Dawang Financial News article
According to the China Liquor Industry Association's "2023 China Liquor Market Interim Research Report", digesting inventory is the top priority for liquor companies in 2023.
According to the data, as of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the total inventory of 20 A-share listed liquor companies was 1,3635.4 billion yuan, of which the inventory of five liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, exceeded 10 billion yuan.
For the liquor market, Bai Longjun, general manager of Dujiangyan Long Commercial and Trade Bank, told Chengdu ** reporters: "This industry has the ability to go through the cycle. In this process, big brands and high-quality wine companies are the ultimate winners. Dealers with relatively weak financial strength and profit-seeking will be eliminated in the market adjustment. ”
The stock price has halved from its 52-week high
On December 9th, the drunkard held a rich meeting, at which the drunkard completely blackened himself in front of the leaders, distributors and employees. According to the scene, its Chinese case includes:"Performance is directly cut in half", "* upside down", "messy and a bunch of cultural and creative works", "stock price", "speculation", "high inventory", "channeling", "what is the management doing?"."Pull out the seedlings to help grow".Wait.
With the slowdown in dynamic sales and the emergence of inverted sales, the performance and stock price of alcoholic liquor have continued to decline in the past two years. As of December 15, the share price of Alcoholic Liquor was 6719 yuan shares, compared to the highest share price of 166 in 52 weeks53 yuan shares have been cut in half, and the decline led the entire liquor sector.
Ironically, at the annual general meeting of shareholders in June 2022, Wang Hao, then Secretary of the Party Committee, Chairman of COFCO Wine and Spirits and Chairman of Alcoholic Spirits, emphasized: "We are confident that we will achieve the vision of 10 billion revenue yuan. And after being hit by reality, at the drunkard wine and rich conference, Zheng Yi, vice chairman and general manager of the alcoholic liquor company"In 2024, our goal is to achieve restorative growth among alcoholics".
In fact, the development of alcoholic wine is indeed unusually rapid. Not only did it take only six or seven years to take high-end and nationalization as the development momentum, and the revenue rose from hundreds of millions all the way to more than 4 billion, but also the stock price exceeded 330% in 2020, and the stock price once exceeded 270 yuan in 2021, and the market value even exceeded 70 billion yuan at the peak.
And this year, the drunkard no longer emphasizes the national layout, but turns the goal to expand the Hunan base market. At the general meeting of shareholders in June this year, Jiujiu Liquor further elaborated that in the future, it will choose regional markets with cooperation foundation and brand foundation, including Hunan, Henan, Shandong, Hebei and other places, focusing on strengthening the control of terminals and consumer cultivation.
In addition, in terms of inventory, the channel destocking of alcoholic liquor is not smooth. In the first half of this year, the total output of the three series of internal ginseng, drunkard and Xiangquan was 7,345 tonsThis is 4,273 tonnes less than the same period last year, of which the internal reference series and the drunkard series are both missing nearly half,Xiangquan is more than 80% less.
Although the situation of drunkard wine is not very good today, it still retains its principles. Zheng Yi emphasized: "Alcoholic liquor will never develop products on a large scale in exchange for sales, never reduce the brand positioning of alcoholics and internal references in exchange for sales, never reduce quality and increase scale in exchange for sales, and never sacrifice ** in exchange for sales."
On December 13, Guotai Junan released a research report on the rating of alcoholic liquor. Guotai Junan gave Alcoholic Liquor an "overweight" rating with a target price of no more than 899 yuan, which is no more than 22 yuan compared with the current stock price79 yuan. Its ** alcoholic liquor net profit in 2023 is 61.5 billion yuan.
The performance of drunkard liquor has been "thundered" three times in a row
According to public information, Jiujiu Liquor Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the production and sales of liquor series products. The company has three series of products: "internal reference", "drunkard" and "Xiangquan". The date of establishment is July 14, 1997, and the registered capital is 32.5 billion yuan, the company's legal representative is Wang Hao, and the listing date is July 18, 1997.
As the Matthew effect of liquor becomes more and more obvious, the ability of leading liquor companies to control the high-end market continues to increase.
The retreat of second- and third-echelon liquor companies to low-end and sub-high-end liquor products may become the future trend of the liquor industry.
October 27, p.
The second and third echelons of alcoholic liquor released the third quarter report of 2023, and the cumulative operating income in the first three quarters was 214.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3854%;The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 47.9 billion yuan, down 50 percent year-on-year75%。In this regard, the drunkard liquor said: The decline in operating income is mainly due to the decline in the income of the internal reference series, the drunkard series, and the Xiangquan seriesThis was mainly due to a decrease in operating income.
And this is the third time that the performance of alcoholic wine has "exploded" this year. In the first quarter of 2023, the total revenue of alcoholic liquor will be about 95.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4287%;The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4238%;In the first half of the financial report,Alcoholic liquor achieved an operating income of about 154.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3924%;Net profit is about 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4123%。
It is worth noting that the inventory of alcoholic liquor is also high. The financial report shows thatIn the first quarter of 2023, the inventory of alcoholic liquor was about 137.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2019%;In the first half of the year, inventories totaled about 141.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1727%;In the third quarter, the cumulative inventory was about 145.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1923%。
Alcoholic liquor still chooses to increase production capacity despite high inventory. On August 27, the ecological koji-making industrial park with an annual output of 20,000 tons of Daqu was started, and the first and second phases of the production area three are under construction, and it is expected that 10,800 tons of production capacity will be added after completion. However, combined with the dynamic sales capacity of alcoholic liquor, the increase in production capacity may further increase the future inventory pressure of alcoholic liquor.
According to the information on the research activities released by the alcoholic liquor on October 31, some investors asked: "How is the company's inventory in the near future, and how is it going to control the inventory in the future?"”
In response, the drunkard said: "The company keeps the inventory within a reasonable range according to the dynamic sales and dealer confidence. Since the beginning of this year, the company has adhered to the cost reform, not to the dealers to press the goods, the goal is to improve the dynamic sales end and rise steadily, reduce the pressure on dealers' inventory, and lay a solid foundation for the company's long-term stable development. ”