In 2023, we have experienced the full prosperity of A-share magicist value investment and non-A-assets, and many A-share assets have already reached the hitting area in the past year, but the overall risk of A-shares is too high, and I have even forgotten why I want to **, the insensitive state of low desire is devastating for the idea of capital entry, but fortunately, at the New Year's Eve, the annual return rate is refreshed and zeroed, so you might as well return your emotions to zero, and then think about it from beginning to end.
The most difficult point in 2023 is that the interest rate hike cycle of the June meeting is refueled in the air (the banking crisis and the debt ceiling issue are held high and the debt ceiling issue is held high, and economic growth has given the courage to make monetary decisions), resulting in a violent reversal of assets and market expectationsIt wasn't until the November meeting that market expectations were re-contained until the end of the rate hike cycle, and then assets** let themselves go like wild buffalo(See if the macro is effective, at least in the overseas capital market, it is extremely effective).
Luckily,The Fed's monetary policy judgment in 2024 will be significantly simpler than in 2023Although the difficulty in the details lies in the grasp of the path of interest rates (when to cut interest rates & how many times to cut interest rates), the word rate cuts must be engraved in the direction of monetary policy in 2024, which is a simple question (the December meeting press conference faced the side-knocking side attack on the assumption of interest rate cuts, Powell said that the conditions for interest rate cuts do not need to be premised on economic weakening, and normal economic growth may not require such high interest rates).
The overseas market as a whole is in line with the response to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with some individual exceptions such as the NASDAQ benefiting from the AI technology wave in the first half of the year, and the Japanese stock market opened the daily special valuation in the first half of the year with the blessing of Warren Buffett, but including the main rising wave of the annual line of stock printing, digital currency and other risk assetsAll non-A assets reflected liquidity expectations at the inflection point of macro interest rates after the November meeting
ps: What's more interesting is Milley's social experiment in Argentina, and Erdogan, Turkey, together with Erdogan, broke the wall of traditional economic theory, the Argentine stock index will rise by 360% in 2023, even if you count the 78% depreciation of the peso. Friends of A-shares, please redefine the dire situation, who is the test subject?
The reason for showing the changes in global assets** since the November meetingThe point is that the expected ** reaction to the inflection point of interest rates has been running wildly on the road, and although the overseas macro direction in 2024 is a simple question, the relative returns have been eaten in half by 2023.
Draft script: The Federal Reserve's March meeting will set the general outline of the interest rate path for the whole year, and the June meeting in the middle of the year will at least move, that is, the overseas ** market will remain sweet in the first half of 2024, but the range will be milder than at the end of 23, and you must get used to being swiped by the record highs of various stock indexes. In the second half of 2024, the risk factors will return to dominance, on the one hand, the donkey elephant will inevitably mess around in 2024, and on the other hand, after the interest rate cut boots land for the first time, the expected sentiment will fade, the era of high interest rates is still long, and the market will be painful and happy in the slow pace of interest rate cuts.
Commodities have been in a long-cycle boom since 2020, the inflection point of interest rates provides basic support for dollar-priced commodities**, and supply and demand have their own characteristics:
Geopolitical conflict factors have frequently caused short- and medium-term disturbances, OPEC+ joint production cuts have lasted for a record long time since the epidemic, and the sharp increase in production in the United States has filled the gap in production cuts in traditional oil producing countriesAfter the completion of the OPEC+ voluntary production reduction operation in the first quarter of 2024, the most volatile risk point comes from the impact of the withdrawal of the joint production reduction strategy。At that time, China's PPI and CPI will also be greatly affected, and it will be more difficult for the ** index to rise(Small day: deflation will lose a lot).
Since the advent of the BTC consensus in 2020, the asset sensitivity of ** has been dulled a lot, but the basic principle has not changed, and it has the attributes of both commodity prosperity and safe-haven assets, pushing *** to a record highOn the road to deglobalization, the blessing of the traditional wealth consensus is more needed, and central banks continue to hoard
Copper:Maintain the conclusions of the previous two years of investment outlook(The specific data display can be turned to the previous article), the total supply and demand of copper remain relatively balanced, the marginal change in the demand for new energy supply, and the lack of capital expenditure leads to the lack of follow-up of supply increment, and the peak of increment in 2023 has passed, and the subsequent supply growth rate has slowed downSupport** remains at current all-time highs and follows small fluctuations in financial conditions
Lithium: There's too much to talk about in energy metals, and then let's open a separate analysis of the outlook for global lithium resources in 2024 and beyond.
Iron Ore:In previous years, I didn't track the black series much, but the current time point is not negligibleBecause the market strategy seems to be strongly linked to China's economic recovery expectations (overseas strategy mainly refers to real estate)., or even a predictive peg, which has been rising before the recovery, has turned on the mode of even refreshing high.
The overseas part is written here, call back the previous topic, return to the Chinese market, and see if the macro is effective?This has to mention the law of the avenue contained in the word "steady".。To tell the truth, let's take the simplest chestnut: rewind time to ten years agoGuess what the monetary policy rhetoric was during the 2011 interest rate hike cycle?
In 2011, the stabilization of the overall price level was placed in a more prominent position in financial macroeconomic regulation and controlImplement a prudent monetary policyWe will further strengthen macro-prudential management and strive to improve the pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness of policies. ——From the 2011 work conference of the People's Bank of China.
