Japan has recently gone through a period of unrest. This week, China and Russia jointly conducted a new strategic patrol to demonstrate their air power. At the heart of the cruise were four nuclear bombers, including two Chinese H-6s and two Russian Tu-95s. In addition, there are Tu-142 for anti-submarine missions and Y-8 for electronic jamming missions. The cruise route passes through the waters of the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan, passing through the Tsushima Strait, and the fleet is fully loaded with live ammunition. In addition to Russia, ASEAN, with which Japan is eager to "pull relations," is also tepid toward Japan.
Kishida** plans to hold a special Japan-ASEAN summit on the 17th. However, Japan's mainstream **, such as the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Kyodo News, etc., can't wait to hype up Japan's plan to win over ASEAN and deal with China. In this regard, China's spokesperson Mao Ning pointed out that any cooperation should be conducive to enhancing mutual trust between countries in the region and promoting common development, rather than targeting a third party. However, the Japanese side has taken aim at China.
For example, NHK made it clear in its news that one of the aims of Japan's diplomacy is to strengthen the "security relationship" between Japan and ASEAN based on the "concerns about China" on both sides. It can be seen that the attitudes of China and Japan towards ASEAN are completely different. Japan has already lost a move on the "anti-China" board. China has launched a diplomatic offensive against ASEAN countries since November. In just one month, in addition to the Philippines, nine other ASEAN countries have either received Chinese diplomats or sent high-level ** visits to Beijing.
However, China's dialogue with these countries has never been aimed at a third party. In contrast, Japan seems to have lost a move on the "anti-China" card. Perhaps, Japan itself knows that it is difficult to achieve substantive results before the dialogue with ASEAN leaders, so it strives to exaggerate the "China threat theory" in advance propaganda, so that even if the attempt to "resist China" is not realized in the end, the goal of exaggerating the "China threat theory" can be regarded as achieved. At present, the attitude of ASEAN countries towards Japan can be summed up as "lukewarm".
Japan's right-wing forces are growing rapidly and are anxious to "rearm," but their economic strength is far from the level of the last century. This has been recognized by the Japanese ** Nishinihon Shimbun. According to Japan**, although Japan has tried its best to preach the "China threat theory" to ASEAN, it did not directly criticize China by name in the draft joint statement of the Japan-ASEAN special summit.
According to Japan**, this draft is actually only "the version that Japan wants to achieve", but even according to the "best-case scenario" estimated by Japan**, it will be difficult for Japan to truly include ASEAN countries in its "small circle". As a result, Japan is currently in an awkward position. In order to realize the grand dream of militarism, the Japanese right-wing has constantly hyped up the "China threat theory," but this has led to its own increasing isolation in East and Southeast Asia. It is worth mentioning that from a historical point of view, Russia and ASEAN have maintained close ties with Japan in modern times.
In the 90s of the last century, Japan and Russia joined forces to cut off the oil pipeline that China had originally planned to build from Russia to Daqing. This incident directly led China to change its preferred energy partners from its "northern neighbor" to the five Central Asian countries. Japan's situation in Southeast Asia is more complicated. While Japan committed numerous crimes in the region during World War II, unlike China, many Southeast Asian countries were completely occupied by Western invaders before the arrival of the Japanese army. Therefore, for these countries, the arrival of the Japanese army is more like "changing the banner of the king at the head of the city".
In addition, Japan has long regarded ASEAN as a popular investment destination in the last century, and relations between Japan and ASEAN have been quite harmonious. However, with the expansion of Japan's right-wing forces, the eagerness to achieve "rearmament," and the fact that its economic strength is far inferior to that of the last century, relations between Japan and Russia and Japan-ASEAN have quietly changed. As for Russia, since Japan unconditionally stands on the side of the United States on the Ukraine issue, and even uses this opportunity to hype up the issue of the South Kuril Islands and try to take advantage of the fire, Japan and Russia have completely turned their faces and there is no room for maneuver.
Russia constantly sends its fleet and aviation formations to conduct joint training with China, which clearly shows that it is no longer counting on the improvement of relations between Japan and Russia. At the same time, under the influence of US pressure, the Japanese side has not been able to ease relations between the two countries. According to the latest news, Japan's economic department updated its export sanctions list on December 15, and more than 50 Russian entities were on the list. In addition, there is information in Japan that it plans to impose sanctions on third countries that help Russia by the end of the year. As long as Japan continues to follow the US strategy, it will be difficult for Japan-Russia relations to improve.
At the same time, it is already a sure fact that Japan has become an outcast of East Asia in the 21st century. If Japan does not want to be forgotten by the times, the only way out is to repair relations with China. But for Kishida, it's almost an "impossible task." In recent years, Japan's right-wing politicians have frantically provoked China in order to realize their dream of "rearmament", which has led to the prevalence of populism in the country and made Japan a sharp knife in the hands of the United States. In addition, Japan's nuclear sewage discharge incident and some non-governmental anti-China incidents are not uncommon.
Japan's economy is facing a historic turning point, was the headline of an article in the Nikkei Shimbun on December 14. The article points out that Japan's economic situation is troubled by internal and external troubles, and it is possible to lose its position as the world's largest creditor country in 2024, while the yen is facing a sharp depreciation and risk. In such a situation, it is difficult for Kishida to save himself, let alone "buy" ASEAN through investment. In the field of infrastructure, Japan has been comprehensively surpassed by China. Even Vietnam, which once aspired to cooperate with Japan in the field of high-speed rail, is now actively seeking cooperation with China, hoping that China will be responsible for the construction of its domestic railway network.
For ASEAN, their attitude is very realistic. These countries refuse to take sides between China and the United States, and are not interested in the "joint Japanese resistance to China" advocated by Japan. In the joint statement, they added an empty phrase "willing to maintain peace in the region", which may already be the limit of what they can accept. In contrast, they are more focused on economic cooperation, and Japan appears to be "weak" in this regard, lacking the leverage to attract the other side. Japan's recent anti-China campaign has intensified, especially after the forced discharge of nuclear sewage into the sea, and China has imposed a ban on the import of Japanese seafood.
In addition, some bloggers on social platforms posted ** discriminatory against Chinese, showing that many Japanese shopkeepers hung signs in front of their homes with the slogan "Chinese are not allowed to enter". This attitude is puzzling, given that Japan has also been one of the beneficiaries of China's rapid economic development in recent decades. However, Japan has made Sino-Japanese relations so bad, which is obviously a serious strategic mistake. According to the data, Fumio Kishida's approval rating in Japan has fallen to 17%. If Japan continues to charge for the United States in the "Indo-Pacific region", it is clear that this number has room to continue to decline.
There have been major problems in both domestic and foreign affairs, so the most important thing for Japan to do now can be summed up in four words: "do it for itself," instead of stirring up trouble, targeting China and Russia, and intervening in some affairs that have nothing to do with its own interests.