On September 16, 2023, at the Global Energy Transition High-level Forum, Liu Jizhen, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said impassionedly:
"We must have a clear understanding of energy storage, energy storage is not omnipotent, the future of the new power system, the energy system with new energy as the main body after the energy transition, energy storage to play a role, but very limited!”
This sentence is quite like a roar on the slope of Nagasaka, and the mighty industrial army has to stop and think about it.
In the past, we often talked about policy guidance, production capacity clearance, technology iteration, and category comparison, and we were very busy, talking about "what's the use", which is from an industrial perspective.
Now, in the face of such a new thing as energy storage, what we still need to talk about is how to position it, how to use it, whether the market mechanism has room for it to play, how the policy is implemented, and how much it is used, which is the perspective of the power system.
In the face of the voice of "source-grid-load-storage" in the industry, Zheng Yaodong, an expert from China Southern Power Grid, said in 2Gaogong Energy Storage Conference said that "energy storage will never become the 'fourth foot' of the power system".
Then, how to treat energy storage has become the next step to consider.
On October 25, the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Stability of the Power System under the New Situation", which clearly pointed out that the construction of energy storage should be scientifically arranged, and energy storage should be scientifically planned and configured as needed. According to the needs of the power system, coordinate the construction of various regulation resources, promote the scientific allocation of various energy storage according to local conditions, and form power regulation and stability control capabilities with multiple time scales and multiple application scenarios.
Before discussing how to adapt to local conditions, we should re-examine the current state of energy storage applications.
Combined with the recent communication with power practitioners, Xinliu Think Tank noticed that for the power system, energy storage still needs to consider the following points:
1. The distribution and storage on the power generation side is not the end point;
2. There is also a difficult scripture on the energy storage side;
3. Intricate power system.
Since 2019, the mandatory allocation and storage policy has driven a large number of installed capacity, and the industry is vigorous from the outside.
But according to industry insiders,In practice, there is no set of detailed standards for how to rationally use energy storage equipment, either at the national or local levels.
This leads to a serious problem: although the power generation side is equipped with energy storage facilities in accordance with the requirements, the grid side is very cautious when it comes to practical applications due to the lack of clear operating and safety standards.
Based on safety considerations, the power grid dispatching does not know how much is appropriate, and in the face of a series of unknown risks that may occur, energy storage has, but it cannot be utilized.
This consideration is not unreasonable, if the power generation group has only one quantitative index in its hands, then there will be problems with the quality of the purchased batteries, and the supporting protection work will not be done well, which will cause huge safety hazards.
The result is that no one is satisfied. It was only this year that several policies were intensively followed up.
On February 5, the Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China and the National Energy Administration issued the "Guidelines for the Construction of a New Energy Storage Standard System" to formulate a new national standard.
On November 16, the General Department of the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Risk Monitoring of the Safe Operation of Electrochemical Energy Storage Power Stations on the Power Generation Side and the Grid Side" to strengthen the risk monitoring and early warning of the safe operation of electrochemical energy storage power stations on the power generation side and the grid side.
But that's not enough.
Electricity practitioner Van ErkoonExclamation,"Although the current energy storage technologies such as lithium battery and liquid flow are claimed10 years or 12 yearsThe life span, but everyone has no bottom in their hearts, and the first batch of installations is only two or three years, and the number of charging and discharging is simply not enough to test whether it can meet the parameters of publicity. In terms of industry feedback, insiders are not particularly confident in this."
This is good news for the new energy storage technology, standing at this node, whether it is lithium battery or liquid flow, in fact, has not experienced a complete inspection cycle.
If all of the above problems can be solved, another acute problem awaits us: economy.
At the 2023 World Power Battery Conference Energy Storage Development Summit Forum, Hui Dong, chief technical expert of the Electric Power Research Institute, pointed out that the adjustment cost of new energy storage equipment is much higher than that of thermal power units with flexible transformation.
Now the cost of flexible transformation of thermal power units, adjusting one kilowatt-hour of electricity may be 005-0.12 yuan, the cost of pumped storage to regulate one kilowatt-hour of electricity is about 025-0.$4. However, in terms of electrochemical energy storage, which is currently the best performing in new energy storage, its regulation cost is now basically 05-0.6 yuan, which is almost 5 to 8 times the cost of thermal power regulation, or even higher.
The construction of energy storage system can be based on the future to talk about ideals, but in the end, it must be based on realistic cost considerations.
Judging from the national power industry statistics released by the National Energy Administration from January to November, thermal power still maintains a rapid growth in absolute installed capacity. In addition to being a supporting power supply, it also undertakes a part of the regulating role.
List of national electric power industry statistics from January to November.
In this regard, Zheng Yaodong, an expert from China Southern Power Grid, pointed out that the energy storage power station "built but not used" may be due to quality problems, but "built but not adjusted" is not surprising, and it may be that other more economical regulation resources have been used to maintain the stability of power and frequency. Hydropower, thermal power, and nuclear power units all have the ability to regulate, and they are all competitors to energy storage.
