2023 is coming to an end.
This year is a year of communication and conflict. The China-US summit in San Francisco injects certainty and stability into a turbulent and changing worldThe frequent high-level interactions between China and the EU have pointed out the direction and injected new momentum into bilateral economic and trade cooperationThe historic resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has sparked a wave of reconciliation and dialogue in the Middle EastThe resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has displaced about three-quarters of the population of the Gaza Strip in the fighting.
This year is a year of harvest and risk. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) celebrates its 10th anniversary, and connectivity and green development have yielded fruitful resultsThe U.S. has made unexpected progress in the fight against inflation, with an improved economic outlook and a slower pace of Fed rate hikesThe frequent strikes highlight the deeper socio-economic contradictions that are brewingThe banking crisis in the United States and Europe has triggered widespread concerns about economic and financial risks in the market.
2024 is on the horizon.
When we look to the future, a habitual way of thinking is that we always want to know what will happen, how to anticipate in advance, what changes will be brought about, and how we should respond. This stems from an extreme aversion to uncertainty and is part of inescapable human nature.
But thinking about future changes is doomed to be futile - the global economic situation is complex and severe, geopolitical conflicts are tense, and AI technology is accelerating iterative ......In today's world, the only certainty is that there is uncertainty.
However, this does not mean that we are completely at a loss when we look to the future - we can look at the future from a different perspective, anchor those things that will happen, and the turbulent world will have fixed coordinates.
In 2024, we will usher in the expansion of BRICS, the election of the United States and Russia, and the Paris Olympic GamesIn 2024, we may have to deal with a falling dollar, the failure of private Mars exploration, and worse climate change. Together, these uncertainties and uncertainties will create a new year in which risks and opportunities coexist.
We are also honored to remind you that in 2024, International Finance News will officially enter the year of its establishment. Over the past 30 years, "International Finance News" has met, met and accompanied you through one article after another. In the next 30 years, I hope we will continue to move forward hand in hand.
To look back on the past is to reflect seriously in certainty;Looking to the future, it is to hedge uncertainty with certainty, so that we can be more calm in the face of uncertainty in the future, so that we can take smart risks in this era full of uncertainties.
Global Macro. The economy is growing slowly
The world has recovered significantly from the pandemic, but at present, multiple global crises are superimposed, and mankind is facing unprecedented challenges. The global economy will slow down in 2024.
The International Monetary Fund** lowered its global growth forecast for next year to 29%；The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) believes that global economic growth will slow to 27%, which means that 2024 could be the year of the lowest global economic growth since 2020.
Headline inflation has slowed
In 2023, the headline inflation rate in almost all economies has declined due to tighter monetary policy and international commodities***. In 2024, the inflation trend will ease further.
In its October World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that headline inflation will fall to 58%；Core inflation (excluding food and energy**) will fall at a slower pace than headline inflation, falling to 45%。Inflation in most countries is unlikely to return to target before 2025.
Growth is sluggish
This year, the world** is shrinking, and next year is still not optimistic.
The WTO expects global merchandise growth rates of 33%。
UNCTAD believes that there is still "a high degree of uncertainty and overall pessimism" about the global outlook for 2024. "While some economic indicators suggest an improvement, persistent geopolitical tensions, high debt levels and generally fragile economic conditions are expected to negatively impact the global landscape," the report reads. ”
Monetary policy shift
2024 will be a year in which monetary conditions will turn from tight to loose, and central banks in Europe and the United States will gradually shift from raising interest rates to cutting interest rates.
The central factor that will determine the direction of global finance in 2024 is the Federal Reserve. At its last meeting of 2023, the Fed said it would cut interest rates three times in 2024. Based on the CME Fed Watch tool, the market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June 2024 and up to 100 basis points by the end of 2024.
Current political hotspots. The BRICS family has expanded
On August 24, local time, the special press conference of the 15th BRICS Summit announced that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Iran, and Ethiopia were invited to officially become members of the BRICS family, and their membership will take effect from January 1, 2024. The BRICS expansion process fully demonstrates the vitality and attractiveness of the BRICS cooperation mechanism and its strategic value in international affairs.
