think about it from another perspective: if you live in a high-end complex and suddenly one day you want to move to a high-rise complex, even if the area is only 150 square meters, would you like to?
There are people who are willing, but there are also people who are unwilling. This is only one of the problems, and only if the local town has the money to demolish it. The most difficult situation is that there is no money for demolition, but it is not impossible to find a solution, whether it is to buy a house with a guarantee or not to demolish it at all.
However, this did not solve the problem. Data show that before 2000 alone, there were 25.7 billion housing estates. To be honest, the demolition of more than 200 million communities, even if it is distributed to various provinces and cities, I am afraid that it will not be completed in a few decades.
In the case of second-tier cities, as long as it is an old house in the urban area, the minimum demolition standard is 150,000-20,000 square meters, if calculated in this way, it will take at least nearly 1 million to demolish a suite, which is basically the minimum standard.
Even so, it is still difficult to afford the cost of demolition, let alone hundreds of millions of homes, how much will it cost.
After the demolition of this part of the house, will the house price still be **?
This goes back to the previous topic: what was the main reason for real estate *** in the past?No one can deny one thing: fast trading in the short term.
To be honest, urbanization has led to a large number of rural families moving to the city, coupled with a strong atmosphere of speculative investment, regardless of whether there is demand or not, everyone regards buying a house as an obligation, and it is no wonder that housing prices do not rise.
However, starting in 2020, we found that it seems that many people are not buying houses anymore, and the real estate market is getting colder. If you think about it, in addition to the fact that our demand for houses is not so urgent, the difficulty of housing prices is also one of the main reasons.
Because when we buy a house, we all hope to make money, but one day, when they find out that not only do they not make money, but they have to pay out of their pockets every month, or even become a burden, who will buy a house?I, no.
But let's be honest, if we can really tear down the 2With 5.7 billion houses, it seems that house prices are going to rise again. Because this is equivalent to going back to the era when most people needed to buy a house, how could it not go up?
But don't worry, it's just a theory, after all, why buy a house if it hasn't been demolished yet
IMO: Theoretically, I agree with Ma Guangyuan"Demolition of the house"Theory, let's talk about this method first. The question is whether and how it can be implemented.
As you also pointed out, the average annual economic growth rate for 200 years, starting in 1821, was only 33%, so we have to guard against risks, and the economy couldn't be worse.
Honestly, it's a thin line.
Even if you have the money to demolish and are willing to demolish and relocate, you really want to buy a house, if there is still a problem of rotten sides in the new house, I am afraid that people will still dare not buy a house. This is still equivalent to progress"Dead end"。
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the state has recently relaxed restrictions on private enterprise financing, and recently emphasized that debt defaults are not the same as thunderstorms. Fundamentally, the state still wants to increase our confidence in the real estate market.
What are your thoughts on this?
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