Project Sword
According to reference sources, in recent days, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, responded to the South Korean side's previous accusations about North Korea's artillery training near the disputed maritime border. Kim Yo-jong's attitude was extremely strong, and she satirized the South Korean side for speculating that North Korea had launched an artillery provocation, because North Korea did not conduct artillery training at all on the 6th, but only conducted a simulation**. The South Korean army mistakenly judged the ** sound as the sound of artillery, and also carried out emergency evasion.
Of course, ridiculing South Korea was not Kim Yo-jong's purpose, and she responded with a very direct and tough warning to South Korea. Kim Yo-jong said that if the enemy provokes, the North Korean army will inflict a "baptism of fire." It can be seen that the North Korean side is already extremely angry. The border between the two Koreas is now in a tense situation, giving people the illusion that a major war is about to break out.
Although the two Koreas are of the same race, they are like a pair of enemies who have a common hatred and vow to put each other to death. Recently, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has publicly stated that the relationship between the two Koreas is no longer a homogeneous relationship, but a complete hostility.
In addition to joining the United States in constantly condemning the North Korean side for creating a tense atmosphere and threatening South Korea, the South Korean side also publicly stated that there is no buffer zone between the two Koreas. Based on this atmosphere, the peninsula was cloudy for a while.
In fact, the war of scolding between the two Koreas has always existed, but this time, it is very different. The two sides are not just talking harsh words, but even to the point where there is no way out. So, what is the reason for this time?
This time, as in the past, North Korea was forced to retaliate. South Korea has hyped up North Korea's artillery drills near the disputed maritime border, but has deliberately ignored a week's worth of U.S.-South Korean military exercises in Pocheon, near the border between South Korea and North Korea. During this period, the U.S. and South Korean forces conducted frequent live-fire training.
Judging from the current situation, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has indeed deteriorated to a very serious point, and although the United States and South Korea have often tested the bottom line of the North Korean side, this time, the North Koreans seem to have really become angry.
So, why do South Koreans repeatedly test North Korea?Will conflicts break out on the peninsula in the short term?
First of all, Yoon Suk-yeol** has gradually escalated his temptation to North Korea, mainly because it is good for them to do so. Since Yoon Suk-yeol came to power, his main focus has been diplomacy, and at best he has been lackluster in governing the country and dealing with people's livelihood issues.
Of course, the reason why Yoon Suk-yeol has no political achievements on these issues is simple, because he cannot change the status quo of South Korea's economy. First, South Korea's economy is currently in a state of deterioration, and many important development decisions require the consent of the United States. China is both South Korea's largest market and the largest businessman, but the United States has demanded that South Korea decouple from China. Second, South Korea's deficit with China is becoming more and more obvious, and China's new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and shipbuilding industries are gradually replacing the South Korean market. For these important issues related to the lives of the South Korean people, Yoon Suk-yeol** could not come up with any effective methods, so he could only blindly emphasize strengthening cooperation with the United States and Japan.
However, Yoon Suk-yeol's approach to improving relations between Japan and South Korea as a political achievement has backfired, and his near-"flattery" attitude has aroused strong opposition from the domestic public and opposition parties. The recent assassination of Lee Jae-myung, the leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, has further exacerbated the crisis in Yoon Suk-yeol's administration.
In the face of overwhelming accusations and criticisms at home, Yoon Suk-yeol has no effective solution, and he can only follow the example of the West to try to transfer domestic contradictions. Therefore, in the past period, Yoon Suk-yeol and his subordinates have been constantly harsh against North Korea, constantly attracting the United States to conduct military exercises, and even putting pressure on North Korea with nuclear deterrence.
But Yoon Suk-yeol** ignored that the high-pressure sanctions policies adopted by the United States, South Korea and other countries against North Korea, as well as military deterrence measures such as bilateral and multilateral exercises, have long accumulated anger in North Korea. Therefore, we can see that in the face of escalating provocations by the United States and South Korea and other countries, the rhetoric of the DPRK's top leaders has begun to break through the previous limits. And operationally, live-fire training on the border is also a countermeasure to South Korea's escalation, because Seoul is within their range.
It is undeniable that now all parties have sensed the danger of the situation on the peninsula, and the pressure on Yoon Suk-yeol has decreased. However, this kind of tightrope walking method is very dangerous after all, and a little carelessness may cause the gun to misfire.
As for whether a conflict will break out between South Korea and North Korea in the short term, at present, there is a high probability that it will not. Although the situation near the 38th parallel is tense, in the final analysis, the DPRK does not want to fight, the ROK does not dare to fight, and China, the United States and Russia do not want to fight. Even a misfire may not lead to a large-scale conflict, but if the risk persists, it will be difficult to avoid further deterioration of the situation. Therefore, if we want to resolve the Korean Peninsula issue, dialogue and consultation are still the only shortcut.