Xinhua.
The 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France
The year 2024 marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, France was the first major Western country to formally establish diplomatic relations with China, and in 1964, China and France formally established diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level. In the past bilateral interactions, China and France have created a number of "firsts" with far-reaching influence, which have not only promoted the healthy development of China-EU relations, but also provided a reference for exchanges between countries around the world.
The G20 summit was held in Brazil
On December 1, 2023, Brazil officially assumed the rotating presidency of the Group of Twenty (G20). The G20 Leaders' Summit will be held in Rio de Janeiro on November 18-19, 2024.
Brazil's G20 presidency has made the reduction of inequalities its core concern, prioritized social inclusion and the eradication of hunger and poverty, promoted sustainable development at the economic, social and environmental dimensions and the energy transition, and promoted the reform of global governance institutions and multilateral development banks, including the United Nations.
Visa arrangements between China and New Zealand have been implemented
Singapore's Prime Minister's Office said in a document on December 7 that Singapore and China will implement a 30-day visa waiver agreement. The two countries are currently discussing the details, and the relevant policies are planned to be introduced in early 2024.
Singapore is one of the most popular destinations for Chinese outbound tourism, and the mutual visa exemption policy will have a positive impact on the tourism industry of China and Singapore.
China's spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that China and Singapore look forward to the early entry into force of the relevant arrangement.
The European Union has introduced a new immigration system
The EU's new entry and exit system (EES) will be operational in autumn 2024. Previously, the launch of the system was repeatedly postponed due to the need for EU countries to integrate their border systems with the EES** database.
It is reported that the EES aims to strengthen the security and protection of EU borders, reduce illegal immigration, and improve the systematic identification of overstayers, which will be applied to citizens of third countries, including British citizens.
The Paris Olympics were held
The Paris Olympics will be held from July 26 to August 11, 2024. Four new sports were added to the Games: breakdancing, skateboarding, rock climbing and surfing.
Compared to the Tokyo Olympics, the Paris 2024 Olympics will be further scaled down. The number of athletes participating in the competition has been reduced from 11,092 at the Tokyo Olympics to 10,500. In terms of the total number of events, the Tokyo Olympics will have 339 events, and the Paris Olympics will have 10 fewer events.
Relocation of the capital of Indonesia
According to the plan, Indonesia** will start the capital relocation plan in 2024, moving the capital to East Kalimantan province. The plan was released in 2019 by Indonesia's ** Joko Widodo.
With a history of nearly 500 years, Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is the political and economic center of the country. However, the region is also plagued by land subsidence and traffic congestion, and policymakers hope that the relocation will boost the development of Indonesia's central and eastern regions and reduce the impact of natural disasters on the city.
The year of the election. Pakistan
Elections for Pakistan's next National Assembly (lower house of parliament) will be held in early 2024.
The last National Assembly of Pakistan was sworn in on 13 August 2018 for a five-year term. On August 9, 2023, Alvi of Pakistan** approved the dissolution of the National Assembly, marking the official dissolution of the previous **.
On December 15, local time, according to the order of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, the Election Commission of Pakistan announced the national timetable, which will be held on February 8, 2024.
Indonesia
Elections in Indonesia** will be held on February 14, 2024. Indonesia has about 2With a population of 800 million, more than 200 million voters will vote for the next term on the same day**.
Indonesia's Election Commission (KPU) held a plenary meeting in November to formalize the three pairs of candidates and deputy candidates for 2024, and Indonesia has already shown a three-legged trend in 2024.
Russia
The Council of the Russian Federation (the upper house of parliament) adopted a resolution on December 7 confirming that elections to the Russian Federation will be held on March 17, 2024.
