Hello everyone, I'm the head of the hall.
On the last day of 2023, what should you talk about?The hall master has been thinking about this for the past few days. Yesterday I was chatting with a friend, and he gave a very interesting example: said that there were ten birds in the tree, and the hunter raised his gun and killed one bird, so how many birds are left in the tree now?It's a brainteaser question. The straight man immediately thought that there were nine left, but after the gunshots rang out, there would be birds in the treesThis example is actually very suitable to describe the current situation. I would like to talk to you about the two major reservoirs of China's economy: ** and the property market. Let's take a look first**. From the perspective of the global market, the United States, Japan, France, Germany, India and other markets have all hit a record high this year. The Nasdaq rose more than 40% for the year, Japan** performed the best performance in a decade, and India** also set an eight-year winning streak. As for the big A, looking back on the whole year of this year, the opening price of the first trading day of 2023 is 3087At 51 points, the ** price of the last trading day is 297493 points, ** 11258 points, down 37%。
People who can't speak will say that the excitement is all theirs, and the big A has nothing. Those who can speak will say that they have worked hard, and they can only say that they are at the bottom. In August, when the four arrows were fired and the stamp duty was halved, many people saw the dawn of victory and gritted their teeth and entered the market. Later, when everyone knew about it, they would send a sentence: A real warrior!That's what my friend told the hall master. Although the overall performance is unsatisfactory, it is true that investors make money per capita. "In the first half of the year, the per capita profit of A-share shareholders was 3910,000 yuan" Weibo hot search, scared me to open my account immediately, if I hadn't seen the familiar "green leeks", I thought I had really made money!
Since the beginning of this year, competing for IPO, and then shareholders, various cash-out methods have continued to appear, compared with the outflow of foreign capital, everyone is more afraid of the operation of domestic capital. While shouting: Don't run, fellow, run the fastest yourself. There are too many fools, no matter how good the news is, the fellows are already frightened birds. Let's take a look at the property market. According to the statistics of China Real Estate News, this year, more than 200 provinces and cities (counties) across the country optimized and adjusted their real estate policies, and introduced more than 600 control measures. In the first 11 months of 2023, the data is different from what was originally expected. In terms of transaction area, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in the key 100 cities decreased by about 5% year-on-year, and the absolute scale was the lowest level in the same period since 2016. 
In terms of investment, in the first 11 months, the national real estate development investment was 104045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%, of which residential investment was 7,885.2 billion yuan, down 90%。
In terms of second-hand housing, the 14 key cities monitored in the first 11 months saw a month-on-month increase in the number of second-hand residential listings18%, a year-on-year increase of **9618%。And in terms of enterprises, the sales of TOP100 real estate companies fell by 14 year-on-year7%。To tell the truth, in 2023, real estate, once a pillar industry of the national economy, has become the main "drag" of economic recovery. In the past, the ** and the house buyer, at the party, these two people were talking and laughing, inadvertently revealing how much they earned. Of course, as soon as these two people met, they said to each other, ** looked down on those who bought houses, and those who bought houses felt that their brains were soaked in water before they went**. Now, the two of them are sitting silently in the corner, their eyes are paired, silent, raising their wine glasses, and a glass of silence: they are both fallen people at the end of the world, why should they have known each other when they meet!I don't talk about the income, and I don't talk about how much the house has risen, I think that as long as I don't lose the principal, it must be God who is favoring me. At this moment, the two people who once looked down on each other got a trace of comfort from each other. If the ** and the property market are not satisfactory, then this year's car market is extremely hot, focusing on a contrarian ** roll out of the sky. In terms of overall sales, McKinsey China expects a full-year growth of 5%, which is not only the best year in 2020 since the pandemic three years ago, but also surpasses the level of 2019. From the point of view of the ** range, there are signs of polarization. On the one hand, the number of high-end models with more than 200,000 yuan has increased significantly, from 25% to 28% in the past three years. On the other hand, the proportion of entry-level models with less than 100,000 units has dropped from 30% to 25%. 
No wonder not long ago, Lei Jun said at the Xiaomi car su7 technology conference: 90,009 is impossible, and people who say 140,009 don't say it anymore. After all, Lei Jun said that a Ningwang battery will cost hundreds of thousands. It seems that 90,000 9 and Xiaomi cars can't make friends, and more than 200,000 may be okay. From the establishment of the project to the release, Xiaomi Auto took 1003 days. Nearly three years later, although in the past three years, only the auto market has grown against the trend in major industries. But ah, Mr. Lei, in three years, the rice noodles have only become old, not rich. The second feature of the car market: the crazy shuffle under the war. At the beginning, in January 2023, the new energy national subsidy policy, which has lasted for 13 years, was officially withdrawn. As a result, costs have risen and a wave of price increases has been sparked. But soon, Tesla took the lead in cutting prices, so it opened the era of "involution" of new energy vehicles, and many car companies such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, and BYD followed up. Although in July, 16 car companies engaged in a no-price reduction alliance, but it was quickly scrapped. In short, the ** war has been fought until now. This can also be seen from another angle, lithium carbonate, one of the main raw materials for new energy vehicle batteries, is diametrically opposed to the crazy ** trend in 2022, and on the whole, 2023 will be all the way down. 
