There are news reports that China's exports finally achieved positive growth in November, although they fell for six consecutive months. However, a Japanese ** "Nikkei Chinese Network" pointed out that this is in exchange for commodity price reduction. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's exports in November amounted to:RMBThe calculation reaches 21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%；In US dollar terms, it was $291.9 billion, an increase of 05%。That is, either pressedRMBStill in dollar terms, China's exports have grown.
According to statistics, since the beginning of 2023, ** has been reporting the accumulation of containers at the port and the recession of foreign trade, making people think that exports may appearNegative growth。However, exports continued to grow from January to February, with significant increases in March and April. However, exports began in MayNegative growthand lasted for 10 months. There were two main reasons for the increase in exports in November. On the one hand, China's foreign trade structure has been continuously upgraded and optimized, and the main export categories in the past were clothing, home appliances, furniture, etc"The old three"consumer goods, and now electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries, solar cells, etc. have become exported"The new three"。In November, China's automobile exports increased by 27 percent year-on-year9%, and the export value of mobile phones increased by 54 percent year-on-year6%, and the export value of integrated circuits increased by 12% year-on-year. Another reason was the low base of exports in the same period last year, when exports fell by 87%。While the export growth in November is encouraging, in reality, there is a lot of pressure on the world** this year. According to the report released by the United Nations** and the Development Conference, the global ** amount is expected to shrink by about 1$5 trillion, down 5% from last year. The reasons for the decline include reduced demand in developed countries, fluctuations in commodities, increased restrictions, and so on. Insufficient external demand is the main reason for the manufacturing sector in the United States and the EurozonepmiIt has remained below 50% for more than 10 consecutive months, and the eurozone has been below 45% for six consecutive months. The EU economy grew weakly, growing at just 04%, much lower than other major economies. Thus, in dollar terms, Chinese exports to the EU still appearNegative growth, for -145%。Exports to the United States, on the other hand, showed positive growth, up 7 percent year-on-year3%, which is achieved for the first time since July 2022. In such a global environment, it is not easy for China to achieve positive growth in exports. However, Nikkei Chinese Network gives a different interpretation, saying that in 17 categories, 71% of goods have seen unit prices fall, believing that Chinese exporters increase exports by lowering selling prices, the cost is huge. For example, the export unit price of bags and shoes has been reduced by 20%, the average export price of household appliances has decreased by 10%, and the export unit price of automobiles has decreased by 10%. According to the volume and value table of key export commodities in November 2023, the export volume of bags increased by 17 percent year-on-year39%, but exports fell by 5%;The number of home appliance exports increased by 24% year-on-year25%, and the export value increased by 11 year-on-year8%；The number of automobile exports increased by 41 percent year-on-year48%, and the export value increased by 27 percent year-on-year9%。Not only these three categories, but also the growth rate of most commodity export volume is higher than the growth rate of export value, which means that the unit price has indeed declined. However, this is actually a normal operation, external demand weakens, competition becomes more intense, and price reductions help reduce inventory and expand market share. Only by surviving can enterprises develop and grow. For example,PinduoduoSweeping the European and American markets through low prices fully illustrates that price reduction is a correct strategy. Judging from the foreign trade data in November, the foreign trade crisis has passed, and the trend of foreign trade stability and improvement has been further consolidated. Although ASEAN, the European Union and the United States remain China's top three markets, China's exports to Russia, Africa, Latin America and Central Asia have also achieved good growth. According to Reuters interviews with several well-known economists, China's exports will continue to grow in 2024. We have also seen the country's unremitting efforts in foreign cooperation, and we believe that China's foreign trade situation will further improve.
In short, China's exports finally grew in November after falling for six consecutive months. Although Nikkei Chinese pointed out the phenomenon of commodity price reduction, this is actually a normal way to deal with the current global ** environment. As the country continues to upgrade its foreign trade structure, new support for China's exports has gradually emerged. As for the development of the foreign trade situation, we should be optimistic about the country's efforts to promote foreign trade cooperation, and believe that China's foreign trade situation will further improve.