The factor of uncertainty makes the United StatesEconomyIt is in a very fragile and volatile phase. Recently announcedEconomyThe data shows the United StatesEconomyThe growth rate was revised downward, and the GDP growth rate was revised from 52% to 49%, which further exacerbated the market's interestEconomyRecession fears. Against this background, this article will discuss in detail the impact of this news on the United StatesEconomywithFinancemarket impact and look forward to future trends.
United StatesMinistry of CommerceAccording to the latest data, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the third quarter was revised down to 49%, below market expectations. At the same time, the growth rate of personal consumption expenditure has also increased from the original 36% to 31%。This news means the United StatesEconomyis facing a deeper recession. The market generally believes thatEconomyThe recession is becoming more and more pronouncedFederal ReserveCut interest ratesThe more likely it is, the market is judging by thisFederal Reservewill be in advanceCut interest rates
EconomyThe downward revision of the data has not only triggered, which also had an impact on the US dollar. Due toCut interest ratesThe expected increase in the amount of US dollars in the market will increase, which in turn will weigh on the value of the US dollar and the exchange rate. This explains whyU.S. dollar indexThere was a certain level of **. This series of data corrections pairsFinanceThe market has had a substantial impact.
ExceptEconomyIn addition to the downward revision of the growth rate, othersEconomyIndicators also show the United StatesEconomyThe deepening trend of the recession. For example, the recently announced manufacturing industrypmiAccording to the index, the U.S. manufacturing index was 482. Recession cycle boundaries below 50. This indicates that the performance of the US manufacturing sector is very weak, which is not the same as that of Biden andTrumpThe so-called "America First" strategy is the opposite. The impact of the previous U.S. auto workers' strike on manufacturing data further exacerbated the U.S. fourth quarterEconomyDecline in growth rate.
According toFederal ReserveU.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be 12% all year roundEconomyThe growth rate will fall to 2Around 6%. And next year'sEconomyExpectations are even more bleakFederal ReserveExpected in 2024 in the United StatesEconomyThe growth rate is only 14%, which is 1 lower than this year's growth rate**2%。This is tooFederal ReserveThe official picture is relatively optimistic.
Judging by the data, the United StatesEconomyThe decline seems inevitable, and more evidence supports this assertion. First of all, the United States over the past few yearsEconomyThe good performance is mainly due to:Federal ReserveThe massive easing of the policy printed a large number of dollars. However, this situation of excess savings is close to being depleted by individuals of the American nationSavings rateIt is already below pre-pandemic levels. United StatesEconomyThe maintenance of high growth requires the support of consumption and the service sector, but when American residents do not have enough moneyEconomyIt is impossible to maintain a high growth rate for a long time.
In addition, the high of the United StatesInterest ratesIt is also inhibitionEconomyAn important factor for growth. AmericanInterest ratesThe level is still high, which affects the profitability of enterprises, increases costs, and has a negative impact on areas such as the real estate market. Therefore, the market is widely expectedFederal Reservewill be in advanceCut interest rates
To sum up, the United StatesEconomyThe trend of recession seems inevitable, in March next yearFederal ReserveIn advanceCut interest ratesThe probability is already very high. However, it is worth noting that there are still uncertainties about the future, especially in the context of the global pandemic. In the long term, the United StatesEconomyFurther adjustments and reforms are needed to meet the challenges of the recession.