(This article was originally published on December 2 by The Athletic reporter John Hollinger and does not necessarily reflect the views of the translator.) ）
We sometimes complain about it when the NBA becomes a top-heavy league, like when the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers met in the Finals four years in a row. But what if things go in the opposite direction?
On the one hand, the NBA looks as open as it has been in the past few years; The title race is between several contenders, many of whom look strong, but none of them look flawless and can't guarantee a spot in the Grand Final in June.
Looking at the current standings, and the high-level numbers on team records, we can see that there are 22 relatively good teams, 19 of which have a win rate of 50% or higher until Saturday, and the remaining three (Raptors, Clippers, and Warriors) have a win rate below 50%, but they have a positive SRS (schedule-adjusted point difference) on the Basketball-Reference.
At first glance, this may seem confusing, as it seems impossible to have more than 15 good teams. After all, the NBA is a zero-sum game, with every win of one team canceling out the other's losses.
However, we have 22 good teams, and the reason we say that is because the other 8 teams are terrible. Remember the bubble park in 2020? Eight teams were so bad that they were told they didn't need to go to the park. Is there a way we can make this happen?
As of Saturday, the Hornets, Bulls, Wizards, Pistons, Spurs, Jazz, Trail Blazers and Grizzlies combined for a 36-110 record, a -8 point difference to their opponents per game2 points. Even so, they were lucky because of their 36 wins, 18 of them came against these eight teams. Against the best 22 teams, these 8 teams have a combined record of 18 wins and 92 losses. The Grizzlies are 1-9 in these games, the Wizards are 0-13 and the Pistons are 0-15. While the Hornets, Bulls and Trail Blazers salvaged some pride for the team on Friday, their concerns remain.
This comes as a bit of a surprise, first of all, in a season where the early part of the draft was significantly weaker than previous seasons, the rewards of brazen swinging are limited. Secondly, only a few of these teams started the new season badly. We know the Wizards and Trail Blazers are at the beginning of a long-term rebuild, but what about the other teams? The Jazz, Bulls, Hornets and Pistons have all had similar or better visions, with the Grizzlies having a combined 106 games in the last two seasons and the Spurs just scrapping their biggest lottery prize in recent years.
We can think of the Jazz situation as an extension of the Wizards and Trail Blazers situation, but the Jazz's defense is surprisingly embarrassing, and their guards are reluctant to pass the ball, which seems a little funny. The Jazz's long-term rebuild is only entering its second year, and even though they were unexpectedly contenders for the playoffs last season, some of them were trade-in players who came to the team to help the team rebuild further, and the Jazz now have a bunch of draft picks and young players.
The other 3 teams were clearly more disappointing. I was looking forward to seeing how the Grizzlies would play this season, and even after Steve Adams' injury, I'm still optimistic about it. While the Grizzlies have been affected by injuries, the Grizzlies will certainly be competitive once Morant returns on Dec. 20. But so far this season, the Grizzlies have exposed problems with roster depth and scoring. The Grizzlies traded Jones and two first-round picks for Smart, but so far with little success. The decision not to renew Dillon's contract — now he's thriving in Houston — looks like a mistake.
The Grizzlies' bet on big wing players hasn't paid off in recent years, and they've had little other options in the last two free agent markets. David Roddy and Zaire Williams rank third and fourth on the team, respectively, in terms of playing time, despite the Grizzlies' high level of benching; And Jake Lavia has played more minutes in the Development League than he has on the varsity team.
Grizzlies opponents have always missed three-pointers (they have opponents shooting a whopping 40 three-pointers per game).7%), the Grizzlies have the second-highest margin of loss per game in the league, but even so, they still have a 4-13 record. This year could end up being a "transition year" for the Grizzlies, a season of strategic abandonment and then inadvertently getting a high-pick lottery.