Russia's Putin has announced his candidacy for the election. Putin's term as Russia's incumbent will end on May 7, 2024. Under Russia's constitution, Putin can seek a second term until 2036 after this term. Putin is 71 years old, and if he can win in March 2024, it will be his fifth time as Russia.
Europe
Elections to the European Parliament will be held between the 27 member states of the European Union from 6 to 9 June 2024. Voters will elect more than 700 MPs for a five-year term in the 10th European Parliament.
This will be the first European Parliament election after Brexit and is seen as a "weather vane" for European politics. There is widespread fear that far-right nationalist, anti-immigrant parties will make greater progress.
Mexico
Mexico will be held in June 2024 **According to Mexican law, ** cannot be re-elected. The six-year term of the current López López ends in September next year.
In September 2023, Mexico's ruling party, the National Regeneration Movement party, announced that Claudia Hinbaum, the party's female candidate, would represent the party in next year's ** elections. Given that the opposition coalition has also put forward female candidates, it is widely expected that there will be a showdown of female candidates in Mexico next year.
United Kingdom
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to hold the meeting in autumn 2024**.
In 2022, the head of the United Kingdom has changed several times. In October of that year, Sunak became the third British prime minister of the year, the youngest British prime minister since 1812, and the first Indian prime minister in British history.
Some analysts have pointed out that Sunak believes that in the autumn of 2024**, the Conservative Party is most likely to achieve a surprise victory. Recent polls show that Labour's support continues to outperform the Conservatives.
United States
The 60th U.S. election is scheduled for November 5, 2024, and the winner of the election is scheduled for inauguration on January 20, 2025.
Potential candidates include the incumbent Joe Biden, the 45th Donald Trump, who lost re-election in 2020.
In addition, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will face re-election. Governorships in 13 states and territories, as well as many other state and local elections, will also be held as scheduled.
India
In 2024, India will usher in a five-year election** to elect the lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha).
BJP leader Narendra Modi, who has been prime minister for nine years and is India's longest-serving prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru, Gandhi and Singh, is preparing for next year's national event. In the vote in key districts, the BJP has taken the lead in three-quarters of the states, indicating that Modi has received huge support in front of **.
Investment Trends. The US dollar is on the downside
The USD has continued to weaken since the end of October 2023 and further** after the Fed released its quarterly outlook in December.
According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts on the G10 and emerging markets, the majority of respondents believe the dollar will weaken in 2024. Wells Fargo economists believe that in 2024, the dollar is expected to depreciate broadly, although the excellent performance of the US economy may provide support for the dollar early next year.
Euro**
While the Fed has bluntly stated that the issue of interest rate cuts is "on the horizon", the ECB insists that interest rates need to remain high for a long time. The divergence in monetary policy is in favor of EURUSD**.
According to Royal Bank of Canada's (RBC) Global Asset Management's 2024 investment outlook, the euro will be around 10% next yearBNP Paribas**, the euro will rise to 1 against the US dollar by the end of 202415；Commerzbank expects the euro to be strong against the dollar until mid-2024.
The yen stopped falling
The yen's three-year streak-out** momentum is expected to end in 2024.
With the market betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year and the Bank of Japan to exit its negative interest rate policy next year, the market expects the yen to be ** next year. Most BOJ observers believe that April is the most likely time for the BOJ to make a monetary policy pivot.
The outlook for U.S. debt is uncertain
At the end of 2023, the signal of the Fed's policy pivot triggered a sharp ** in US Treasury yields, and many Wall Street strategists abandoned their previous ** for 2024**, but there is still a divergence between bulls and bears.
TD** believes that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note could reach 3% within a year from nowGoldman Sachs**, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is 4% by the end of 2024. The Bloomberg survey average** results show that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will fall to 39%。
The U.S. stock IPO was unfrozen
The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market in 2023 has been relatively quiet, and the outlook for the IPO market in 2024 is expected to improve in anticipation of the Fed's interest rate cuts.
