Last week's release of a wave of big moves in Beijing and Shanghai was a big stimulus for the property market. The two first-tier cities have coincidentally relaxed the regulation of the property market, just like in 2014. However, will this round of regulation and control achieve a "god-level" increase like in 2015?
Looking at it now, 2023 is coming to an end, and the property market is still rubbing at the bottom. So, what about 2024?From a policy perspective, the policies of down payment reduction, monetization and urban reform, value-added tax 5 to 2, reduction of interest rates on existing loans, recognition of housing without loans, frequent interest rate cuts, etc., are the same as in 2014. In 2014, it took 6 months to get the market from the bottom instantly**. And this time, although the routine is the same, the result is "unsatisfactory".
National Bureau of Statistics: In November, the sales area of commercial housing was 100509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80%, of which the area of residential sales decreased by 73%。The sales of commercial housing were 105318 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52%, of which residential sales fell 4 percent year-on-year3%。
First-, second- and third-tier cities' sales of newly built commercial residential buildings** decreased month-on-month, respectively. 4%, a year-on-year increase of **03%、*0.2%, down 16%。Second-hand residential sales** in first-, second- and third-tier cities decreased month-on-month. 7% and 08%, down year-on-year. 9%。
Through the data, it can be found that both developers and second-hand house owners in the market are exchanging price for volume. Behind the volume is the decline of **. is also desperately trying to make money, and it can't catch up with housing prices in 2017, and it can't compare with housing prices in 2023. It's just that the former is **, and the latter is**. I believe that many people have already fallen into numbness, looking forward to the recovery of the property market, but also worried that it will not recover. But no matter how the market changes, the demand remains. Many people still have to face the problem of buying a house. Here are a few suggestions for reference.
1. The existing house can be used for off-plan housing, and the off-plan housing should be selected as much as possible for the "national team".
The funding problem is serious for every developer nowadays. Especially private enterprises, no matter how many tops there are, no matter how brilliant they once were, in the current situation of sluggish sales, the financial pressure is very great. Therefore, when buying a house now, you must pay attention to the actual situation. Don't trust past "achievements". Looking at the whole country, even the members of the "national team" have stopped work, let alone private enterprises.
2. Clarify the needs of buying a house.
When the property market enters the second half, the relationship between supply and demand has changed significantly, from a seller's market to a buyer's market. In the face of the current situation of oversupply in the market, buyers have more choices, and do not blindly decide because of ** discounts. If it is a pure investment, you need to choose carefully.
3. Use leverage with caution.
Be sure to make a full assessment of your family's funds before buying a home. Don't blindly increase leverage and ensure your ability to repay. The current environment is not ideal, and salary cuts and even layoffs have become the norm. The decline in income has undoubtedly increased the pressure to repay the loan, which cannot be ignored. Therefore, it is necessary to properly assess the financial situation.
4. When it is broken, it is broken.
Many people hold assets that are not benign, or even inferior. However, because of the market downturn, the ** shrinkage cannot be made, or the meat is more cut and is unwilling to shoot. As a result, there is a shortage of funds and it is impossible to replace high-quality assets. In the midst of hesitation, not only did they miss the opportunity to replace, but they also led to inferior assets being smashed in their hands. Breaking away is destined to bring losses, but from another point of view, there may be more.
The above is a suggestion for those who have recently bought a house. We can't foresee the future, but we have to look at the present rationally. It is hoped that the property market can warm up as soon as possible. In the end, although it is a cliché, it is a word of conscience:Don't buy old and dilapidated small, don't buy any new suburbs, don't touch apartment office buildings, don't buy pseudo-pension plates, pseudo-sea view houses, ......