The U.S. debt is about to hit the "debt ceiling" again, and the two parties have not yet reached an agreement to raise the "debt ceiling".Saudi Arabia borrowed RMB and turned to China to invest in factoriesSwitzerland is constantly shipping to China**;Central banks have increased their holdings in search of a "safe haven", will the debt crisis affect the global credit of the US dollar?Will it hit the dollar's influence?
Debt crisis or impact on "dollar hegemony"?
According to market sources,The winning interest rate for the three-month Treasury note is 51%, exceeding the highest level in January 2021;The yield on three-month Treasury bonds exceeded 5%, a record since 2001.
In contrast, the auction of US Treasury bonds with a maturity of three months has been weak in financial marketsIt shows that the market is concerned about the rising expectation of a default on US bonds.
Previously, the US 1-year credit default swap spread had already surpassed the level of the Obama era in 2011, indicating that financial markets had higher expectations for a US bond default than in 2011.
And in 2013, there was a bipartisan agreement in the United States to "raise the debt ceiling", which led to the "shutdown" of federal institutions.
Now, the U.S. debt ceiling is back in place, and unlike in 2013, this time the U.S. debt default is facing a global "de-dollarization wave".
Yellen and many investment bank economists in the United States believe thatIf the U.S. debt falls into a short-term default, it will affect the global credit and currency status of the dollar, and even hit the financial tradition of U.S. bonds as a safe-haven asset
ButThe two parties in the United States have still been slow to reach an agreement on whether to raise the debt ceiling and how to raise it
According to Bloomberg,On April 19, local time in the United States, the two parties in the United States once again disputed whether to raise the "debt ceiling".
U.S. House Speaker McCarthy proposed a willThe U.S. debt ceiling was raised by another 1$5 trillionand advocated for fiscal plans to cut federal spending.
In the program,McCarthy advocated cutting hundreds of billions of dollars in tax breaks for new energy vehicles in the United States, deregulating energy projects, and other projects.
Eventually, it is expected to reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit by 4 percent over the next 10 years$5 trillion
The bill, titled "Limit, S**e, Grow Act" in 2023, will be voted on in the U.S. House of Representatives next week.
However, this bill has just been introducedIt was "shelled"., that McCarthy proposed the "debt ceiling lifting bill".Everywhere is aimed at Biden's "political achievements".
Frank Paron, a senior member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, accused McCarthy and his party of creating a debt crisis to justify these brutal plans.
White House press secretary Jean Pierre also said that the White House accused McCarthy of "playing" congressional powers, hoping that Congress would unconditionally raise the debt ceiling as before
In fact,Raising the U.S. debt ceiling has become almost routine since 1939。The only difference is what kind of compromise the two parties will reach on "raising the debt ceiling".
According to official U.S. data, U.S. treasury held about $108 billion in cash after the U.S. tax filing deadline on April 18, 2023.
But according to historical experience, whenWhen the U.S. Treasury holds more than $200 billion in cash after the tax date, it indicates that the U.S. economy is strong;A little less than $150 billion indicates that the U.S. economy is weak
With just over $100 billion in cash in its treasury, there are concerns that the U.S. could face a short-term default before the next tax day on June 15.
According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, the cash in the US treasury will bottom out in mid-August at most, so it will face the problem of the "US debt ceiling" peaking at least June
Faced with the long-delayed U.S. debt problem,Central banks are looking for "safe havens" and are buying in large quantities to prepare for a rainy day.
Switzerland to China**
According to Swiss customs data, it is saidAs of April 2023, China's imports from Switzerland have increased by 69%.
According to reports, nearly 70% of the world's ** is refined in Switzerland, so Switzerland has been the world's largest ** refining center and transshipment center.
WhileChina has always been the most important buyer for Switzerland
In 2021, China imported more than 300 tonnes of ** from Switzerland, and in 2022, more than 500 tonnes of ** were sent from Switzerland to China.
In the first quarter of 2023, Switzerland shipped more than 100 tonnes of ** to China
It can be seen that the central bank foresees the coming of the risk of the US debt ceiling peaking, and continues to increase ** reserves.