Jim Cooney, head of Americas** Capital Markets at Bank of Americas, said: "Investors have restarted looking for growth assets. ”
Companies that are expected to make large-scale IPOs include sports e-commerce platform Fanatics, Reddit, and casual dining group Panera.
A-shares** upward
According to the survey results of the private placement network for 2024** and investment opportunities, nearly eighty percent of private equity believes that A-shares are expected to rise in 2024, and half of private equity is optimistic about the technology sector.
A number of foreign-funded institutions also said in their 2024 China market investment outlook that positive policy signals continue to accumulate, the trading volume and investor sentiment of the A** market have recovered, and the current risk-reward ratio of China** is attractive.
Hong Kong stocks are out of the slump
Hong Kong stocks are coming to an end this year, and the market is expected to fall again throughout the year. Institutions and analysts pointed out that in 2024, Hong Kong stocks are expected to come out of the downturn with their resilience.
Boosted by the improvement of internal and external environmental factors, it is expected that the resonance of the inventory cycle in China and the United States will promote the fundamental repair of Hong Kong stocks, and the recent stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the easing of Sino-US relations or the return of foreign capital and other factors, Hong Kong stocks are expected to start repairing throughout the year**.
Gold prices continue to climb
*is a typical safe-haven asset, and looking ahead to 2024, there is still momentum to maintain the rally. UBS expects Fed rate cuts, combined with real interest rates**, to reach new highs in 2024 and 2025. According to the Fed's previous interest rate hike cycles, gold prices tend to be **2% about 3 months after the end of the previous interest rate hike cycle, but will **7% in the next 6 months.
Oil prices are hard to get back to $100
Goldman Sachs lowered its 2024 Brent*** forecast to between $70 and $90 per barrel. CICC also released a research report saying that the marginal cost in 2024 may be in the range of $80-85 per barrel.
Although the conflict in Russia and the Middle East has affected the oil market, the strong growth of the United States, Guyana, Brazil and other countries is expected to not have much risk in the market next year, and oil prices will not rise to the $100 barrel level.
Real estate leasing is in high demand
S&P**, despite the slowdown, rental housing demand in the global real estate sector will remain healthy in 2024.
In Europe, residential rents will be supported by lagging indicators, declining indicators, and increased demand from immigrants;China's property sales will bottom out in 2024, boosting the rental marketThe U.S. housing market is at an impasse in 2023 due to high mortgage rates, low inventory, and high home prices, and in 2024, renting is still popular, and more renters will enter the market.
Bitcoin is still in a bull market
According to Coindesk, analyst Bitcoin could reach $160,000 in 2024. This is based on a number of factors: the demand for Bitcoin from U.S. spot exchange trading (ETFs), the Bitcoin halving event, and, overall, growth.
Notably, seven major traditional financial institutions, including Blackstone and BlackRock, are in talks with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) about spot bitcoin ETFs, which would further boost the bitcoin market cap if they go public.
Economic and trade trends. China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3Version 0 negotiations
In November 2022, China and ASEAN jointly announced the official launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3Version 0 negotiationsFebruary 7, 2023, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3Version 0 negotiations launched the first round of consultations.
Shi Zhongjun, Secretary-General of the China-ASEAN Center, said in an interview that he would strive to complete the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3 in 20240 version of the negotiation, continue to promote regional economic integration.
The European Union's Digital Services Act is in full force
The most stringent rules in the EU's Digital Services Act have already applied to at least 19 large platforms, including Twitter, from 25 August 2023, with smaller platforms to be included in their enforcement in 2024.
The regulation covers a variety of aspects, such as social ** moderation, e-commerce advertising push, and combating counterfeit goods, aiming to ensure the safety of users during use, prevent the spread of illegal or harmful content that violates the platform's terms of service, and hope to protect user privacy. Companies that violate the Digital Services Act can be fined up to 6% of their global turnover, which could be in the billions of euros.
Brazil joins OPEC
Brazil**Lula announced at COP28 that Brazil will join the OPEC+ Alliance of Oil Producers as an "observer" from January 2024.
