The market purchase and sales seesaw again, what is the prospect of corn ** after a short recovery?
Since the new season corn has been on the market, it has continuously tested the psychological defense line of the main body of grain, especially in mid-December, which is even rarer, which shows the cruelty of this year's corn market.
With the promotion of ** continuous ** and superimposed stock news, since the end of last week, the domestic corn ** began to stop falling and heating up, but the terminal demand is not timely, and after a short period of rebound, the purchase and sales market has once again fallen into a see-saw mode, and the trend of regionalized operation is obvious.
After a brief period of heating up, the market is back in a tug-of-war mode.
Since the end of November, corn has continued in the Northeast producing regions. There are two most important reasons for this.
On the one hand, after a small amount of construction in November, the end of the year continued to lose money, and the purchase intention of feed enterprises to dry grain weakened, which led to poor drying of corn, and some drying towers stopped harvesting to avoid risks.
On the other hand, due to the shrinking flow of tide grain, the main local deep processing enterprises. Especially around mid-December, the negative concentrated release, deep processing enterprises to purchase ** down, mid-November purchase ** down about 200 yuan tons, forcing some origins such as Heilongjiang and other places to purchase ** below the cost line.
At the same time, some reserves began to be acquired, superimposed on the expectation of the start of the first year ago, the sales of basic grain tightened, and the northern ports and deep processing enterprises raised prices to promote income, which led to the heating up of corn in Northeast China in recent days.
However, due to the monitoring of terminal demand is not timely, after a short decline, the increasingly weak vitality reappeared, on December 26, in addition to Heilongjiang, Jilin some low-price areas to make up for 5-10 yuan tons, most of the area wait-and-see sentiment is strong, drying corn in the first position to cope with the difficulty.
In the northern port, the frequency of fluctuations has accelerated recently, falling below the 100 yuan mark of 2,500 yuan ton and 2,400 yuan ton twice in less than a week. On December 20, the minimum purchase price fell to 2,360 yuan. On December 26, the purchase price of Jinzhou Port was 2,400-2,450 yuan, and the purchase price of Bayuquan Port was 2,430-2,440 yuan.
In North China, due to the grain source in addition to a small amount of outdoor breeding, the main local deep processing enterprises, deep processing enterprises and grain holders, between the long-term consumption state, the arrival of the first immediately lowered, the arrival of the first decline immediately raised.
From the 21st, after a brief decline in arrivals, it began to gradually increase in the past two days. On December 26, deep processing enterprises including Weifang Zhucheng Xingmao and Yiyuan Corn were lowered twice in one day.
Overall, whether it is the Northeast, North China or South sales area, the current purchase and sales market is in a weak state, under the influence of the game mentality of the main body of the entire industrial chain, corn may enter a narrow consolidation state.
Can corn be raised?
After entering January, the warehousing market will definitely pick up, boosted by the low inventory of terminal grain enterprises. But based on the current market dynamics, at least two differences are certain compared to previous years.
First of all, the launch of the pre-holiday socks market will definitely be postponed this year. In previous years, it was basically around New Year's Day, and this year it will most likely be postponed by about a week, which is a great test for the seasonal mentality of terminal grain enterprises and grain holders.
Secondly, this year's pre-holiday storage scale will be smaller than in previous years. The reason for downstream grain enterprises is very simple: some farmers engaged in pre-holiday grain production base farmers have capital turnover needs, have to sell, even if they stay until the year later, as the temperature rises, the risk of grain storage increases, the time of grain will be shortened, perhaps then is the best time to sweep the goods. In this way, the ball is back in the hands of staple food farmers: the scales are opened before the holiday, and the goods are delisted
Although the phased imbalance between supply and demand is the main reason for this year's new season corn, the loss of confidence in the main body of the industrial chain is undoubtedly an important driving force. Otherwise, even if there is a bumper yield, the bumper yield of more than 10 million tons will still not be able to make up for the gap when the supply and demand are balanced throughout the year. In other words, if it weren't for the loss of confidence, the decline wouldn't have been as great.
For grassroots farmers, a hard year has not yielded a lot of money"Received"and even the end of the blood;For the best businessmen, the corn business is becoming more and more difficult to do, and it is better not to do it than to lose money;For the grain enterprises at the end, life is not easy, agriculture continues to lose money, processing enterprises are difficult to earn and pay, take a step back and say, even if there is a heart to pull the brothers against the current, it is more than enough to do it. Taking a step back, even if you have the heart to pull the brothers against the current, you still have more than enough heart and not enough strength.
The dishonesty of the main body of the industrial chain will undoubtedly worsen our food safety. Soybean dependence on imports is a helpless attitude, while corn, at least we have the ability to trust in its own solution. But today, we still see that imported corn continues to pour into the port in large numbers, and the auction of imported corn continues, and it is debatable whether these methods are sufficient!