If the previous large-scale purchase by the central bank was to adjust reserve assets and support the internationalization of the renminbi in advance.
Then, at the moment when the U.S. debt is approaching the ceiling, the central bank has repeatedly sold U.S. bonds and purchased **, which foresees the role of ** as an asset "ballast stone" at a time when the risk of US dollar assets is rising.
Previously, the renminbi and the central banks of Brazil, Argentina and other countries carried out bilateral currency settlements, even to ensure the safety of the renminbi's overseas assets, but also as a means to avoid the risk of the dollar.
And central banks don't stop there.
On April 17, 2023, Gal Luft, deputy director of global security analytics, published a report on "Global Central Bank Digital Currencies".
The report points out that the development of central bank digital currencies in various countries is likely to create a global digital currency payment system parallel to the US dollar payment system by using ** as a reserve.
In this system, ** as an asset reserve, the digital currency of each country will represent the currency of each country, bypassing the US dollar for separate settlement.
Iran and countries such as Switzerland and France have already begun to try.
And in 2022, the circulation of China's digital yuan has reached 136100 million yuan.
From another point of view, the central bank has realized that if the default of U.S. bonds has an impact on the credit of the dollar, then the monetary function of ** is likely to return in the future.
At that time,Behind the renminbi, in addition to strong industrial production capacity, it also needs enough to deal with the turmoil in the country's financial markets when the dollar's credit is shaken.
Because, when countries choose a "safe haven" in order to avoid the risk of the dollar, they will inevitably look to the RMB.
In fact, Saudi Arabia, as an energy "power" in the Middle East, has already done so.
Saudi Arabia turned to RMB borrowing and investment
After China's mediation to achieve reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Middle Eastern countries have turned their attention to the East.
Not only has Iran accepted China's large-scale investment in local infrastructure, but Saudi Arabia has also signed a loan agreement with China to lend RMB to achieve the best settlement between the two countries.
According to reportsSaudi Arabia has reached an agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China to sign a loan agreement in yuan。Through this loan, Saudi Arabia will cooperate with China to provide financial support for the settlement between the two countries.
Among them is the Saudi Arabian-invested refinery in Liaoning.
However, there are also people who believe in the comments of this newsSaudi Arabia borrowed money from China and invested in China, did China suffer a loss?
In fact, long ago, China and Saudi Arabia signed a large order involving both parties in various fields, with a total amount of more than 200 billion.
As a major industrial producer, China has a huge energy market, while Saudi Arabia, as a "Middle Eastern tycoon", also has a huge demand for industrial products, and the two sides "hit it off".
There is no need to worry about Chinese loans being "prostituted" for nothing.
Because the best between China and Saudi Arabia is the best product to energy, China has a unique advantage as a major industrial producer, even if it is a joint venture between China and Saudi Arabia, the industrial finished products made of oil will eventually be sold to Saudi Arabia.
WhileWith a large amount of energy stored underground in Saudi Arabia, will Saudi Arabia still worry about "not repaying its debts"?
Previously, the central bank continued to reserve **, so that the renminbi continued to strengthen its resistance to market risks, in order to ensure that the renminbi has a strong currency value in international settlements.
Saudi Arabia's choice to lend RMB to fund the settlement between China and Saudi Arabia also demonstrates the progress of RMB in cross-border settlement and investment.
At the same time, the digital currency settlement system between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the cross-border payment system "ABER", is also quietly being implemented.
In this system, Saudi Arabia and the UAE try to bypass the dollar and settle transactions.
Coincidentally, Saudi Arabia intends to directly convert part of the revenue from oil sales to China directly into **.
With the continuous growth of the scale of global central bank digital currency, the combination of ** and digital currency may become another idea of international ** settlement in the future.
Suppose one day, as Gal Luft wrote,Once the energy of Middle Eastern countries, the products of East Asia, the ** of central banks and the global central bank digital currency really form a new settlement system parallel to the dollar, then where will the dollar go?
What is certain is that with the continuous development of the regional economy, the trend of multipolarization of currencies is becoming more and more obvious.
At one time, the "Dollar Settlement Oil Agreement" signed between Saudi Arabia and the United States was the cornerstone of the "petrodollar".