Brazil is the largest oil producer in South America, ranking 10th in the world in terms of oil exports in 2022. Brazil's oil production capacity has grown rapidly in recent years, reaching an average of 3.5 million barrels per day in 2023. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, Brazil is likely to become the world's fifth-largest oil producer in 2023.
30 countries implement the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement
The AfCFA** is currently being piloted, with full coverage starting in 2024, with 30 African countries starting to implement the AfCFA. The agreement, which entered into force in 2019, has been signed by 54 African countries, of which 30 have signed the agreement on the free movement of goods, and 47 national parliaments have ratified the agreement. The agreement aims to promote tariff reductions and reductions within the African continent, provide the best facilitation, and promote the best development within African countries.
Official website of the African Union.
The 15% global minimum corporate tax is in effect in Vietnam
From January 1, 2024, Vietnam will impose a global minimum tax rate of 15% on multinational companies. The resolution aims to discourage countries from competing to lower tax rates in order to attract investment.
According to the initiative of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), from 2024 onwards, the annual turnover worldwide will exceed 7500 million euros (about 8.)$2.5 billion) are subject to a minimum tax of 15% regardless of location. The initiative is supported by more than 140 countries.
Chips are recovering strongly
Institutions generally expect the chip industry to recover strongly in 2024 and achieve double-digit growth: the World Semiconductor Statistics Organization (WSTS) expects sales to increase by 131% to $588 billion;The International Data Corporation (IDC) believes that the semiconductor sales market will return to the growth trend in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 20%;The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), and Gartner, an information technology research and analysis company, have also said that 2024 is the year of recovery for the semiconductor market.
Technology and green.
The Chang'e-6 mission is progressing well
According to the China National Space Administration, the development of the Chang'e-6 mission of the lunar exploration project is being carried out as planned, and the launch is planned to be carried out around 2024. According to the arrangement, the Chang'e-6 mission will carry out sample returns from the far side of the moon.
In terms of international cooperation, the Chang'e-6 mission carried payloads and satellite projects from four countries, including France's radon gas detector, ESA's negative ion detector, Italy's laser angle mirror, and Pakistan's CubeSat.
The United States is paving the way for another moon landing
In April 2023, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) announced the Artemis 2 crew. As the second phase of a new U.S. manned lunar landing program, Artemis 2 is scheduled to fly around the moon in November 2024.
This is the closest the United States has come to the moon since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. If the mission is successful, NASA plans to launch Artemis 3 to send astronauts to the moon.
South Korea promotes the establishment of a Korean version of NASA
On April 25, 2023, South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol said during a visit to the Goddard Space Center of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that he is promoting the establishment of a Korean version of NASA, the Korea Aeronautics and Space Administration (KASA).
In March 2023, South Korea's Ministry of Science and Information Communications unveiled a bill to establish a national space agency within the year. However, due to the difficulty of resolving differences within the Congress, the bill has not been reviewed and passed. Discussions around the establishment of the body are expected to continue in 2024.
Private exploration of Mars may not be possible
In July 2022, space start-up Relativity Space and space transport company Impulse Space announced that they would land on the surface of Mars in less than three years. 2024 will be the year of its final sprint.
As early as 2016, Musk, the founder of SpaceX, claimed that his company could send humans to Mars through an "interstellar transportation system" in 2024, and finally realize the pioneering feat of immigrating to Mars.
However, landing on Mars still faces many challenges, and only China and the United States have achieved Mars exploration missions so far.
Quantum computing gives wings to AI
Quantum computing has come to the forefront of AI research. Entering 2024, people will see the rise of quantum AI derived from the combination of quantum computing and AI. Quantum AI takes advantage of the special properties of quantum computers, such as quantum superposition and quantum entanglement, to accelerate machine learning and optimization algorithms, enabling more efficient and accurate AI applications. It will also become an important development direction in the field of AI in the future.
