Epic changes
In the coming 2024, making dumplings will surpass building a house, which is an epic change and the general trend after the population decline.
In 2023, the transaction volume of the overall property market will be between 11 trillion and 12 trillion yuan, and it will still maintain the status of the first brother in the industry, but in 2024, the property market will slide from the first brother in the industry to the second brother, and it will be surpassed by the food industry represented by dumplings.
In 2023, the overall data of China's food industry has not yet been released, but it can be extrapolated.
In 2022, China's food industry will grow steadily, and the operating income of enterprises above designated size will be 98 trillion yuan (excluding tobacco), the key is the growth rate, from 2021 to 2022, the growth rate is about 16%, and from 2022 to 2023, the growth rate is at least double digits.
The property market bottoms out in 2024, and the transaction volume is expected to be basically the same as in 2023, while in 2024, household consumption in Chinese mainland will increase by 8 percent year-on-year5%, people take food as the sky, household consumption increases, and the food industry benefits, so in 2024, making dumplings will surpass building a house.
Whether it is a dumpling of more than ten yuan a pound or a house of 10,000 yuan and a square meter, it is a symbol of a better life. But the underlying logic behind it is different.
The good situation of the property market in the past 20 years is the demographic dividend and the financial leverage, but under the general trend of negative population growth, the incremental market is showing a strong crossbow.
The sage said that eating and drinking men and women, and man's great desires. What the sage didn't say is that the economy is growing rapidly, including house purchases, rentals, home appliances, and even the rapid growth of Durex's men and women, the economy is sluggish, and the demand for dumplings and the like is still strong, but it will tend to be more and more expensive, and the so-called high-end that is not known as strong will also be reduced.
A clear example is that BESTORE, which claims to be the leader in sales in the country but is actually only a snack porter, has begun its first price reduction in 17 years, with an average price reduction of 22% for more than 300 products
Why is China's economy growing at such a high rate?Entering the market and superimposing urbanization.
Because of entering the market, we have found the big party - the European and American markets, and the benefits of foreign trade in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The consumption concept of Chinese is that the new three years, the old three years, and the sewing and mending for another three years, and the consumption concept of Europeans and Americans is to buy a dozen shirts and throw them away after wearing. The import and export boom of 700 million shirts for a Boeing is not fair, and it has also put pressure on environmental protection, but it has indeed made some ordinary people in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rich!
The biggest beneficiary of the dividend of high-speed urbanization is the property market.
The path dependence of making money has changedIn 2006, Lao Hu, the first brother of Henan real estate, mentioned when talking about why he adhered to the main business of real estate, the urbanization rate of Henan and even the whole country is at least ten points per year, and theoretically 100 million people enter the city every year.
At that time, the urbanization rate was only more than 10 percent, even if there was no speculator in the market, the property market would take off, and it was precisely because there were too many people washing their feet and entering the city that the speed of building houses could not be satisfied, so there were shrewd speculators in the market.
Now that the urbanization rate is almost 70%, the dividend must have disappeared, and the birth rate has been negative!In some cities, there has been news of kindergartens closing.
However, the structural opportunities and dividends of the property market still exist, although the speculators have been eliminated, and the rigid demand has almost been suppressed, but the demand for improvement still exists.
A clear example is that Zhengzhou, the capital city of central China, for example, has sold well this year for improvement projects. The area that will benefit the most is the Jinshui North area.
In 2021, Meisheng, a local real estate company, will still rank sixth, but in 2023, it will become the first local brother in Zhengzhou's property market for the first time, and Meisheng's high-end real estate - Golden Watermark will also surpass China Resources Happiness and become the champion real estate in 2023.
Interestingly, Meisheng's real estate is concentrated in Jinshuibei in the area of Chenzhai and Miaoli in the third ring road of Zhengzhou, which is the most densely populated area in Zhengzhou, with a population density of more than 20,000 people, slightly lower than Chaoyang and Haidian in the imperial capital.
And the most correct thing that Meisheng did was to turn all the existing projects into improved real estate. Unit prices range from 16,000+ to 20,000*.
The property market in other cities across the country is also showing a trend of just needing to retreat and improve.
The challenge brought by the epic change is that the path dependence of the local ** to sell land to make money has changed!I was forced to vacate the cage and change the bird!
The process of vacating the cage for birds is very painful, and the small people at the bottom will become the price, and some cities, the stickers that make citizens complain are actually the embarrassing projections of the local ** rice cooking after the decline in land sales income.