The China Automobile Dealers Association, for 11 consecutive months, has conducted an investigation and found that the auto industry is reshuffling rapidly. On the one hand, traditional car companies such as Guangqi Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, Volkswagen, and General Motors Ford, as well as new car-making forces such as NIO, have all carried out large-scale layoffs this year, and some of them have laid off more than one round of employees this year, and the proportion of layoffs is more than 15% each time. Especially for traditional joint venture car companies, life is becoming more and more difficult. Guangqi Honda, a joint venture between Honda and China's Guangzhou Automobile Company in 1998, laid off employees for the first time in 25 years since it entered China. Mitsubishi Motors also announced that it would stop local car production in China, give GAC Mitsubishi Motors equity to GAC Group, and fully withdraw from the Chinese market. On the other hand, the era of joint car companies has also come. Changan, Geely and NIO signed a strategic cooperation agreement on battery swapping, Toyota and BYD cooperated, Mercedes-Benz BMW established a joint venture, and the marriage between Xpeng and Volkswagen shocked the entire auto market. Some people say that it is now new energy vehicles that have forced oil trucks into a corner. This is true, in 2023, more than a dozen car companies will go bankrupt, many 4S groups will run away, and more than 2,000 4S stores will withdraw from the network....The big waves and the sand have kept up with the new pace have already made new changes. New energy vehicles, which are expected to be in 2024, are still in the bonus period, although they are still volumes. There are many young people who are paying attention to the hall master, and on the last day of 2023, the hall master highly recommends that you pay attention to this industry. Among other things, this industry is one that is rarely supported by both China and the United States. Although some people have previously ridiculed that China's new energy is actually cultivated by subsidies, in fact, the United States is also the same. Biden defeated the king of understanding, and after taking office, he listed environmental protection as one of his top priorities, and vigorously developing new energy vehicles is also one of his key tasks. I don't know if you have noticed that since the conflict between China and the United States, the blockade of China has been unprecedentedly strong, especially the dispute over semiconductors. However, in the field of new energy vehicles, the United States has allowed Tesla to build a factory in Shanghai, which actually reveals quite important information. In the final analysis, this is the tacit assumption that China and the United States want to reshape the global auto market. In the past, Japan was the world's largest exporter of automobiles in the era of traditional automobiles, and German automobiles were also the largest in the global market. The characteristics of the automobile industry are that the industrial chain is long, there are many related industries, high added value, wide radiation, and significant social and economic benefits, which are easy to promote the growth of the national economy. Germany, for example, accounts for 24% of the country's total industrial output. With such a market value here, it's hard not to be excited. In the era of traditional oil trucks, China could only watch them eat meat, and they could only drink soup, although the United States did not drink soup, but it was not the person who ate the best piece of meat, and it was not a taste in his heart. Therefore, China and the United States have been vigorously supporting the development of new energy vehicles in recent years, which is a rare market recognized by both countries, because they want to regain the market from Japan, Germany and other traditional automobile countries, and make themselves the dominant players in the global automobile market. Therefore, in the next period of time, there are very opportunities, and it is not difficult for young people to pour into this track and get a little meat to eat, especially to enter a factory like Tesla, which is already completely beating other industries. Of course, the owner here is not blowing Tesla, but just wants to say that the treatment given by others, the remuneration for overtime, and the social security provident fund paid are actually worth learning from our domestic enterprises. The hall master knows that some people who now have capital and resources have quite a lot of opinions about young people lying down. What young people should not only focus on money, but also thank the company, and pay the company for training. What salary has not risen is because I don't work hard enough and I don't work hard enough. In fact, if you want to say that young people don't have hard work and don't want to be motivated, the hall master is the first to refuse. Just ask, who doesn't want to make some achievements in their 20s. In this way, we can live up to our time. But these decision-makers who have the resources of society, you have to really treat young people as human beings. With a monthly salary of 2,000, I have to treat the company as my home, regardless of returns, as long as I pay!With such treatment, you still blame the good guys!The monthly salary is 5,000, there is no overtime pay for overtime, and I have to go back to the boss's WeChat at any time on weekends and holidays, which is even more uncomfortable than serving my father. The monthly salary is 10,000 yuan, and the boss said that he came back from vacation to work overtime, and he was not convinced, but his body still went back honestly. With a monthly salary of 30,000 yuan, my boss asked me to work overtime, which was as natural as breathing. The monthly salary is 50,000 yuan, the boss is my family, and I can stay in the company 24 hours a day. In short, don't always want the horse to run and not give the horse grass to eat. Finally, I would like to talk to you about the "hope" of 2023, which has passed. 2024 is coming. We are now in a time of great social transformation. From agricultural civilization to industrial civilization, from industrial civilization to modern civilization. Every transformation has to go through great pain. People who buy unfinished buildings, this year's Chinese New Year's Eve, may still be working in the company, looking forward to living in the house they bought with their emptied funds in the new year. Those who are unemployed may be recent college graduates, young people who have just been laid off, or middle-aged people who are old and young. Some people choose to leave and return to their hometowns. Some people choose to stay, or deliver takeaways, or work as waiters to support the present. There are also those who open recruitment software every day, submit hundreds of resumes, and expect the phone screen to light up with a pop-up window, just for an interview opportunity. Their eyes are full of three words: unwilling. Each individual's experience is vivid because it is concrete, real because it is trivial, and touching because it is unique. As witnesses of this special history, you and I exist lonely and powerful in the turbulent and noisy tide of industrialization. Despair and piety are the contradictions engraved on every face. No matter what happened in 2023, the good and the bad are over. Learn to say to yourself: You're really, doing a great job. Instead of saying to yourself with a frustrated face: I'm sorry to disappoint you. A generation has a generational choice, and a generation has a generational problem to overcome. After all, no winter is insurmountable. Is it to see hope first before you can go on, or to go down first to see hope. It's a chicken-and-egg question or egg-and-egg problem. The hall master wants to tell you, hope, not far away. You are hope. Well, see you in 2023!See you in 2024!
Turn the page in 2023