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*: Beijing Business Daily.
The reduction of deposit interest by banks has an effect on improving the reasonable standard of price-earnings ratio, and at the same time, it is conducive to squeezing out deposits and flowing into the capital market, which is of great benefit to improving the overall valuation of A-shares, and the increase in profits of bank stocks also has a supporting effect on the stock prices of bank stocks.
In the past, it was said that the P/E ratio should be 20 times, but early investors didn't know why it should be 20 timesLater, everyone said that the P/E ratio should be 30 times, and investors didn't understand how 20 times became 30 times. Now the average P/E ratio is between 10 times and 20 times, and it is said that the stock price is seriously undervalued, and investors may not understand why it is seriously undervalued, in fact, these reasonable P/E ratio fluctuations are related to the change in the market's risk-free rate of return.
The earliest bank interest rate is 5%, investors deposit money in the bank, get back 5% interest every year, and then just get back the principal after 20 years, if the investor holds ** is also 5% per year, but also 20 years to get back the principal, then the investment ** and investment risk-free savings income is the same, which is in line with the principle of profit averaging, so at that time it was reasonable to say that the price-earnings ratio of 20 times, and then the bank interest rate fell, down to 3Around 3%, at this time, the deposit bank can get back the principal in 30 years, so the reasonable price-earnings ratio has also become 30 times.
Later, the bank rate continued to fall and is now around 15%-2%, so a lot of the best reasonable P/E ratio can also support 50 times, if you consider the yield of treasury bonds and wealth management products, then there is no problem with 30 times the P/E ratio, so at this time the P/E ratio level of more than ten times to 20 times is seriously underestimated.
Now that banks continue to reduce deposit rates, it will further support the upward trend of a reasonable price-earnings ratio, and the pressure on the return of the valuation of A-shares will be more obvious, and the CSI 300 index will strengthen significantly on December 25, which is inseparable from the valuation promotion, because these 300 companies can be said to be the most reasonable valuation of A-shares, so their stock price recovery momentum is also the strongest.
In addition, lower interest rates on bank deposits can also promote capital inflows into the capital market. After all, the decline in deposit interest rates will inevitably lead to some depositors being reluctant to continue to deposit funds, but choosing to buy ** or other financial products, and eventually a part of the funds will flow into the A** field, which will also support the A** field.
In addition, the profit of the bank is mainly the interest rate difference between deposits and loans, and now the bank has reduced the deposit interest rate, but has not lowered the loan interest rate, which indicates that the profit margin of bank stocks will increase in the future, and the earnings per share will naturally increase. The profits of bank stocks will increase, the reasonable price-earnings ratio level will also rise, and the stock prices of bank stocks will naturally increase, which is of great significance to the entire market. As the mainstay of bank stocks, if the stock price strengthens, it will inevitably lead the index to strengthen, which is also very important for restoring investors' confidence in holding shares.
Of course, bank deposit rates are not the only measure of risk-free rate of return, but investors need to understand the cause and effect. Investors should not always focus on the Shanghai Composite Index, but also pay attention to the CSI 300 Index, which is currently the most active index in the A** field, which has taken the lead in reflecting the power of valuation repair.
Beijing Business Daily commentator Zhou Kejing.