Source: 2023 Gaogong Energy Storage Annual Conference.
From policy implementation to qualityFrom quantity testing to cost considerations, it takes time for energy storage to fully unlock its value.
Since it is a compulsory allocation of reserves, as a matter of increasing costs, we have to consider the willingness of enterprises to allocate reserves.
In March this year, KPMG released a report entitled "New Energy Storage Helps Energy Transition", which found that the current distribution and storage costs of new energy enterprises are mainly borne by the enterprises themselves, which brings greater pressure to enterprises. Companies may prefer energy storage products with lower performance and lower initial costs, and use energy storage as a tool to prioritize the integration of renewable energy into the grid.
In November 2022, the "Investigation Report on the Operation of New Energy Distribution and Energy Storage" released by the China Electricity Council clearly pointed out that the equivalent utilization coefficient of new energy distribution and storage projects is 61%, and 15 percent for thermal power plants3% and 14 for grid energy storage8% and 28% of consumer energy storage3%。
The consequence of this phenomenon is that since distribution is an additional cost, it is better to make this cost as small as possible. As a result, the phenomenon of bad money driving out good money has arisen.
Fan Erkun, a power practitioner, pointed out that the enterprises that need to be allocated and stored are bidding for the best price, and the industry continues to pour in newcomers, crazy expansion of production capacity, and the first decline has been declining all the way, since the second half of the year, the voice of calling for the industry to cool down has been endless. But the market is there, for some demand, the cheaper the better, and the quality is secondary. As a result, energy storage does come in, but it is not used.
Cost sensitivity not only affects the quality of energy storage, but also affects the energy storage category.
Fan Erkun lamented that at this point in time, lithium iron phosphate is a crushing existence for other technical routes, because it is too cheap, one piece per watt-hour.
Second, a piece of three **, provides any kind of energy storage can not provide the economy.
Fluidics is a new technology, and there is also a lot of pressure to reduce costs.
Xinliu Think Tank understands that even companies that master vanadium ore are more attractive than vanadium flow battery companies. In this regard, the thinking of power generation companies is very clear: technology does innovate, but it does not reduce costs. Since vanadium mining companies have indicated that they can lease ore directly, the benefits they bring may be more obvious.
Van ErkouenIt was revealed that in terms of the total amount, the pool for auxiliary services of the power system is very small, maybe only 3。Energy storage really wants to achieve a larger market, but also for the electric energy itself, the spot market is a larger than the ancillary service market20 times the pool
In this regard, Zheng Yaodong, an expert from China Southern Power Grid, also said that energy storage should be independently traded in the power market, and buying green electricity and energy storage power may be more conducive to the export of products.
Academician Liu Jizhen once used a very vivid analogyIn the process of large-scale new energy consumption, new energy storage basically did not play a significant role, which is equivalent to the Yangtze River water making several barrels of mineral water, which did not play a role. Therefore, it is important to prescribe the right medicine.
Source: Academician Liu Jizhen's keynote report.
According to industry insiders, the power trading center established after the electricity reform in 2015 is also quite complicated.
The power trading centers of the provinces are now central enterprises, but in theory, they are actually close to a public institution authorized by the local government, and have some administrative rights. It will represent the province to match all electricity transactions in the province and be responsible for the results of electricity transactions.
But the complexity of the matter is that almost all provincial power traders come from power grid companies, and the main income of these people comes from power grid companies, and their power comes from local authorization.
The industry concludes that they are both "athletes" and "referees", lacking sufficient credibility.
In this regard, since 2018, the state has issued relevant documents for share reform.
So far, it seems that since 2020, the intensity of relevant reporting has decreased.
According to people familiar with the matter, although some power trading centers have successfully reformed their shares, this work has not yet been completed and is still in the process of being promoted。The power trading market is undoubtedly an important part of the process of further seeking market value for energy storage.
In addition, the grid side is not in a hurry about distribution and storage.
According to Fan Erkun, an electric power practitioner, the profitability of the power grid actually depends on the "express fee" of the transmission and distribution price set by the state. However, the state clearly stipulates that the express fee corresponds to the overall permitted cost, and this permitted cost cannot include emerging energy storage.
Although the government has opened up some opportunities, if the grid-side energy storage is indeed more economical than the line, it can be allowed to invest in energy storage. However, the official did not indicate how the grid side should prove that investing in energy storage is more cost-effective than investing in lines.
As a result, the provincial companies do not dare to invest because they do not have the current standards, for fear that they will not be recognized after investing, and finally this part of the money will not be able to be approved. As a result, grid-side energy storage has only been piloted in various provinces.
For energy storage, due to the special nature of the power system, how to release value is a comprehensive oneIt not only relies on the industry's cost reduction, efficiency increase and technological breakthroughs, but also satisfies users and sees a value return mechanism that can sustain profits, and at the same time needs an open and serious market mechanism.
It is undeniable that energy storage does carry the infinite value of new technologies, but before the arrival of the new power system, how to put it in the right position in a safe and cost-effective way may be a new blueprint to be drawn by the government, enterprise and research in addition to capital.