In the epic changes, Zhengzhou will be hit by an epic impact, but the dividends of the times are still there!
The first quick-frozen dumplings since the reform and opening up were made by Zhengzhou people, and his name was Chen**.
Why do you say that Henan people are the mothers of Chinese?
Henan produces one-half of the country's ham sausages, one-third of instant noodles, one-quarter of steamed buns, three-fifths of glutinous rice balls, and seven-tenths of dumplings, and Henan exports more than 60 billion catties of raw grain and processed products to the country every year. Zhengzhou, the provincial capital, plays a pivotal and bridgehead in it!
Not only in the production process, but also in the transaction chain, Zhengzhou, the provincial capital, is even more outstanding, and has a decisive voice and influence in the global market.
Asia's largest frozen products market, the Central Plains Four Seasons Aquatic Products Logistics Port, Asia's largest condiment market, Xinji Condiment Food City, Asia's largest agricultural products wholesale market, Wanbang, the three largest in Asia, with an annual trading volume of more than 100 billion, are also the absolute head in the world.
Zhou Jian, president of the Henan Provincial Institute of Reform and Development, pointed out that Zhengzhou's food industry resource endowment is a big water, a big fish, a big pool
Learn Xi Hefei and be the best investment bank
Water is large, refers to the overall domestic and international market;"Fish big" refers to the main body of the market and the large-scale logistics platform of Wanbang and Four Seasons that it has bred, and has also cultivated many large-scale individuals"Big pool" refers to the market-oriented development carried out in the construction of the entire platform.
These development results are the final formation of the market after decades of development, and the formation of this market is not transferred by the will of people, each market has a strong industrial chain behind it, and at the same time, the industrial chain is also connected with a series of ** chain to link upstream and downstream manufacturers, distributors. Based on the concept of the entire market and the actual environment, such an overall situation of "big water, big fish, big pool" is finally formed.
It is precisely because of the big water, big fish, big pool, that the pot ring that originated in Zhengzhou was listed in only 5 years, and the current market value is more than 20 billion.
It is precisely because of the big water, big fish, big pool, that the first honey snow ice city in the domestic freshly made tea industry was born, with a valuation of up to 500 small goals.
In order to stabilize the property market, local governments have cooperated with central enterprises and local platforms, and began to implement the model of local ** exchanging land, central enterprises or local platforms paying money, and after the house is sold, the two sides share the profits.
Since you can cooperate with central enterprises to share profits, why not learn from Hefei Xi and be the best investment bank?
Yang Mingchao's pot circle was listed, and the A round of investment was the capital of Sanquan, and he only took 50 million at that time, and then took several small goals to withdraw, a million profits!
The headquarters of the pot ring is located in Shanghai, which is the need for development, and the local ** cannot be blamed, but what needs to be reviewed is why we can't learn from Sanquan's capital and decisively invest in the pot ring in round A or round B.
Investing in a growing enterprise, Hefei is doing this, and it is famous.
In Zhengzhou, there are at least Wanbang Agricultural Products Wholesale, Four Seasons Logistics Port, Xinji Condiments, Central Cross-Strait Seafood Market, Bairong Daily Necessities Wholesale, Chenzhai Shuangqiao Flower Wholesale Market, these six wholesale giants, but also industrial real estate giants, all have sustainable growth capabilities. Moreover, these six giants, in the economic downturn, also have a strong ability to resist risks, because they are sold all over the country.
The optimism is that the local government will enter the bureau and become shareholders to help these six giants grow into listed companies and make money in the capital market. In order to make up for the pain point of the sharp decline in land auction income. For the specific path, local think tanks can be invited to conduct preliminary research and find out.
Over the years, Zhengzhou has invited many domestic and foreign celebrities to come to Zhengzhou to hold various forms of summit forums, and the effect is definitely there, but foreign monks, after all, are not as familiar with Zhengzhou's pain points and shortcomings as the local ones.
Last week, the head of the top science and technology in China's food industry communicated that with their matchmaking and efforts, China's hot and sour noodle capital fell into Kaifeng. The listing of the pot ring also has the intellectual contribution of Zhou Jian, president of the Henan Institute of Reform and Development. These two examples are so amazing, showing that local rulers, not cannibals, can not only plan far, but also achieve things!
May my Zheng, in 2024, face the epic changes, work as one, on the road to make money, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, make ingenuity, and dig out the dividends of the times!