Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter
On the arid Arabian Peninsula in Western Asia is dominated by Saudi Arabia, which covers an area of 2.25 million square kilometers, and is home to the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina. It ranks first in the world in terms of oil reserves and production, and is a veritable "oil kingdom" and a core member of the OPEC monopoly. Due to drought and water scarcity, it is not only necessary to import large quantities of agricultural products, but it is also the world's largest producer of desalinated seawater.
According to the Saudi Statistical Agency. Saudi Arabia's nominal GDP per capita in 1962 was $485 ($472 in Singapore and $634 in Japan in the same year), and Saudi Arabia was not poor at that time, after all, it exported a lot of oil, although the oil ** was not high. In the years that followed, nominal GDP per capita increased steadily and slowly, reaching $795 in 1969. In 1970, it suddenly increased to $927 and in 1971 to $1,186, which is not a small increase in these two years, which shows that the total volume of cheap oil exports from Saudi Arabia is increasing rapidly. In 1972 and 1973, the per capita nominal GDP growth rate was even greater, and in 1973 the per capita nominal GDP increased to 2,246 US dollars, which is a manifestation of the huge gains brought to Saudi Arabia in the process of the oil crisis caused by the OPEC monopoly. The dust of the first oil crisis settled, and the high oil price situation brought about by it suddenly led to a multiple-fold increase in per capita nominal GDP in 1974, reaching 6,489 US dollars (in the same year, Japan was 4,182 US dollars, Singapore was 2,359 US dollars, and the United States was 7,241 US dollars, and Saudi Arabia suddenly stepped into the ranks of high-income countries), which shows that oil exports are several times.
For Gulf oil-exporting countries, per capita nominal GDP is roughly proportional to per capita foreign exchange earnings, which are mainly determined by per capita oil export earnings, which in turn depend on per capita oil exports and exports**. The rise in oil exports per capita and per capita oil exports is responsible for almost all of the nominal GDP per capita.
Nominal GDP per capita is basically proportional to the ability per capita to purchase foreign (imported) goods. People's ability to buy foreign goods is a component of people's spending power (the importance depends on people's quality of life, the higher the degree of social development or the higher the quality of people's life, the more people consume industrial and agricultural products, but the lower the proportion of industrial and agricultural products consumption in total consumption), which means that an increase in per capita nominal GDP will lead to an increase in per capita real GDP, which is basically the case. In 1967, 1968 and 1969, the per capita real GDP growth was 59%，4.5%，3.1%。This is not slow among the countries of the Gulf region. This is the gradual increase in oil exports, which brings higher incomes and improves the efficiency of Saudi society. What was truly striking was the 8 percent increase in real GDP per capita in 1970With a high growth rate of 5%, the per capita nominal GDP increased by 16 percent this year6%, that is, the ability to consume imported goods per capita increased by 166%, which leads to the consumption of more imported goods, naturally significantly increases the per capita consumption capacity, and it is natural that the per capita real GDP will increase significantly.
With 1971 nominal GDP per capita grew by 279%, and the per capita real GDP also increased by 12% that year, which is rare even in Japan. In 1972, nominal GDP per capita grew by 285%, which has led to a 15% increase in real GDP per capita, which is even more surprising, and this is not the largest. In 1973, nominal GDP per capita grew by 473%, and the real GDP per capita increased by 169%, making it the largest increase in Saudi Arabia's real GDP per capita.
In 1974, nominal GDP per capita grew by 1889%, nominal GDP growth is rare in the world, but it only brought 166% increase in real GDP per capita. Why hasn't it led to a larger increase in real GDP per capita?This is not only due to the fact that Saudi Arabia does not distribute all of this new income to its own people, but also because of the principle of economics similar to Engel's coefficient. Although people's consumption capacity for industrial and agricultural products will gradually increase with the increase of income, people's consumption desire for industry and agriculture will not increase at the same time, and the increase in people's consumption desire for industrial and agricultural products will gradually decrease with the increase of income, which leads to the increase in people's consumption of industrial and agricultural products also decreasing with the increase of per capita income. The increase in Saudi Arabia's per capita income can naturally lead to an increase in Saudi Arabia's per capita ability to consume imported goods, but when Saudi Arabia's per capita income increases to a certain extent, it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia's per capita consumption desire to import goods to increase with the increase in income, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's consumption desire for imported goods will decrease with the increase in income. This led to a rare increase in Saudi per capita income in 1974, which did not result in the same increase in consumption of imported goods, and the increase in consumption of imported goods was much lower than the increase in income.
