Written by Ma Xiaolei.
Edited by Windsor.
Designer Super.
* Bloomberg, Financial Times, The Guardian by Jennifer A Dlouhy, Laura Millan, John Ainger
Dubai, half sea, half desert. Just as the city itself is a contradiction, the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Climate Change Convention (COP28) concluded in a place rich in oil and gas, with the first agreement in history to "move away" from fossil fuels.
Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and two-week COP28 chairman. Just like his controversial status, the UAE Consensus was reached amid applause and scolding. Nearly 24 hours later, at 11:15 a.m. UAE time on December 13, Jaber made the final decision, and hundreds of people in the venue stood up to applaud the oil tycoon.
2023 is the hottest year on record, and many countries are confident that at this year's conference, the world will commit to "eradicate" or "phase out" all fossil fuels.
At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, the parties agreed to phase down the use of coal, and an alliance between the United States, the European Union and climate-vulnerable island states – the small island states most vulnerable to climate change – hopes that this year's meeting will address oil and gas.
Wording disputes. Since the breakthrough of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the annual climate negotiations have become increasingly complex. Under the Paris Agreement, efforts are needed to limit the global average temperature rise to 1within 5 degrees Celsius. Countries now need to agree on the concrete steps needed to achieve this goal. At this session, the negotiations were on the verge of breaking down.
The coalition, represented by the United States, the European Union, and climate-vulnerable island states, explicitly called for phase-out of fossil fuels to be included in the agreement, while fossil fuel producers, represented by Saudi Arabia, and some developing countries, demanded that fossil fuels be avoided by mentioning fossil fuels.
Highland fires forced thousands of people to evacuate in Southern California
The contradiction began on the fifth day of the meeting. Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said Saudi Arabia would never agree to phase down fossil fuels.
A few days later, leaders of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including the United Arab Emirates, encouraged member states to reject any language calling for a reduction in fossil fuel production. Since decisions of the Conference of the Parties were taken by consensus, there was a risk that individual countries would block an agreement.
Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Prince Salman
At the same time, Jaber is also facing a crisis of confidence. Just before COP28 opened, a report from the Centre for Climate Reporting said Jaber planned to use his position to intercede for oil and gas. A few days later, the Guardian revealed a paragraph showing that he had questioned whether he needed to phase out fossil fuels to limit global warming to 1Within 5 degrees Celsius.
The scandals have put more pressure on Jaber to do something about fossil fuels. Teresa Ribera, Spain's Minister for Environmental Transitions, said: "He is responsible for the results, and this is a very important incentive. He insisted that fossil fuels should be written into the agreement.
On December 11, the situation was even worse.
With just two days to go until COP28 concludes, Jaber's team has released a draft suggesting a range of options that countries can adopt, including increasing renewables and cutting back fossil fuels. The wording was too soft, angering countries that have been pushing to phase out fossil fuels, while Saudi Arabia and its allies want to avoid mentioning oil and gas altogether.
Colombia's environment minister, María Susana Muhamad, said that writing was unsatisfactory on both sides. This put pressure on both sides to start talks.
Negotiators gathered for a closed-door meeting, at which they detailed the proposal's shortcomings one by one.
John Silk, head of the Marshall Islands delegation and chair of the Group of Climate-Vulnerable Island States, said: "What we are seeing today is unacceptable. We will not go to the grave in silence. The Australian representative assured him at the meeting, saying that "Australia will not sign their death certificates." ”
A man drags a table in a flood in Pakistan
On December 12, dozens of bilateral meetings were held between opposing factions, with the United States, China and the European Union working with the COP presidency to mediate.
Jennifer Morgan, Germany's special representative for climate affairs, said: "We stayed up all night, listening to our allies in developing countries, and conducting shuttle diplomacy with countries such as Brazil, the United States, South Africa, etc. ”
John Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy, said a minister from a fossil fuel-producing country told him: "You can't ask us to kill ourselves economically." "European negotiators had at least two difficult talks with the Saudis. Jaber's team held talks with many countries.
Eventually, drawing on previous international conference measures, the final version of the agreement uses the phrase "transition away from" fossil fuels, rather than "phase out" or "phase down". Although this result is not what everyone wants, the good thing is that everyone can accept it.
Jaber was relieved.
The UAE's success in hosting the largest-ever UN climate summit with more than 100,000 attendees marks a diplomatic peak for the UAE.
Clean-up and reconstruction efforts after the damage caused by Hurricane Otis
Progress and regrets.
