Today is December 4th, after the thrilling harvest of the good start of December, A-shares will enter the year with more certainty of the red envelope**, but the quality of the red envelope still depends on the recent economic data and changes in the international environment.
So, let's take a look at what major events will happen this week and how they will affect the trend of A-shares, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks
1. China publishes CPI data
On Saturday, China will release its November CPI annual rate, which the market is now expecting to be unchanged from the previous month (-0.).2%）。
According to the market, although the price index was weak in October, with the support of stable growth policies such as the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds and a basket of bonds, prices are expected to be repaired. However, it takes time for the policy to be implemented and implemented, and it may remain low in the short term, and it is still necessary to stabilize the growth policy.
In other words, it is expected that the CPI data situation will still not be satisfactory, combined with the previously announced PMI situation, on the whole, the economic recovery is still relatively tangled and difficult!
But we can also think of it as a ** bottoming at the bottom, and it is expected that after the most difficult time, there will be hope. Considering that consumption enthusiasm will increase significantly towards the end of the year, there will be an opportunity for a reversal of difficulties in the future.
2. On Friday, the United States will release data on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate
The market is currently pricing in an additional 1750,000 people. The U.S. added 150,000 nonfarm payrolls in October, down sharply from 29 in September70,000 people;The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by 01pct to 39%；The labor force participation rate fell back to 627%。Job openings rebounded slightly in September, but turnover rates remained low, and high-frequency data suggests that job openings will continue to fall in the future. The Conference Board's Employment Adequacy Ratio Indicator and the NFIB Hiring Difficulty Index both show that the U.S. job market is still cooling, and the unemployment rate may continue to rise.
The new Fed news agency Nick Timiraroos previously wrote that the Fed has weakened the case for another rate hike this year due to the slowdown in the labor market.
If the non-farm payrolls are lower than expected, then it is very certain that the Fed will stop raising interest rates, and next week, the Fed's last interest rate meeting of the year will be held, and if the employment data weakens, it will stimulate the continuation of **.
III.214 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase expires
This week, the 7-day reverse repurchase maturity of the central bank's open market was 2,136 billion yuan, with 501 billion, 415 billion, 438 billion, 663 billion and 119 billion yuan due from Monday to Friday respectively.
We can focus on the recent actions of the central bank, which is expected to continue to maintain liquidity at the end of the year, in order to continue to give the market easing expectations.
Fourth, the ** Good Price Festival will be opened
On November 24, ** said to the outside world that the ** Good Price Festival will officially open at 8 pm on December 9. Compared with the Double 12 in previous years, there will be an increase in the strength of discounts, the scale of merchants, and the scale of goods.
Although the influence of ** has declined, this year-end event will also stimulate consumer enthusiasm, after all, Jingdong and Pinduoduo will have celebration activities.
5. There are three new shares open for subscription this week!
On December 4, Fengmao shares and Suobao protein subscribed, and on December 7, Amperon subscribed. In addition, Guangsha Huanneng will be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on December 5.
Recently, the money-making effect of new shares is still good, which is also related to the recent decline in the issuance speed of new shares, I hope this downward trend can continue, and the whole market still needs to be cultivated.
1. For the point of view of **, Angkor has released a weekend review a little earlier today, you can refer to it!
2. For A-shares, we focus on the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, the 3007-3042 range, and we need to choose the direction this week, continue to rise, then *** continue, otherwise, it will return to below 3000, and this round will end, so we can continue to wait for the certainty opportunity.
3. In the case of A-share entanglement, there are local opportunities in the sector, and it is still more optimistic about the performance of big technology;
4. The trend of Hong Kong stocks is weak, and we pay attention to Hengke's low-absorption opportunities
5. The definite opportunity for U.S. stocks is coming, and we can continue to increase our positions on dips!
The above is for reference!Analysis