Jerusalem, Dec. 22 (Xinhua) --The prospects for a new round of Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire talks are uncertain
Xinhua News Agency reporters Lu Yingxu and Wang Zhuolun.
A number of Israel** recently reported that Israel, the United States and Qatar** held consultations in Warsaw, the capital of Poland, on the exchange of detainees between Palestine and Israel. Leaders of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and other armed groups in the Gaza Strip have recently traveled to Cairo, the capital of Egypt, to discuss with the Egyptian side the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire.
The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for more than 70 days since it broke out on 7 October. Analysts pointed out that Israel was forced to return to the negotiating table again in the face of multiple pressures such as calls for priority rescue of detainees at home, and multiple pressures from the United States for de-escalation of military operations and international efforts for a ceasefire. However, there is a big gap between the demands of Israel and Hamas, and the prospects for ceasefire negotiations are uncertain.
Separate intensive talks
On the issue of another ceasefire and the exchange of detainees, the Palestinians and Israelis recently held "intensive talks."
Israel's **18** said, Israeli intelligence and secret service (Mossad) director Barnea met with US ** intelligence director Burns and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Salman in Warsaw on the same day. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh led a delegation to Cairo, the capital of Egypt, on the 20th to hold talks with the Egyptian side.
Egypt's Al-Ahram newspaper quoted an unnamed source as saying that Hamas and Egypt would "prepare an agreement" for the release of detainees and the lifting of the blockade of the Gaza Strip.
Israel** Herzog said on the 19th that Israel is ready to implement a humanitarian ceasefire again, and allow more humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip, so as to facilitate the release of more detainees from the Gaza Strip.
Negotiations under pressure
Analysts pointed out that Israel's military goals are currently difficult to achieve, and at the same time, it is facing multiple pressures from the United States to demand de-escalation of military operations, and the international community and domestic people are calling for a ceasefire, so they have to return to the negotiating table.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant have repeatedly said that the military operation in Gaza is aimed at eliminating Hamas and rescuing detainees. Israel and Hamas imposed a temporary seven-day ceasefire beginning on 24 November. During this period, Israel released 240 Palestinians and Hamas released more than 100 detainees. After the expiration of the temporary ceasefire, the two sides resumed fighting in the Gaza Strip. Israel said more than 120 people are still being held by Hamas.
After the end of the temporary ceasefire, Israel targeted the elimination of Hamas leaders and expanded ground operations from the northern part of the Gaza Strip to Khan Younis in the south. The Israeli army has determined that senior Hamas leaders are hiding in Khan Younis, but so far no trace of senior Hamas leaders has been found, and no more detained Israelis have been rescued. The Israeli think tank *** Research Institute recently published an article pointing out that the Israeli army cannot achieve its military goals by ground war alone.
At the same time, there has been a subtle change in the attitude of the United States. As an ally of Israel, the United States has provided Israel with a lot of diplomatic support since the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, with the rapid increase in the number of people in the Gaza Strip, the United States is facing international pressure and has gradually hardened its attitude towards Israel. U.S. Affairs Assistant Jake Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and other U.S. officials have visited Israel one after another in recent days, urging Israel to move its military operations into a "low-intensity phase." The British "Times" recently disclosed that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has set a deadline for Israel to end its ground operation in the Gaza Strip "by the beginning of January next year."
In addition, the families of Israeli detainees recently staged a mass march to demand a ceasefire and the rescue of their relatives. The recent incident in which Israeli troops mistakenly killed three of their own detainees has triggered large-scale ceasefire in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and the pressure on Israel to cease fire has increased sharply.
It's tougher than the last round
A senior Israeli ** told reporters on the 21st that Israeli negotiators had met with the Qatari side and expressed "willingness to reach a new agreement", but only if the conditions of the temporary ceasefire at the end of November must be extended.
Some analysts have pointed out that although the Palestinians and Israelis have returned to the negotiating table again, the current round of ceasefire talks may be very difficult due to the large gap between the demands of the two sides.
According to various sources, Hamas's conditions include a long-term ceasefire with Israel rather than a temporary ceasefire, the release of all Israelis in custody by Hamas, and the release of Palestinians detained by Israel. Israel, for its part, wants a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of the detainees.
Israel's "Novaya Izvestia" newspaper recently quoted a source as saying that the new round of negotiations will be "long and complicated, and more difficult than the previous round."
Some analysts say that if the Israeli army continues to attack the Gaza Strip but fails to achieve the set goals, or if the Israeli side agrees to the higher conditions for the exchange of prisoners offered by Hamas in the negotiations, it is very likely that the far-right forces in Israel will be dissatisfied and withdraw from the ruling coalition, leading to the current collapse. At that time, Israel may usher in a new round of parliamentary elections and another political reshuffle, which will add more uncertainty to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.