As 2023 draws to a close, we can't help but think about and look forward to the development of China's economy in 2024. With the convening of the Third Plenum, people's expectations and concerns about the new round of reform and economic prospects have been further deepened. The tone of the high-level meeting has made clear the general direction of next year's economy for us, which is embodied in three key words - seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down. These three key words contain wisdom and philosophical dialectical thinking, which will guide the future development of China's economy. In the complex and volatile domestic and international situation, we need the strategic determination to seek progress while maintaining stability to cope with the current problems and challenges. This article will focus on this theme and provide an in-depth analysis of the development prospects of China's economy in 2024 from different perspectives.
In 2023, the international situation is not only complex but also unstable, and various variables are still evolving rapidly. In the economic circles of developed countries, there are growing voices calling for greater cooperation. China has laid an important foundation for the Belt and Road Initiative, the BRICS Organization and cooperation among the countries of the South, but it still needs to be further strengthened and consolidated. Within the US-Western alliance, especially in Europe, which is facing the pressure of the energy crisis and economic recession, there are growing calls for strategic autonomy. The United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand, members of the Five Eyes alliance, are all moving closer to China and emphasizing cooperation, as are Japan and South Korea. However, these changes have not yet fully stabilized and require our continued efforts.
There are five problems in China that need to be solved and improved urgently. First, the risk of a housing bubble is still unresolved, and in addition to the overheated housing market, the risk of dollar debt remains, as the recent alarm events remind us. Second, there are still risks in the financial sector, and regulators at all levels have emphasized the need to guard against financial risks, especially the imminent interest rate cut of the US dollar in 2024, which requires us to be prepared. Third, the problem has not yet been solved, and the recent 3000-point defense battle has received widespread attention and requires vigilance. Fourth, the economic recovery is uneven, and the development of all walks of life is uneven. While the automotive and innovation industries have made great progress, traditional industries still need to consolidate their foundations. Fifth, the accumulation of science and technology industry and advanced manufacturing industry is still insufficient, although investment has been increased in the past few years, the foundation in some areas is still not solid, and the gap still exists. For example, the competition in the field of new energy vehicles is fierce, and the advantage is not stable.
In this complex and volatile domestic and international situation, the high-level meeting gave a clear direction for economic development, that is, to seek progress while maintaining stability, to promote stability through progress, and to establish first and then break down. These three key words, full of wisdom and philosophical dialectical thinking, will guide the future development of China's economy.
Seeking progress while maintaining stability emphasizes stabilizing the foundation for development and then seeking better development. In the face of the many problems and challenges we are facing, stable development is the top priority. We cannot afford to pursue progress without losing sight of the importance of a solid foundation. Seeking progress while maintaining stability requires us to maintain stable economic operation, ensure the foundation for the development of all walks of life, and lay a solid foundation for subsequent development.
To promote stability through progress, the emphasis is not to be too conservative, and to stabilize is to pursue better development. While maintaining stability, we must also pursue better development, and we must not be too conservative and lead to stagnation. Promoting stability through progress means that we must think aggressively and strive to promote the implementation of various reform measures and development strategies to promote sustained economic growth.
The emphasis is on solving problems in the course of reform and gradually breaking the old pattern. Reform is inseparable from the solution of existing problems, and it is necessary to first solve current problems and establish a stable foundation. Only when the problems are solved one by one can we break the old pattern and achieve real reform. At the new starting point, we must profoundly understand that the premise of reform is to first solve the current problems and gradually solve the difficult problems.
In short, a clear direction for economic development shows us the way forward. However, the current situation at home and abroad is complex and changeable, and we must have sufficient strategic determination and decision-making courage to face it. At present, we are still facing the complexity of the international struggle, such as the imminent recession of the US economy. At the same time, there are many challenges in China, such as the risk of real estate bubbles, problems in the financial sector, and instability. With the U.S. economy facing turmoil, we need to be patient and prepared.
Therefore, economic development needs to be steadily advanced on the basis of solving current problems, and the pace of rapid progress should be made when the domestic and international situation becomes more favorable. In the process, we need to strengthen our own capabilities and response capabilities to maintain economic stability and development while solving problems. In this way, China's economy in 2024 can be further stabilized and coordinated with the international situation and environment. Crucially, we need to keep in mind that we can afford to wait for the upcoming changes.
Summary: In the face of complex and volatile domestic and international situations, China's economic development in 2024 needs to seek progress while maintaining stability, promote stability through progress, and establish first and then break down. We need to build on the current issues to make steady progress in order to meet more favorable opportunities in the future. In the turbulent situation of the US economy, we need to maintain strategic focus and decision-making courage, and only make big and rapid progress when more favorable conditions are available. Only by advancing in stability can we achieve sustained development and stability of China's economy.