The Wasps' struggles may be more predictable than those of the Grizzlies, but that doesn't excuse the Hornets. The Hornets are at the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, and the second team in particular is shockingly bad and embarrassing. After the inexplicable release of Oubre in free agency this summer, the team relied heavily on frustrated second-round picks and some garbage players. (The Hornets are $33 million short of the luxury tax!) Spend some money! In the first year of the new owner's tenure, the hope for changes for the Hornets includes moving away from the squirping that has hindered the team's development for nearly a decade and a "chasing playoff spots" mentality every year.
Then, let's talk about the Bulls, whose fans have come to terms with the fact that the team has entered a long-term rebuilding phase like the Wizards and the Trail Blazers, even if the team itself doesn't seem to realize it. Three years ago, Chicago went all out to assemble a team that finished 6-14 and ranked 26th in offense and 21st in defense, and nine of the team's top 10 players missed games all season. Yes, I didn't count Lonzo Bauer, but he can't come back.
It's clear that Chicago aren't good enough and their performances aren't good enough to justify the signing of Vucevic, DeRozan and LaVine. Now that they have little hope of competing for a playoff spot, what can they achieve? If they're that bad anyway, the only option is to dismantle completely, keep the 2025 top-10 picks (sorry, Spurs), get paid off before DeRozan's contract expires, and bring value to the team while LaVine and Caruso are still in their 20s.
The teams I'd like to seriously discuss are the Pistons and the Spurs. Both teams have entered a rebuilding phase – the Pistons are in their fourth year of rebuilding, while the Spurs are entering the second year of a hard rebuild after three years of "soft rebuilding."
However, even among these eight disastrous teams, the performances of these two teams stand out from the rest. As of Saturday. The Pistons are 2-17 and on a 16-game losing streak; Spurs are 3-15 and on a 13-game losing streak. (Side note: The two teams will play each other on January 11, so get your tickets now!) ）
The Pistons' failure seems easier to explain than the Spurs' failure because the Pistons haven't found the talent to move the rebuilding process forward. Detroit has drafted four top-10 picks in recent years, Keyrian Hayes, Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Osar Thompson. If you look at the draft rankings of the experts, they all deserved this pick at the time, but now, none of them can be ranked in the top 10 of their respective positions, let alone serve as the long-term core of the team.
In a guard draft year with Haliburton, Vassell, Maxey and Bane, ranking Hayes ahead of all of them in 2020 was the original sin of the Pistons. The second worst could be to pick Cunningham in 2021 with the top pick, even though it was widely agreed that he was the top pick at the time. In the third season of his career, Cunningham is still just an average player, with a usage rate and growth space close to Doncic's, in exchange for an extremely high turnover rate. His best performances have been off the ball or in a chaotic battle. He lacks explosiveness and is not very good on his left hand, which limits his ability as a creator.
Ivey didn't play too badly as the No. 5 pick in 2022, but he didn't replace Hayes as the team's starter and, like Cunningham, struggled with turnovers. Ossar, the No. 5 pick in 2023, is a high-risk option, but what we do know is that he still needs to work on his first month of his rookie season, especially when it comes to shooting (he's shot just 5-of-35 from three-point range this season).
That being said, a series of misplaced bets and ill-sighted moves will only make things worse. They turned the best draft pick of the post-Griffin era (Saddiq Bey, the 19th pick in 2020) into Wiseman's "space program", and shoehorned Stewart, one of the team's best young players, into the No. 4 spot at the expense of a high salary in order to get free agent Bagley. They also didn't trade Bojan and Burks in exchange for more draft assets because they mistakenly thought they were close to playoff play.
Four years on, the Pistons are not close to making the playoffs. They can't achieve that until they sign at least one core player. They thought Cunningham was the centerpiece, but it became increasingly clear that he wasn't the choice. If you look closely, there are still some good operations in Detroit; Duren and Sather look like long-term candidates for the team, with Stewart being a good option and Ossar being an athletic prodigy. The team's roster isn't that bad, but they also don't have star-level talent, which makes it difficult for them to compete.
The Spurs, at least at first glance, aren't in the same despair as the Pistons, after all, San Antonio already has their savior: Wembanyama.