As can be seen from the above comparison of per capita nominal GDP in 1974, Saudi Arabia's per capita nominal GDP was already at the world-class level, and the proportion of its consumption of industrial and agricultural products in GDP was no longer large, and the increase in the consumption of imported industrial and agricultural products had little impact on real GDP. This means that Saudi Arabia's rapid real GDP growth will come to an end. Indeed, real GDP per capita in 1974 was close to the peak of Saudi real GDP per capita.
The small increase in oil in 1975 led to a drop in nominal GDP per capita to $6,340, which led to a decline of 4 in real GDP per capita1%。In 1976, nominal GDP per capita grew by 296 per cent, resulting in a 6 per capita real GDP growth, and a large increase in per capita nominal GDP can no longer lead to a large increase in real GDP per capita, as was even more clearly demonstrated in 1977 (96%, which only contributed to the growth of real GDP per capita by 11%）。
1977 was an epoch-making year for the Saudi economy, when real GDP per capita reached an all-time high (perhaps more likely in the future with technological advances), equivalent to 180 real GDP per capita in 197039%。In just seven years from 1971 to 1977, real GDP per capita increased by 8039%, an average of nearly 8An increase of 8%, which is the benefit brought to Saudi Arabia by the sharp rise in oil**. Real GDP per capita in 1966 was only 80 percent of what it was in 197042%, in the 11 years from 1967 to 1977, Saudi Arabia's real GDP per capita increased by 1243%。The per capita real GDP growth rate is not small, which has led to a change in the level of people's demand, and the proportion of industrial and agricultural commodities in total consumption is already small, and the proportion of consumption in the service industry is already very large. This has naturally brought about a large growth in Saudi Arabia's service industry, and it is difficult for Saudi nationals to provide each other with adequate services, which is naturally more expensive, which has led to the need for a large number of foreign cheap laborers, accelerating the growth of Saudi Arabia's permanent population, which has led to an increase in Saudi Arabia's permanent population of up to 6 in some years5%。
In 1978, nominal GDP per capita grew by 216%, such a small increase, with serious consequences, per capita real GDP fell by 65%。The good thing came again, the second oil crisis occurred, and oil *** led to a nominal GDP per capita growth of 31 in 19793%, which will increase real GDP per capita by 34%。In 1980, nominal GDP per capita grew by 383%, which in turn led to a 0.0 per capita real GDP growth2%, although very weak, but after all, it is an increase. In 1981, nominal GDP per capita peaked at $17,577 ($10,060 in Japan, $5,655 in Singapore, and $13,960 in the United States), the highest peak before 2008. In 1981, nominal GDP per capita increased by 515%, which is not enough to stimulate the growth of per capita real GDP for Saudi Arabia, which has a high per capita nominal GDP, which led to a decline of 1 in per capita real GDP that year6%。This decline is just the beginning, with the increase in oil, Saudi Arabia's per capita nominal GDP continues to decline, which has also brought about a significant decline in real GDP per capita. For example, in 1982 nominal GDP per capita fell by 22 percent, which led to a decline in real GDP per capita by 159%, which is seriously inconsistent with the real GDP per capita growth of the same nominal GDP growth, which can be explained by the trend of market equilibrium in Saudi national consumption.
Saudi Arabia's national income has increased, and the consumption of imported goods has also increased, and in this rapidly developing consumer market has not yet reached equilibrium, it is difficult for Saudi Arabian citizens to achieve the optimal consumption structure that they objectively need, which leads to their consumption of imported goods being somewhat large and their consumption of service industries being somewhat small. With the gradual satisfaction of consumer durables and daily consumer goods, people's consumption interests will gradually adapt to their income, their preference for durable consumer goods will gradually weaken, and the demand for various service industries will gradually increase, that is, people's consumption tends to market equilibrium. Since the domestic service industry** is relatively high relative to imported goods**, this naturally leads to a decline in Saudi Arabia's real GDP per capita.
In 1987, nominal GDP per capita was $5,891 ($20,071 in Japan, $7,767 in Singapore, and $20,055 in the United States), although much higher than $927 in 1970. However, in 1987, Saudi real GDP per capita fell to an all-time low since 1970, equivalent to 94 in 197047%。Saudi Arabia's nominal GDP per capita trough was $5,834 in 1988. This is naturally the result of the gradual decline in oil ** after the oil crisis.
