The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been going on for nine months, and the two sides have attacked and defended each other on the battlefield, causing a large number of losses of people and materials. However, just when Western countries are calling for a ceasefire between the two sides and the start of peace talks, Ukraine is trying to induce the United States and NATO to directly participate in the war against Russia through a missile incident. Was this an elaborate trap or an unintentional mistake?And how did the United States and NATO see through and reject Ukraine's trap?
On November 15, Russia launched the largest missile attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict, using 96 cruise missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, drones, etc., to hit the infrastructure of the entire territory of Ukraine, in order to weaken Ukraine's war potential and shake the foundation of public opinion in Kyiv. Among them, Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers were involved in the bombing, the targets of which included the Lviv region on the border with Poland.
Ukrainian air defense systems were activated during Russian missile strikes, trying to intercept Russian missiles. However, in the process, an unexpected thing happened: two Ukrainian S300 anti-aircraft missiles flew out of Ukrainian airspace and fell into the territory of Poland, causing the death of two civilians. The trajectories of the two missiles were tracked by a NATO aircraft and transmitted to a NATO command center, where they were then shared with the United States and Poland.
The ** and nature of these two missiles were quickly confirmed by the intelligence services of the United States and NATO. However, Ukraine did not admit that the two missiles were launched by itself, but instead accused Russia of being behind the missile incident, claiming that Russia deliberately struck NATO's territory with missiles, which was a provocation to NATO's collective security and a very significant escalation, requiring NATO to take action.
Ukraine is doing this because it has an ulterior purpose: Ukraine wants to drag the United States and NATO into the conflict and confront them directly against Russia, thereby reducing its own pressure, accelerating the course of the war, and achieving its strategic goals.
This purpose of Ukraine is made up of Ukrainian motives, opportunities, plans and actions.
Ukraine's motive is because in the conflict, although Ukraine has achieved some military victories, it has also paid a huge price, and it is facing more and more intense counterattacks, more and more powerful blows, and more and more heavy pressure from Russia. Ukraine fears that it will not be able to withstand a protracted war, and that its social will will be shaken by the attrition of the war. Ukraine hopes to end the war as soon as possible and regain the lost territories, especially Crimea. Ukraine believes that this can only be achieved if more countries are involved in the conflict.
Ukraine's opportunity is because Russia's missile attack on Ukraine has given Ukraine an opportunity to take advantage of. Ukraine can use this to create a missile incident, let its own anti-aircraft missiles fall on Polish territory, and then shift the blame to Russia, thus arousing the attention and sympathy of Western countries, and even provoking their anger and actions. Ukraine can use Poland's membership of NATO to demand that NATO activate Article 5 of collective defense and take action against Russia.
Ukraine's plan, according to its own purpose, lays out a detailed set of steps to implement its own trap. Ukraine's plans include:
1.In the Russian missile strikes, it deliberately or accidentally let its own anti-aircraft missiles fly out of Ukrainian airspace and fall into the territory of Poland, causing civilian deaths.
2.At a time when Poland has not yet confirmed the nature and nature of the missile, it quickly declared that Russia was behind the missile incident, a provocation to NATO's collective security, a very significant escalation, and demanded that NATO take action.
3.Unleashed**, convince the West** and the public of their own claims, condemn and put pressure on Russia, and at the same time lobby and plead with the United States and NATO in the hope that they will support themselves against Russia.
Ukraine's actions, in accordance with its own plans, have taken a series of measures to carry out its own trap. Ukraine's actions include:
1.Immediately after the missile incident, it sent its own senior **, including **, the head of the staff, the foreign minister, etc., to issue a statement to the outside world, accusing Russia of being behind the missile incident, a provocation to NATO's collective security, a very significant escalation, and demanding NATO action.
2.Mobilize their own ** agencies, carry out a large number of reports on the missile incident, publicize their own claims, smear Russia's behavior, provoke the emotions of Western countries, and call on Western countries to impose sanctions and retaliate against Russia.
3.Reach out to their allies, especially Poland, and get them to support their claims, to ** and put pressure on Russia, and also to turn to the United States and NATO for help.