"Looking at 2024 now, it will continue to roll, whether it is automotive (market) or energy storage, whether it is batteries or raw materials, it will continue to roll, and the industry will begin to enter a reshuffle period. ”
On December 12, the 4th Battery Day of SVOLT was held in Huzhou, Zhejiang. Yang Hongxin, chairman and CEO of SVOLT Energy, bluntly stated the recent situation of the battery industry. "We see that in the context of structural overcapacity and the rapid decline of batteries, there is a huge challenge in the operation of many enterprises. ”
Yang Hongxin, Chairman and CEO of SVOLT.
What about honeycomb energy?
2023 is coming to an end, and in the first 11 months, SVOLT has installed 718GWh, ranked 7th in the industry.
Yang Hongxin said bluntly, "We are not particularly satisfied with this figure. But he also pointed out that in the field of PHEVs, in the field of ternary batteries, they rank high. "Therefore, in identifying market segments, identifying popular models, and identifying large single products is a direction that we will focus on building next. ”
Specific to the response in 2024, Yang Hongxin said that it is necessary to enter the stage of "innovation leading" from "innovation landing", and increase the strength of technology and products on the basis of the full implementation of short knife + flying stack. "At the same time, upgrading in AI intelligent manufacturing and customer service to be market leader is our new 2024 Lingbee strategy. ”
As the core product strategy, Hive will continue to promote the global short knife strategy and promote the comprehensive evolution of the short knifeIn the field of passenger cars, the world's first full-range short-knife fast charging iterative upgrade products, covering 22C to 5C applications in all scenarios.
Yang Hongxin also disclosed several core business indicators of SVOLT in 2024, including more than 11 domestic strategic customers, more than 6 overseas strategic customers, and more than 40 new models. Manufacturing costs are reduced by 40%, and procurement costs + technology are reduced by 20%. The proportion of new production lines and ramp-up production lines decreased from 64% to 14%.
Yang Hongxin said, "Last week, I also put forward a request to some core ** businessmen, in 2024, we hope to reduce the cost of raw material procurement by 15%-20%, this pressure is very huge, butWe need to find a way to solve it together, otherwise it will be difficult to survive in the competition of the industry.
2024: Only more volumes
For those in the battery industry, 2023 is a year that hopes to wave goodbye as soon as possible.
Although China's new energy vehicle production and sales have a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%, the cumulative installed volume of power batteries has also increased by 31% year-on-year4%。However, on the one hand, the growth rate of plug-in hybrid range extension is large; On the other hand, the power battery industry was put into production too much in the past few years, and there is a mismatch with the current demandThe power battery market in 2023 is quite bleak.
According to the PPT of Yang Hongxin's speech,In 2023, the power battery will be 40%, the iron-lithium energy storage cell will decrease by 49%, the capacity utilization rate of lithium battery will be only 46%, and the capacity utilization rate of the four main materials will be 60%.
For listed companies, revenue growth has generally slowed down, and profit growth has turned negative.
However, the 2024 that people in the battery industry are looking forward to may not be too good.
Yang Hongxin's quote of ** shows,In 2024, at the ** level, whether it is battery production capacity or the production capacity of main materials, there will be a significant surplus, "The structural contradiction between supply and demand in the entire industry in 2024 is still very prominent." ”
On the demand side, in the first quarter of 2024, there will be a relatively obvious decline, "but from the second quarter onwards, it will still resume high-speed growth." ”
* level, it will continue to decline. Yang Hongxin combined with three independent companies, Bloomberg, Gaogong Lithium and Xinchun LithiumThe battery pack** will increase from 076 wh down to 0 in 20304 yuan Wh or so.
Specific to the cells and materials in 2024, the ternary power battery** is about 05-0.52 yuan Wh, iron-lithium energy storage battery** at 035-0.38 yuan wh or so.
Of course, there is good news.
Yang Hongxin thinksThe global new energy market penetration rate is still growing rapidly. Although China's share of new energy from the world, from 578% may drop to about 44% in the future, but it is still a high-growth market.
Yang Hongxin concluded, "There are many structural problems in the entire market in 2024, and it will be very volatile. But he still expressed confidence, "Make up your mind, identify the direction, and firm our steps, as long as we work hard, we will definitely succeed."
Strategy 2024
So how does SVOLT deal with the volume of this industry and how to deal with cyclical adjustments? Our main strategy, whether in 2023 or 2024, will be to respond with a new product route and open up the market with a global short knife. Yang Hongxin said.
At this battery day, Yang Hongxin also discussed the changes in product demand.
In the PHEV (including range extender, the same below) market, due to the general trend of the same price of oil and electricity, PHEV is the main battlefield of head-to-head confrontation with fuel vehicles, and the share of PHEV in the sales of new energy vehicles in the next three years is expected to be close to 50%. In terms of consumer demand, the PHEV market is showing trends such as large power and long battery life, rising pure electric usage, and increasing demand for charging convenience.
In the BEV market, under the trend of high-voltage pure electric vehicles, the cell capacity will evolve to 100-150ah, and SVOLT's short-knife fast-charging battery has a higher volume utilization rate than the traditional size, and also performs better in terms of circularity and safety performance, and also has strong compatibility and adaptability, which is more suitable for CTC design.
Specific to the product level, SVOLT released the "second-generation hybrid cell" this time, upgrading the hot-selling large products in the PHEV market 62ah, 90ah, and 117ah to 22C fast charging, and "acceleration without price increase" while realizing fast charging upgrades.