According to the UAE Consensus, the oil industry has succeeded in securing two main priorities: making room for natural gas and emphasizing carbon capture as a climate solution.
Little progress has been made in providing financing to developing countries, and the Alliance of Small Island States warns that the pact is far from sufficient to address the climate crisis. Anne Rasmussen, the group's chief negotiator, said: "We've made progress on a business-as-usual basis, and what we really need is a big shift in action and support." ”
In response to the result, The Guardian reported that 130 of the 198 countries negotiating in Dubai supported the stronger language of "phase out", but were blocked by oil-exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia.
After COP28 ended, activists hugged each other and cried
Professor Michael Mann, a climatologist and geophysicist at the University of Pennsylvania in the United States, said: "The absence of an agreement to phase out fossil fuels is devastating. ”
An editorial in the journal Nature said that the failure to phase out fossil fuels is not only a missed opportunity, but also dangerous, at odds with the core goals set out in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Dr Magdalena Skipper, the journal's editor-in-chief, said: "The science is clear, fossil fuels must be phased out. Unless world leaders accept this reality, they will be ashamed of their people and the planet. ”
Sir D**id King, chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group and former chief scientific adviser to the UK, said: "The language of the agreement is weak. To make sure 1For the 5C target to remain achievable, a comprehensive commitment to a range of far-reaching measures, including a complete phase-out of fossil fuels, is required. ”
Scientists say that accelerating carbon capture and storage is a little useful to do.
Behind the intense diplomatic negotiations, countries and businesses have also reached agreements to take more direct and concrete climate action to reduce the demand for fossil fuels and eliminate harmful emissions.
Fifty of the world's top fossil fuel producers, including Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil and BP, have signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter, a voluntary agreement to stop routine flaring of excess natural gas by 2030 and eliminate leaks of almost all methane, a strong greenhouse gas.
Methane has caused up to 30% of global warming since the beginning of the industrial age, so the Dubai Charter contributes to climate protection, even though the 50 signatory countries account for less than a third of the industry's total emissions from operations, scientists say.
Oil companies may choose to shut down some of their production as it is the most cost-effective way to achieve their goal of zero methane combustion
So, can the goals of the Charter be achieved?Adam Pollard of Wood Mackenzie Research said: "Different companies do things differently. ”
Some of the largest oil companies have pledged to end routine combustion operations and near-zero methane emissions, he said. With continuous monitoring, detection, and mitigation, near-zero methane is entirely achievable.
COP28's second commitment is to triple global renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 GWh by 2030, impacting demand for fossil fuels.
More than 120 countries have signed this pledge, which requires greater efforts than ever before. From 2010 to 2022, it took 12 years to achieve the last target of tripling renewable energy capacity. This time it had to be done in eight years.
Analysts from the BloombergNEF research group assessed the pledge and concluded that achieving it was difficult but achievable.
According to Bloomberg NEF, solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new energy generation in most countries**, and in many places, direct subsidies are no longer the main factor needed to accelerate deployment.
The development of renewable energy is being hampered by a series of bottlenecks. Two of the main culprits are: the permit approval process can stall a project for years;The lack of necessary investment has prevented grids built for fossil fuels from absorbing renewable energy.
Analysts at the Bloomberg Global Renewable Energy Forum say that for every $1 increase in global renewable energy investment, only 5 cents are spent on transmission and distribution grids.
As a result, it could take up to eight years to obtain grid connection permits in Europe, meaning that wind farm projects proposed in 2023 will not be able to connect to the grid in a timely manner.
It is estimated that by the end of 2022, there will be nearly 600GWh of renewable energy projects in five European countries waiting to be connected to the grid, which is enough to double the region's power generation capacity.
The third commitment is to improve energy efficiency. By 2030, collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvement, from about 2% to more than 4% per year.
James Newcomb, a senior expert in the Rocky Mountain Institute's research group, said, "It's a very ambitious goal, but it's achievable. ”
Heads of State at COP28 pose for a group photo
The surge in energy** triggered by the war in Ukraine has led to a record amount of global investment in energy efficiency. Even before that, dozens of countries analyzed by the IEA have increased their energy intensity by 4% or more in at least one of the last 10 years.
Achieving these three energy commitments will certainly require action. However, this is not enough.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), even if all three commitments are met, this would only be equivalent to about 30% of the emissions reductions needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
In other words, COP28 has taken an important step forward, but it is still far from the huge progress that the world needs.