(About the author: National Excellent Teacher, Distinguished Expert of "College Admissions", focusing on the college entrance examination for 20 years, and publishing more than 20 monographs).
Nowadays, there is a strange picture in the field of higher education:
On the one hand, there is a student crisis, and on the other hand, there is a crazy expansion of colleges and universities.
It's like standing on a sinking ship, not thinking about how to save yourself, but continuing to load the ship.
One can't help but wonder what these universities are up to
What is even more worrying is that behind this crazy expansion of enrollment is the reality of the accelerated spread of university closures.
Let's take a look at the world first
According to the National Student Information Center, undergraduate enrollment in the spring of 2022 in the United States decreased by 66 percent from a year earlier20,000 people. The number of university closures in the United States has nearly tripled compared to the past decade, including some of the century-old ones.
In March of this year, Iowa Wesleyan University, which has a history of 181 years, announced that it would officially close and cease operations by the end of the current academic year.
In July, the president of the University of Wisconsin announced the closure of three campuses of 13 community colleges.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japan's low fertility rate may lead to the closure of more than 200 universities due to a lack of studentsIn the first half of this year, Japan's Keizumen Women's Gakuen University, Kobe Starfish Women's Gakuin University, Sophia University, and Ryukoku University's junior college divisions have all publicly announced that they will stop recruiting students.
South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world, and in the past five years, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination has been lower than the number of university enrollments, and in 2023, the number of applicants for the program has surged to 26. South Korea's Seohae University has applied to cease its operation, and East Busan University has also entered the process of cessation. South Korean media**, in the next two years, at least 55 local universities will face the crisis of closure.
Since 2022, the number of first-year students in colleges and universities in Taiwan has surpassed that of high schools. As early as 2019, "going to college with zero points" became a reality, and this year many colleges and universities have announced their withdrawal. Taiwan's trade unions estimate that about 40 universities will leave the market in the next eight years.
The wave of university closures in these countries and regions has undoubtedly sounded the alarm for us.
The wave of university closures is happening around the world, which is a wake-up call.
In 2022, the number of births in China fell below the 10 million mark, with only 9.56 million, and since 2017, this number has declined at an average annual rate of more than 1 million, which is worrying. This trend indicates that the reduction of the number of students will be inevitable in the future, and the construction of new campuses of colleges and universities in China is in full swing.
New campuses have sprung up on this land, but on the other hand, many colleges and universities are struggling to complete their enrollment plans.
Looking back on the past ten years, vocational colleges have long faced a student crisis, most of the country's junior colleges have failed to complete the enrollment plan in the annual college entrance examination, and some private colleges have even admitted less than 50% of the enrollment plan. In order to recruit enough students, the admission score has dropped again and again.
Taking the 2023 college entrance examination as an example, there are more than 20 provinces across the country where the control line of the college is below 200 points. Shanxi's admission score is as low as 130 points, and Beijing's admission score is only 120 points. This means that candidates in most regions can enter the university with a total score of more than 100 points.
You may ask, what is the concept of more than 100 points?The answer is: even if you have never stepped into high school, as long as you take the college entrance examination, you may get such a score. It can be seen that in today's society, it seems that it is extremely difficult to fail to get into a university.
In recent years, this has gradually spread to undergraduate institutions. Some private colleges and universities have failed to complete their enrollment plans for several consecutive years. In the 2023 college entrance examination, 73% of the enrollment plan of an undergraduate university in Guangxi has not been completed, and the vacancy is as high as 3,397. Some public colleges and universities have also had to lower their admission ranks, and even need to recruit volunteers to barely fill up students. In 2023, many double-first-class key universities will also join the ranks of reduced score admissions.
At the same time, the undergraduate batch score control line in various places has also dropped again and again, and some are even "cliff-like" This year, the undergraduate control line in many provinces across the country has just exceeded 300 points, and the lowest is only 287 points. You must know that the total score of the college entrance examination is 750 points.
There are multiple reasons behind this phenomenon, but the main reason is undoubtedly the continuous expansion and expansion of universities around the world. 
The emergence of the phenomenon of declining birthrate is undoubtedly behind the crisis of students in the field of education.
From the data released by the Ministry of Education, we can get a glimpse: in 1996, there were as many as 64 primary schools in the country60,000 schools, with more than 25.25 million children enrolled in the schoolBy 2008, however, the number of primary schools had plummeted to 3010,000 schools, and the number of students enrolled has shrunk to more than 16.96 million.
Nowadays, more and more people choose to "not marry" and "have no children", and this trend of declining birthrate is gradually exacerbating the student crisis at all levels and types of schools. The student crisis in primary schools is approaching that of middle schools, just as wolves are approaching sheep, and the next colleges and universities will also face the fate of reshuffling due to the fierce competition for students.
In the face of the spread of the student crisis, the old professor believes that colleges and universities must adjust their strategies, control the scale of enrollment, and take the road of connotation development. It's like a ship encountering storms and waves in the sea, and needs to adjust its course and shift its focus from the pursuit of scale to improving its own quality. In this big wave, some colleges and universities may be struggling or even withdraw from the stage of history, while others may be nirvana and revitalized.
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