6G standard planning launched
6G, the sixth-generation mobile communication standard, can promote the development of the industrial Internet and the Internet of Things. The industry expects that the 6G standardization plan will be launched from 2024 to 2025, and the first standard technology will be launched from 2027 to 2028In addition to the inclusion of ultra-wideband receiver and transmitter technologies, more innovations will be introduced in the integration of terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks, artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Hydrogen-electric commercial flight operation
In 2021, hydrogen-electric aircraft developer Zero**ia announced that its hydrogen-electric aircraft would make its first commercial flight between London, UK, and Rotterdam, the Netherlands, in 2024;In January 2023, Zero**ia flew the world's largest hydrogen-electric aircraft in the UK.
In addition, German developer H2Fly completed the first test flight of a liquid hydrogen-powered electric aircraft in September 2023. It is reported that the company will also open a hydrogen aviation center at Stuttgart Airport next year.
From this point of view, the operation of hydrogen-electric commercial flights in 2024 may become a reality.
The ISSB guidelines were implemented
On 26 June 2023, the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) published two official documents for the first time, IFRS S1 – General Requirements for Sustainability-related Financial Disclosures and IFRS S2 – Climate-related Disclosures. The new disclosure standards will come into effect on 1 January 2024. According to the ISSB, the two documents have ushered in a new era of information disclosure related to the sustainable development of global capital markets.
Green metals are in high demand
In the European Green Deal, the EU lists 30 green metals that are essential for the energy transition, including copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel, neodymium, etc. Strong demand for green metals is reshaping the global energy landscape, and in 2024, the green energy transition will continue to deepen in countries around the world and change the demand for metal mining.
And then there's all this big thing going on.
Mickey Mouse copyright expires
The original version of Disney's Mickey Mouse was created on October 1, 1928, by Walt Disney, the founder of The Disney Company. According to the U.S. Copyright Reserve**, Mickey Mouse's copyright protection period is 95 years, which means that starting in 2024, the original Mickey Mouse image will automatically enter the "public domain". This also means that people can use the image of the original Mickey Mouse without having to pay royalties.
WHO publishes the final draft of the epidemic treaty
In response to the pandemic, the United States** is funding trials of three next-generation vaccines. Two of them are intranasal vaccines, which prevent infection by creating immunity in the tissues of the airways. The third is mRNA vaccines, which can enhance antibody and T-cell responses, promising lasting immunity against coronavirus variants.
The World Health Organization (WHO) will publish the final draft of its epidemic treaty at the 77th World Health Assembly in May 2024. The treaty aims to enable countries** to better prevent and manage future epidemics.
Foldable phones** take it a step further
With the decline in the cost of major spare parts such as hinges and screens, the sales of folding screen mobile phones are expected to continue to decline, of which horizontal folding products are expected to drop to RMB 4,000 to 5,000 yuan, while more vertical folding products will enter the RMB 3,000 to 4,000 yuan. The International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts that China's folding screen mobile phone market will ship nearly 10 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 532%。
Inclement weather is more frequent
El Niño is stirring up the global climate, and the World Meteorological Organization has warned that the current El Niño event is expected to last until at least April 2024.
In addition to temperature changes, El Niño also often destabilizes global climate patterns and makes severe weather more frequent. Regionally, in an El Niño year, drought is likely to occur in Indonesia, Australia, the South Asian subcontinent, while rainfall is expected from the equatorial central Pacific Ocean to the west coast of South America, and flooding is possible in Latin America (Brazil and Argentina).
The Bank of Japan issues new yen banknotes
In April 2023, the Bank of Japan officially released a new version of the banknote on its official website, including three banknotes: 10,000 yen, 5,000 yen and 1,000 yen. The new banknotes are expected to be issued in the first half of fiscal year 2024. In addition to the design updates, the new banknote incorporates the latest anti-counterfeiting technologies such as 3D holograms. Japan** announced its currency renewal plan shortly after announcing in 2019 that it would change its era name to "Reiwa". The analysis points out that the renewal of the banknote will boost cash flow.