Sometimes I wonder why I should allocate A-share assets in the face of such a boom in non-A-share assets in 2023In fact, it has always been at the macro levelThe original intention is that the market is a barometer of liquidity, and there is still a toolbox for China's low interest rate space(In addition, from the company level, A-shares also have the world's leading new energy companies). This retro version of the RRR cut and interest rate reduction was abandoned after the market-oriented reform of interest rates (LPR, various powders, and commercial banks self-adjusted deposit rates), but this is the original intention, and the basic principle has not changed.
China's monetary policy, the deposit and loan interest rates are separated, and the various powders are separated, with a range of 10bp each time, although the toolbox is super doubled, and the genius actuary has just the right amount of drip irrigation,But the expected reversal and guidance effect is obvious
It is very regrettable that the macro policy in 2024 has been set in the December meeting, and the prudent monetary policy and active fiscal policy (see the relevant interpretation of the author's December meeting to guide the economy for details), it can be determined thatThe "easing" monetary policy does not have any expectations for the A** market, but the meaning of "prudent" has the potential to change
It should be noted thatChina's economic data in 2024 will have a major optimization, and the year-on-year data affected by the epidemic will all return to positive after the washing of time, which means that to achieve the same percentage target, the tendency to add water will be stronger than before(It is necessary to track the change in the tone of the meeting quarter by quarter, after all, a 360° sharp turn has not happened, and there is a possibility of an inflection point similar to the November meeting of the Federal Reserve in 2023). Another factor that can support the operation of the low-interest rate toolbox is thatThe Federal Reserve has entered the stage of interest rate cuts, which will give the soft sister currency exchange rate a chance to breathe, and the depreciation pressure is still there, but it is much smaller
In addition, the first specific arrangement in the December meeting replaced last year's "expansion of domestic demand" with "scientific and technological innovation leading the construction of industrial system", and the matching guiding idea is that "consumption and investment promote each other to form a virtuous circle".Presumably, this means creating new demand through technological innovation to boost consumption (such as a favorite AI), rather than blindly expanding consumption through traditional thinking。How to "correctly" understand "stimulating consumption", I think that the following data chart of the savings rate can explain most of the reasonsThere's still a lot of room to shrink your bank account to the international average
Consumption:The strongest consumption related to traditional domestic demand is the liquor sector, and the direct response to the deployment of the meeting at that time was to be shot in the head, and it should be seen that the consensus of liquor in the capital market is actually only ten years, and it is actually a financial attribute, and both positive feedback and negative feedback have self-reinforcement of the left foot stepping on the right foot. ConsideredThe consumer sector is extremely sensitive to economic recovery expectations, and it is easy to fall into the left and right jumps of high-frequency confirmation and falsification, and the trend of the sector is relatively synchronized with the ** index, and the strategy of boosting consumption by compressing the savings rate is difficult to describe, and the allocation of the consumption sector is actually not as safe as the direct allocation of the index fortunately
Real Estate:Real estate should be "broken" for the most part, and the break in 2024 refers more to the debt, after many essays have been repeatedly tempered, it has been on the road of reversal of difficulties but not prosperity, and it is judged that economic recovery is absolutely inescapableSimilar to consumption, compared with the allocation of the real estate sector, does the direct allocation of the index save a lot of trouble?
Technology:Then look at the new demand created by technology, first of all, the diagram of the new cycle of the stumbling body that everyone will see2023 predicts a full year, and 2024 should be a smooth pro-cyclical yearThis is probably the last boom cycle of domestic substitution before the sand is sold according to the valuation of technology stocks, cherish, industry ETFs are sufficient.
As for AI in the nth technological revolution,First of all, the wall crack reminds us that in 2023, A-shares have finished most of their dreams in one go。From the perspective of eating, companies that do things seriously will enter the stage of burning money by reinventing the wheel after the batch launch of products in 2024ButAt the root of it,Most of the things that AI is doing to reshape the industry can be summed up in four words - reducing costs and increasing efficiencyYes, you're the Ben.
At present, most AI applications do not actually increase demand at some level (see after passing the novelty stage), and the easier direction to change is to eliminate supply, and the industry as a whole will not be better but individual companies will winTherefore, whether AI finds new fun applications or companies that use AI stand out, the investment direction is biased towards individuals rather than industries, and industry allocation only exists in the part that sells shovels, but this part must consider the relative position, and whether it is attractive enough compared to the pits dug in other sectors of A-shares in 2023?
New Energy:Dogs don't buy new energy, foreign capital is drooling, domestic capital advantage in me, two years of adjustment superimposed on the help of A-shares, the average decline of the sector started by 60%.The key word in 2024 is repair** (part of the industry repair, part of the A-share repair).This part is discussed in detail in the article on the Lithium Resource Outlook.
Finance: PreviousNew energy is the last opportunity for A-shares to invest in a large industry boom in the medium term (when it is completed, it has passed).In the future, A-shares can provide equal opportunities for all living beings to win big wins only in the change of monetary policy "such as wide" to achieve flood irrigation, which is also the dream of the bond dog.
Above, the magician value investment of A-shares in 2023, from the unilateral n scientific and technological revolution to the last no dragon fantasy and dream buried in the northern suburbs, is a mirror reproduction of the extreme value of the past, the debt is paid off, and in 2024, the old bottle is filled with new wine.
Saving: In the first half of 2024, non-A assets are still sweet, A-share asset repair is the mainstay, and there is a slight dream of losing the coupon dog that has turned over.
Start planning for my 2024