Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that data released by Statistics Norway on Monday showed that the core inflation rate, which is closely watched by economists and the Norges Central Bank, fell to 5 in November8%。This compares to an analyst's ** of 59% compared to 6 for Norges Bank1%。NOK to EUR**02% to 1 euro to 117640 CZK.
Norway's underlying inflation slowed more than analysts expected last month, which could dash the possibility of another rate hike by Norges Bank this week.
The data reinforces the prospect of further cooling of the Norwegian economy, which will face a contraction in early 2024. This also supports the view that Norges Bank has reached the peak of borrowing costs for the current cycle and will hold the key rate at 425% unchanged.
Core inflation appears to have peaked in June and is gradually coming down"Danske Bank analyst Frank Jullum said. "It's still well above the 2% target, which requires continued restrictive monetary policy, but we are likely to see a peak in interest rates as the medium-term inflation drivers shift. ”
A major confidence survey conducted by Norges Bank last week confirmed that the country's economy is likely to stagnate this quarter and contract early next year. According to Norges Bank, Norway's largest bank, Norwegian consumers spent less on shopping during Black Friday week than in any year since 2019, indicating weak consumer demand.
Analysts at Nordea said the weakening of the krona, which has been the worst performer among the major G10 currencies this year, is the only factor that could still prompt the central bank to raise interest rates on Thursday.
Statistics Norway said inflation** was mainly driven by discount campaigns on electronics and furniture, as well as cheaper airfares.
Headline inflation accelerated to 4., driven by higher electricity consumption during cold weather8% compared to 4 for analysts9% compared to 54%。
Marius Gonsholt Hov, chief economist at Handelsblatt Bank, said: "Norges Bank will now be convinced that the underlying growth trend is gradually declining – a condition for them to keep their policy rate unchanged this week. However, he said a full return to inflation target "may still take quite some time."
Neighbouring Denmark saw a similar trend in November, with core inflation coming in from 3 in the previous monthThe 3% drop was to 3%, mainly driven by holiday home rentals and appliance purchases. Tore Stramer, chief economist at the Danish Chamber of Commerce, said in a report that this trend"Very positive", giving hope that inflation will not accelerate sharply again next year.