First, the big guy asks for ** to increase the position!Previously, a screenshot of the circle of friends circulated on the Internet, "I have never asked for anyone in my life, I beg everyone to increase my position" sent Lin Yuan, chairman of Lin Yuan Investment, a 10 billion private equity institution, to the first outlet. In response, Lin Yuan said that he had not posted a circle of friends, and "asking someone to increase his position" was a misreading, "I just showed a firm and optimistic attitude towards the market outlook, and the suggestion to increase the position is only for the ** customers of Lin Yuan Investment." ”
At a time when the market valuation has been significantly adjusted, Lin Yuan has recently publicly stated that he is optimistic about the investment opportunities in the bottom area of the current market. In response to the investment direction that investors are concerned about, Lin Yuan said that he no longer pays attention to the liquor industry, and in the next 20 to 30 years, he will only look at investment opportunities related to hypertension, heart disease and diabetes.
Second, on the news side, the ** economic work conference emphasized that next year we should focus on promoting high-quality development, highlight the key points, grasp the key, and do a solid job in economic work. We will further implement the deepening and upgrading of the reform of state-owned enterprises, enhance core functions and improve core competitiveness.
Overall, next year's tone is "to promote stability", "progress" begins with the word "progress", and the previous stability maintenance is the main one, and the follow-up policy measures such as RRR and interest rate cuts may be implemented in a timely manner, further release water, and strengthen the economy is the main keynote.
3. Speaking of key factors, if we can determine the end of the Fed's interest rate hike and the interest rate cut in 2024, it is very important for the global perspective, not only for the first time, but also for the opportunities in related industries (such as the promotion of hot spots such as science and technology, medicine), which has been repeatedly introduced in the early stage. This is indeed something that we continue to track, and in fact, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to end this factor was mentioned in the Fed's speech in the early morning of December 14, and even directly mentioned next year's interest rate cut, which is to boost global markets. A-shares also opened higher in this regard, but the subsequent weakening was its own factor, but in fact, the relevant new hot spots are still active.
The risk-free interest rate in the valuation of A-shares is the 10-year Treasury bonds, and when the U.S. Treasury falls and the dollar weakens, the growth varieties of A-shares are active, especially the Federal Reserve is expected to end its interest rate hikes, which will make the growth varieties active. In fact, since the bottom of October 24, TMT (especially media, electronics) + medicine has a clear advantage, which makes the STAR 100 index lead the rise. The recent weakening of U.S. bonds, as well as the reaction of the A** market, the probability of A-shares in the downward range of previous U.S. bond interest rates (2001, 2007, 2019) is higher.
Fourth, let's talk about the index first, a round of rapid ** in October hit a new low of 2923 ** to above 3000 points, but ** a few days later from late November began to continue to fall, we are not afraid of a sharp fall is not afraid of smashing pits, we are afraid of the chronic torture of boiled frogs in warm water, in recent months, they are basically very acquiesced, and the index is not smooth, but from a historical point of view, it is only a matter of time before the repair stands firm at 3000 points, but the process is very tormenting.
The market volume can continue to be sluggish, in the final analysis, the lack of confidence has begun to lie flat, for a long time did not witness the volume can break through the trillion, last Friday also sprinted to the trillion amount of energy, the result of this week's four days of continuous shrinkage, Thursday came to the early 700 billion, the reason is that there is no main line to stand up to drive market sentiment, can not see the money-making effect, natural confidence is sluggish, it depends on whether the main line can stand up to break the deadlock.