At the same time, SVOLT also launched three new products for the PHEV market, namely the world's first ultra-300km endurance hybrid iron-lithium short-knife fast charging core, the world's first ultra-350km endurance hybrid ternary short-knife fast charging core and the world's first 800V-3C hybrid fast charging core, which further meet the needs of B-class, C-class SUVs and MPV hybrid models with 45kWh-65kWh configuration.
In the field of BEV, SVOLT has launched two specifications of LFP short knife fast charging cells of L400 and L600, with a capacity of 105Ah, 130Ah and 133Ah respectively, which can achieve a charging rate of up to 4C. According to the plan, the L600-based short-knife fast charging core will cover 3-4C scenarios, and it is expected to be mass-produced in Q3 in 2024; The L400-based short-knife ultra-fast charging core will cover 4C and higher rate scenarios, meet the mainstream 800V high-voltage models in the market, and will be mass-produced in Q4 2024.
In the commercial vehicle track, SVOLT adopted the strategy of commercial and passenger sharing and commercial storage sharing, launched the commercial and passenger shared short knife battery and the world's first commercial vehicle short knife standard box, and based on the commercial vehicle short knife battery, launched the world's first commercial storage integrated battery pack - Basalt.
This product uses a short knife cell, with a higher degree of integration, reducing the number of parts by about 15%, further reducing the cost, and at the same time, it can also achieve acupuncture without smoke, and can realize the intelligent call of different amounts of electricity according to the scene, so as to meet the interconnection and interchange of mainstream vehicle enterprises and energy storage enterprises in different application scenarios.
In the energy storage track, SVOLT has released a new iteration of flying stack short knife energy storage battery based on the "flying stack + short knife" solution, including 350ah flying stack short knife energy storage special cells with unchanged size and upgraded system and 710ah flying stack short knife energy storage cells with thickened size, which have the advantages of high capacity and low cost, as well as three long-life system energy storage cells with a capacity of 310ah, 330ah and 660ah, as well as the world's first 6MWh-20 foot container.
In terms of cutting-edge technology layout, SVOLT has released the world's first 350km+ endurance short-knife sodium-ion battery and the world's first short-knife energy storage sodium-ion battery, which have completed all reliability tests and have outstanding advantages in low-temperature performance.
In addition,SVOLT Energy Jelly Battery ushered in a new generation, and launched the world's first prismatic semi-solid-state battery - the second-generation jelly battery, which adopts the second-generation jelly electrolyte technology and integrated composite cathode technology, breaks through the expansion bottleneck of high-nickel silicon-doped system in square shell, and has significantly improved compared with liquid ternary in terms of safety and energy density, and has completed the development of a sample.
In addition to the product level, SVOLT also cites the two major capabilities of AI intelligent manufacturing and bee speed service, hoping to improve itself in both operation and service areas to pass through the downturn cycle of the industry.
Report card for 2023
In 2023, SVOLT's total shipments and rankings will not be much improved compared with 2022 and previous years. However, in terms of products, production capacity and customer development, SVOLT still has a lot to offer.
At the product level, the popular single products created by SVOLT have been recognized by car companies.
Among them,Taking advantage of the outbreak of China's PHEV and range extender market in 2023, the Hive 117AH product will be equipped with 9 models, and it will be in full production throughout the year. The 62AH PHEV battery is produced on nearly 10 production lines and is equipped with 5 models. In addition, the 106ah product is also equipped on six models. In 2023, a total of 40 models will be put on sale, with a total shipment of 13GWh.
In terms of SVOLT's first mass-produced cobalt-free battery, 2023 will usher in the peak period of loading, with a total of 13,720 units installed so far.
In terms of fast-charging short-knife lithium iron phosphate batteries, Honeycomb Energy 2The 2C products were officially loaded and mass-produced, and the number of installed vehicles reached 5,280 units.
In terms of customer development,In addition to the existing 17 star customers, SVOLT will add several strategic customers such as BMW, SAIC-GM-Wuling and GCL in 2023. Hive has also expanded into customers in India and the United States.
The development and verification of the star product of SVOLT Energy, the dragon scale armor battery, has been basically completed, and it will be officially mass-produced in the second quarter of next year. In 2024, we will also launch a second Dragon Scale Armor product.
SVOLT Energy's technology brand, Flying Stack Rapid Lamination Technology, has achieved initial large-scale results. The flying stack equipment has been successfully introduced into the three major bases of the hive, "from Yancheng in May, to Shangrao in July, to Chengdu in October, all of them have been introduced into mass production." ”
In terms of overseas layout, the Hive Thailand factory lasted 5 months of construction, the first battery pack will be off the assembly line on December 20, and it will be officially delivered in February next year.
The main office building structure of Plant H in Germany has been completed and is expected to be put into use in the first quarter of 2024. "We will build it into a production base for battery energy storage, and the specific equipment entry time will be adjusted according to customer orders. ”
In addition, the honeycomb ecology created by Honeycomb Energy, including the industrial park Dazhou Zero Carbon Industrial Park, the battery company Teng Qingqing, and the intelligent manufacturing company Dr. Octopus have also made rapid progress.
This is the 4th Battery Day of SVOLT 5 years since its establishment. This new power battery army, which was born from Great Wall Motors, can be called a "dark horse" in the starting stage. After entering this wave of industry adjustment period since the end of 2022, SVOLT still adheres to the strategy of technological innovation and differentiated competition, and strives to go through the adjustment cycle.
Yang Hongxin said at the end of his speech: "Although we are facing a lot of challenges, because doing things that no one has ever done, paying costs, paying more pits, and stepping on more pits than others, we believe that this is the right path, and we must go on and unswervingly until we reach the leading position in the world." ”