From 1985 (real GDP per capita was equivalent to 104 in 1970.)94%) by 2003 (real GDP per capita is equivalent to 104 in 197023%), Saudi real GDP per capita has been fluctuating around 100% of 1970 levels (the highest point was 1992, equivalent to 106 in 1970).47%）。During this period, the per capita nominal GDP was less than $10,000 (the highest point was $9,744 in 2003). It can be said that the past 16 years have been a period of stagnation of Saudi Arabia's per capita economy, and considering the rapid population growth rate in Saudi Arabia, the overall Saudi economy is still growing.
Saudi Arabia's per capita income stagnation fate was finally broken by China's rapid economic development, into the 21st century China, industrial development has begun to deeply affect the world economic situation, a large number of natural resources imported, resulting in natural resources ** began to continue**, oil ** continued**, resulting in the fate of Saudi Arabia exporting oil began to change. For example, oil*** led to a 10% increase in Saudi Arabia's nominal GDP in 20038%, which in turn leads to a 5% increase in real GDP per capita4% (This also includes a cyclical recovery in spending power, as real GDP per capita fell by 3% in 2001 and 2% in 2002, respectively.)4%）。Nominal GDP grew by 17 in 20047%, and real GDP per capita increased by 6%, which is also not a small increase.
In the 11 years from 2003 to 2013, except for the sharp decline in oil ** brought about by the US financial crisis in 2009, the per capita nominal GDP fell sharply, resulting in a decline in per capita real GDP by 1Except for 5%, real GDP per capita has increased by varying degrees in other years. By 2013, real GDP per capita was equivalent to 141 in 19701%。Although there is still a considerable distance from the highest peak that once was, it seems that there should be hope of catching up with the highest peak that once was. In 2013, the per capita nominal GDP reached US$24,953 (US$38,468 in Japan, US$55,182 in Singapore, and US$53,001 in the United States), which is equivalent to the per capita nominal GDP level of second-tier developed countries. Since some indicators have not yet reached the level of developed countries, Saudi Arabia is not yet a developed country, but a rich oil exporter.
The per capita nominal GDP of the oil-exporting countries in the Gulf is mainly dependent on international oil**, and the per capita nominal GDP is greatly affected by the international economic environment.
Saudi Arabia's real GDP per capita in 1970 was $36,697, while the U.S. GDP per capita was $24,481 in the same year. You must know that in 1970, Saudi Arabia's per capita nominal GDP was only 927 US dollars (1970 dollar value), and in the same year, the United States was 5246 US dollars (1970 dollar value), and the per capita nominal GDP was only one-fifth of the United States, while the per capita real GDP was higher than that of the United States.
In 2013, Saudi Arabia's per capita real GDP was US$51,779, which is already the per capita real GDP level of a first-class developed country, and twice as high as the per capita nominal GDP of US$24,953 in the same year.
With a population of 4.7 million in 1962, it still seemed like a small country. Since then, super-high fertility has led to super-high population growth rates, which grew at 268%, which should be the higher population growth rate brought about by Saudi Arabia's high fertility rate. In 1971 and beyond, Saudi Arabia became wealthier and more attractive to foreign populations, and the affluence of Saudi nationals also required more service production and the need for foreign population, which led to Saudi Arabia becoming an immigration destination for the Arab world and the Islamic world, bringing about a super-high growth rate of Saudi permanent population. For example, in the 19 years from 1971 to 1989, the population growth rate was 513%。China's so-called population growth rate before family planning was only about 2%. In the 24 years from 1990 to 2013, although the population growth rate was relatively slow, it was also as high as 26%。In 2013, Saudi Arabia had a population of 30 million, and it is no longer a small country with a small population.
Saudi Arabia's fertility rate in 2014 was 217. This shows that the fertility rate in Saudi Arabia has declined a lot, which is one of the results of the improvement of the level of social development in Saudi Arabia, such as the increase in the level of urbanization or the increase in the level of education. Saudi Arabia, which is so conservative, will also have a declining fertility rate when it becomes rich, albeit at a slower rate. It can be said once again that the general trend of population growth declining with the increase in real GDP per capita is applicable to all countries, and that religious factors, although clearly influenced, do not change this trend.