As the godfather of the field of "value investment" in contemporary China, Zhang Lei's classic examples of successful investment include Tencent, JD.com, Meituan, Gree, Airbnb, etc., Zhang Lei has always focused on Hillhouse's long-term value investment, and holds the company's shares for a long time, "to do a positive sum game", reject zero-sum games, and not aim at short-term interests. He also emphasized that everyone is their own value contributor.
Essentially, back to funding, making friends.
In my opinion, capital contribution is still the essence that must be returned to the company. What is the essence of capital contribution?It is nothing more than hoping that a sum of money today can recover more money in the future, and buy something for a dollar with 5 cents, or "plant a grain of millet in the spring and harvest a grain in the autumn". Essentially, funding is buying undervalued things, buying things that will exceed our expectations in the future. Looking at the essence of capital contribution, we should think from three dimensions.
Dimension 1: The dimension of the profession
First, look at the business model of the profession. I often say that buying a house depends on the occupation, just like buying a house to see the community, you can decorate your house, but there is no way to change the environment of the community, whether it is a school district house, the atrium of the community, etc., these elements you can't change. The company is the same, even if you have a very good management level, but if you are in a very bad career, no matter how dedicated and struggling you are, the results will not be very good.
And there are some professions, you will find that making money is too simple, and it is typical of the liquor profession. In 2013 and 2014, the "three public funds" were strictly managed, and the stock prices of most companies were lowered but they were still very good at making money. Therefore, from the perspective of occupation, the first thing is to look at the business model of the profession, that is, whether the profession is simple to make money.
Second, look at the format of the professional competition. We often talk about the format resolution ending, and the two typical companies are Midea and Gree. Air conditioning is not a very top-notch profession, but since the 2005 ** war, it has formed a format in which Gree and Midea have a great advantage in the market share. After the optimization of the professional format, even if the overall growth rate declined, the results of Gree and Midea increased rapidly, and the stock price also rose dozens of times.
Third, look at the threshold of the profession. China is a country with a very fierce competition, and there will be 100 people who "copy" for occupations with a slightly higher rate of return on capital and a slightly higher net profit rate. Therefore, the threshold is very important, either the resource is monopolized, or there is a license constraint, or there is a technical advantage, or there is a brand advantage. From the perspective of the liquor profession, in 2012 and 2013, many real estate companies tried to develop their own liquor brands, but they all died in 2015 and 2016.
Dimension 2: The dimension of the company
We are looking for companies with excellent varieties. Take a look at the internal management mechanism of the enterprise and look at the positioning of the product. I've always asked myself a question: if this company continues to grow, will it get bigger and stronger, or will it still get bigger and harder?In some occupations, after the development of enterprise planning to a certain extent, it will exceed the handling radius if it goes up, and the replicability is not strong, and it is difficult to increase.
Many software companies in China are actually doing system integration, and many rely on crowd tactics in the growth process, although the ** is increasing, but the per capita profit is declining, and there is no planning effect. It is different from Microsoft's productized software. We all want to buy a professional leader, and we must have a planning advantage, the bigger the stronger.
Dimension 3: the dimension of the management layer
There are two aspects to competence.
The first is to see whether the strategy is clear and focused. Many companies will transform into other professions, and we have never touched this kind of random transformation company. The old bank is not doing well, can it be done well in the transformation to a new profession?In the past two years, there have been very few successes in the various transformation companies.
The second is tactical execution. For small and medium-sized companies, the key depends on the personal ability and charm of the boss. We often investigate middle-level cadres to see if they worship their chairman;For large companies, the key performance objectives (KPIs) of mid-level executives will be looked at.
Generally speaking, there are not many companies we discuss, but they will gather in those professions that we can understand, understand, understand, and make money easily. If you want to calm down and figure out the three issues of occupation, company, and management level, you will spend a lot of time in a company, and once you have a heavy position, you will hold it for a long time.
In the past 18 months, my largest position in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has not changed, because it is clear before buying that even in a bear market, there are strong excess returns. In the short term, we don't need to change it, and in the long run, the cumulative returns are not good. Through the accumulation of moments, we must find excellent management personnel, excellent companies and lucrative careers.
After talking so much, in fact, the core is to answer a question: is the moment your friend?Just rely on luck and guts, gamble in the short term, what if the mall changes face?We often see that shopping malls change their faces faster than flipping through books. Returning to the essence of investment, we must find a good company, seize the opportunity, be a friend of the moment, and become a winner.
Today's content is only inspired by "Value", in this book, there is a lot of valuable content that is closely related to your work and earning money.
The book "Value" seems to be related to funding, but in fact it is a life manual, and the common sense of investment is part of it, and it is also a response to thoughts, helping us solve the confusion of almost all our days.
For example, the concept of moat mentioned in "value" can help us discover the certainty in uncertainty and improve the ability to resist danger. This book also draws on the wisdom of Chinese culture and summarizes three behavioral philosophies, which we can all learn better.
The book "Value" also helps us to carefully analyze the value of moments from multiple dimensions, which can greatly improve our time utilization. Don't be afraid, if you want to be a big problem but are confused, "values" can help you overcome the difficulties in front of you. Interested friends, you can poke the strip above, the book is very thick, but only a pack of cigarette money, the remuneration of the book will also be donated to my country's public welfare work, the meaning of this reading is self-evident.
It's not difficult to do things, the key is to find the direction of the other party, if you rely on yourself, it is difficult to find a reasonable direction, how to use the wisdom of those cattle, you can take a lot of detours, find a better direction, "Value" is worth reading.