According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on December 24, inflation is still persisting in Asia. This is mainly due to higher food prices, which account for 50 to 70 percent of prices** in the Philippines and India. Due to the abnormal climate, rice, which is a staple food, has skyrocketed.
The price rate in the Philippines in November was 41%, compared to 31% and 2 in the EurozoneThe 4% price rate is higher. Among the main factors contributing to inflation, rice** soared at 30%. Marcos Marcos, the Philippines, said that "rice is our life", and at one point set a cap on rice, taking great pains to support the family economy.
In 2022, when Russia's conflict with Ukraine broke out in the breadbasket, global wheat and corn** soared. Food inflation is more pronounced in Europe and the United States, and its impact on Asia is limited.
In 2023, the situation has changed. The centre of food inflation has shifted to Asia, which concentrates 80% of the world's rice demand. Despite the international trend of wheat, rice hit a 15-year high on the 21st, about 40% higher than at the beginning of the year.
The cause is the El Niño phenomenon, in which the sea warms. It began this spring, triggering droughts in South and Southeast Asia. Harvests in major rice-producing countries have declined.
According to the USDA, global rice production is 5100 million tons. Some countries do not rely on domestic production for rice consumption, but rely on imports from other countries. The higher the proportion of dependence on other countries, the deeper the impact. The Philippines ranks first in the world in terms of rice imports.
Currently, India is the leader of Rice International**. In July, the country, which previously accounted for 40% of global rice exports, was not allowed to export all but some high-end rice.
As 2024 will be held, Modi will give priority to domestic. India's price rate was 5 in November6%, which is in a high situation, of which 37% is contributed by grain, while rice alone is **10% (accounting for 0.).5%), is an important factor. It's a situation that can't be taken lightly.
Indonesia will also hold ** elections in 2024. Toru Nishihama, of Japan's Daiichi Life Economics Research Institute, said: "Given food security, the country is likely to prioritize its own security. Perhaps there will be an international **further** situation. ”
Frequent and unusual weather has also led to food concerns, and countries have begun to hoard food. Such a vicious circle is now emerging.
Frederick Newman of HSBC recalled: "The terrible memories of 2008 are hard to erase. "Fifteen years ago, global food prices skyrocketed due to speculative inflows. There are now many food products that fluctuate more dramatically than they did then. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), seven of the eight major crops have experienced excessive changes in 2023.
High food prices have cast a shadow over the lives of people in South and Southeast Asia. In South and South-East Asia, the share of food consumption is already as high as 30 to 50 percent, much higher than in the major developed countries, which account for around 10 to 20 percent. There are not many other ways to save food than to reduce the amount of food we eat, so people's lives have become difficult.
Policy operations will also be swayed by fluctuating food**. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its policy rate by 025 percentage points to 65% p.a. interest rate. Ahead of a regular meeting in November to decide on monetary policy, the country needs to urgently address the price issue.