Kunpeng Project
The renminbi has broken through an important threshold in the short term, and as of the recent high, it has risen by more than 2,400 points, which objectively means that the United States is raising interest rates as a spearThe currency war against the world finally ended with its own defeat.
For this harvest, the United States has been preparing for a full 10 years, and it has been going smoothly at the beginning, but it has become more and more ineffective in the later stage, and now it is completely impossible to cut.
What are the manifestations of inaction?
In the past, most of the currency wars from raising interest rates ended with the collapse of the currency exchange rates of these countries and the return of dollar capital to the cheap assets of these countries, but this time, the target of the United States is China.
The ending is obvious, the United States lost, the buying and buying of American capital did not appear, but there was a performance of not being able to play scolding the mother, originally people stayed to cut leeks, but they didn't think about it, but you cut leeks.
Due to the appreciation of the renminbi, it has reversed, not the dollar to buy and buy, but the renminbi to buy and buy, the pace of internationalization of the renminbi has accelerated, and the infrastructure yuan and oil yuan have taken shape.
However, in addition to the appreciation of the renminbi, other currencies still seem to be chattering, such as the yen, which has depreciated by more than 50% in recent years, and the yen has almost collapsedJapan's economy is also likely to follow in the footsteps of the yen.
In fact, as early as 2008, after the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States began to plan the next round of harvesting, and began to make rounds of loose monetary policy, that is, QE.
QE is the first printing money in the United States, buying bonds to commercial banks, and banks will lend money to enterprises and individuals who lack money, especially foreign-funded enterprises.
The United States has carried out three rounds of official quantitative easing and a large release of water during the epidemic.
The first round of QE: from March 2009 to March 2010, the size was about 1,725 trillion US dollars, mainly buying MBS, Treasury bonds and AgencyMBS.
Second QE: November 2010 to June 2011, with a size of about US$600 billion, mainly long-term bonds.
Round 3 QE: Implemented since September 2012, purchase of AgencyMBS, $40 billion per month, no deadline, but with an exit mechanism.
Overall, the QE policy released a total of about 2The $25 trillion capital coming into the market has had a significant impact on both the global economy and capital markets.
First, the massive amount of money released by QE has boosted economic growthstimulated market demandIt reduces the cost of corporate financing, thereby stimulating the investment and expansion of enterprises.
Second, QE also raises the disposable income of U.S. residents, boosted consumer confidence and stimulated consumer demandBut it has imported inflation into other countries, because it is always the banks of the United States that get the money first.
QE policies can lead to inflation and asset bubbles, which can exacerbate instability in financial markets, and also trigger balance-of-payments problems, such as dollar depreciation and capital outflows.
As the United States began to enter the interest rate hike cycle in 2015, a new round of currency war has actually begun, but then it feels that other countries are not terminally ill, and interest rate hikes may not hurt other countries, but will make previous preparations fall short.
This was followed by a more accommodative monetary war policy, which was followed by low interest rates in an attempt to get the dollar flowing to every corner of the world, including China, which peaked during the pandemic in 2020, typified by handing out money to the people.
Then the United States felt that the time was ripe and began a new round of interest rate hike cycle, this round of interest rate hikes, so that the RMB exchange rate increased from 63 fell 73。
U.S. dollar interest rates continue to rise, and the 6-month U.S. Treasury interest rate even exceeds 55, and the yen is even more exaggerated, falling by more than 50%, and the euro also went from a high of 16 fell to 09, more than the yen fell, and although the renminbi is also falling, the magnitude is significantly smaller.
It seems that the United States has won this currency war, but after entering 2023, the interest rate hike in the United States seems to be ineffective, and the dollar index has not risen, but has begun to fall.
Currencies, including the renminbi, have actually remained high during the Fed's interest rate hikes**, which is dangerous, indicating that the US interest rate hike has no effect.
On the contrary, inflation in the United States has started again, from 30, and again ** to 37, this will continue to increase, and it will not have the effect of curbing inflation, but will begin to hurt the US economy first.
The latest issue of the U.S. manufacturing PMI began to fall below the boom and bust line again, and the U.S. bonds, which had just stabilized, began again, and consumers became less and less confident in the future of the United States.
The Fed's goal of raising interest rates is to keep inflation in the United States within 2%, but it is clear that this will not be achieved, so now the outside world has expected the Fed to stop raising interest rates, and the dollar has fallen even more.
Currently, the terminal rate in the United States has reached 55%, but the US dollar is still in **, as the other currencies in the US dollar, except for the Japanese yen, are in **,But the yen is still hovering around 150 for the bailout.
Although the financial war launched by the United States has caused bankruptcy in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and other countries, as well as foreign exchange crises and semi-bankruptcies in Pakistan, Argentina and other countries, Japan, as a developed country, has not performed satisfactorily this time
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