Kunpeng Project
The latest financial data is out.
Specifically, at the end of November, the M2 balance was 2912 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the M1 balance was 675.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%。
The M2-M1 scissors difference in November was 87%, compared to 8 in the previous month4%, further expanded.
This means that although M2 is already flooding, there is no way to effectively irrigate it, and although the market is short of money, the money is not where it should be.
Why is this happening?
M1 has not yet improved, indicating that it will take time for the economy to pick up, and both residents and enterprises still lack confidence and dare not spend money indiscriminately, and they all want to save money.
But we must know that only by moving money and consumption can we drive economic recovery.
And that's the biggest problem we're facing right now
The money has not flowed from the banks to the physical enterprises that need it, which has led to the fact that although the water has been released, it has not flowed to thousands of households, so it has no practical meaning.
To understand this question, we must first understand how money gets from the bank to every ordinary person.
Some people may wonder, the bank prints the money, and ordinary people contribute their labor in exchange for payment, don't they get the money?
Of course, it is not that simple, in the era of credit money, the way for the central bank to release money is to release funds to various commercial banks through various financial instruments, and then commercial banks will release money to enterprises and individuals in need of funds.
The process of commercial banks lending money out is generally in the form of loans.
Here, the central bank is like a money printing machine, and the commercial bank is equivalent to the intermediary of money flowing into the market, completing the process of releasing money to the society.
So we can understand now that money has been printing, and the central bank has been guiding funds into the real economy, but the problem is that there is a problem with the transmission of funds, and the money in the hands of commercial banks has not smoothly entered the hands of enterprises and individuals to achieve the purpose of revitalizing the economy.
In other words, the extra money is still stuck in the country's financial system, which is the so-called "capital idling", which is the fundamental reason why the economy has been stimulated this year, but the effect is not so ideal.
As we mentioned earlier, the main form of money transfer from commercial banks to the real economy is loans.
So now the question arises, if you open a commercial bank, who will you lend money to?
Many people may answer, of course, who needs to lend to whom, but let's not forget that the bank is also a profit-making institution to put it bluntly, and it is also to avoid risks.
The reality is that businesses that are in dire need of a loan may not qualify for a loan from a bank at all
If you don't have this money, you can't run a business, so how dare I lend you money?
Therefore, this leads to the fact that although commercial banks have the tasks assigned by the above to support the real economy, "there are policies and countermeasures", either to those large state-owned enterprises that do not need loans at all, or, to put it mildly, to some subsidiaries of state-owned enterprises, because these enterprises have small risks, even if there is a real problem with capital turnover, there will be people to help "the bottom".
But the key problem is that this part of the enterprise itself is in a relatively strong position in the industry, and it is precisely that they do not need loans, what will they do if they get a large amount of low-interest loans?
Isn't it fragrant to be in the bank, buy some wealth management products to eat interest, and be a middleman to earn a little difference?
But if you look at it at the macro level, this has led to the central bank constantly printing money and releasing water, but the money has not been able to reach the enterprises and individuals who really need it, but has been squatting on the bank accounts to eat interest.
Therefore, it will lead to the idling of funds, although a vigorous printing of money, but it cannot fundamentally solve the problem.
After analyzing this, I believe everyone understands that the key issue now is how to make banknotes flow and guide money into the real economy.
Here we can start from two aspects:
First of all, it is to crack down on the funds that use interest rate spread arbitrage at the implementation side and policy level.
For example, some enterprises take advantage of policy support to borrow a low-interest or even interest-free loan, but do not invest in production, but use the borrowed money to buy deposits or wealth management products with higher interest rates.
Secondly, it is still a cliché to continue to stimulate demand and open up the internal circulation.
In the past, we printed money, in fact, a large part of it was sent to everyone through real estate, houses were sold, and there were dozens of upstream and downstream supporting industries, from reinforced concrete to home appliance manufacturing, and many people could benefit from it.
But now we insist on "housing not speculation", the real estate industry has been put on the brakes, coupled with people's confidence in the future has decreased, reducing large sums of consumption, so this part of the demand has fallen, resulting in a lot of funds have nowhere to go, can only be idled in the financial system.
Now to solve the problem of idle funds, we need to expand demand, help everyone restore confidence in the future, dare to open their wallets to spend, so that this part of the money has a place to go, and then drive the economy.
From this point of view, this year, we have carried out medical anti-corruption in response to medical problems, and we have continuously lowered mortgage interest rates in response to housing loan problems, especially the interest rates on existing housing loans, all in order to release everyone's consumption demand and restore people's confidence.
Write at the end:
The speed of our economic recovery has been greatly affected by the idling of funds, and the battle for financial defense has begun.
Next, we still need to continue to restore people's confidence and increase people's consumption demand in order to solve the problem of capital idling and make the economy truly recover.