But on the other hand, they still suck. Isn't that even more frustrating? It's not just that Spurs are bad, they're actually a few levels worse than the other teams in those eight. Like the Pistons, the Spurs are on a double-digit losing streak; But unlike the Pistons, most of the games the Spurs have lost have been by a wide margin, they have lost by 40, 41, 21, 36 and 25 points, and they have only played 16 games so far!
They rank 28th in the league in offense, 27th in defense, and bottom in net efficiency with an embarrassing -118。If they continue to play like this, it will be the fifth-worst net efficiency in NBA history. They started with two 7-foot-tall players and let the 6-foot-9-inch Sochan play the open because they believed in the defensive potential of the lineup, but their basket protection stats were just average, and everything was terrible.
The Spurs did the best job of limiting their opponents' effective shooting percentage to just 581%。Although it may have something to do with it when it comes to limiting opponents' three-point shots (they let opponents shoot 39 from three-point range7%), but the Spurs are only 25th in terms of opponents' two-point shooting limits. Also, their problem is to attack from the position, and you would think their size will give them an advantage, but according to Cleaning the Glass, the Spurs have decent conversion defensive stats, but they are at the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency at half-time.
High-level statistics suggest that Wembanyama can help the team at least in this regard; When he's not on the floor, the Spurs concede 122 points per 100 possessions, but when he's on the floor, the Spurs concede 115 per 100 possessions3 points.
On Friday, Sochan played the best game of his career, scoring 33 points on 12-of-14 shooting in the loss to the Hawks, but looked especially bad in his playing time. Yes, he's only 20 years old, but Sochan doesn't have explosiveness and he doesn't have obvious moments as a passer to let him keep the ball like starting your QB3.
What's even more maddening is that the Spurs have a very good starting point guard, Tre Jones, who they just chose not to put him in that role. [The Spurs also cut another experienced point guard, Cameron Payne, before the start of the season, while Graham has joined the federal witness protection program and received a new status as a tour guide at the Alamo Hotel.] (Original: Devonte' Graham has been enrolled in the Federal Witness Protection Program and given a new identity as a tour guide at the Alamo.)）】
Jones still plays 24 minutes off the bench every game, and he usually plays much better than the others. When Jones is on the court, the Spurs offense is significantly better, while when Sochan is on the court, the Spurs offense is significantly worse and has no real impact on the defensive end. The Spurs scored 110 per 100 possessions when Jones came on6 points, compared to 103 per 100 possessions when Sochan was on the court9 points. Among their main players, the Spurs have the highest scoring and plus/minus when Jones is on the court, while the opposite is true when Sochan is on the floor.
Even excluding the team's experiments with Sochan, the Spurs have a head-scratching feeling: Simply put, they shouldn't be that bad. Wembanyama hasn't reached the level of a savior yet, and he needs to calm down on the dribble, but the Spurs also seem determined to make his game as tough as possible: not letting him play with a real point guard and letting him get the ball in awkward places. Wembanyama, Vassell and Keldon Johnson shouldn't play together every game.
You could give some minor explanations for their struggles: their bench players were poor, they forced Branham on the court and caused severe indigestion, and the bench generally lacked shooting opportunities on the court.
Still, when you look at Spurs, you can't help but think that this isn't a team that is in the bottom five in history, or close to the bottom five. It's an experience to watch them play, and every time after the first quarter, people have this reaction, "In the last seven seconds, why is Sochan gone?" And, "Wow, this guy looks like Zach Collins." "And in the third quarter, you want to ask how the opponent got 100 points. There are individual players who don't look bad, but they play badly, which makes you question Spurs coach Popovich and why they are playing together.
With only a quarter past the season, perhaps those issues will prove solvable for the Spurs and the remaining seven teams that have been performing poorly. In other words, even if they make the playoffs, the hope of these 8 teams is already very slim, and the remaining 22 teams will compete for a playoff or play-off spot, maybe 40 wins will be a high threshold? It's disappointing to see such a poor league without the team with the worst record having the highest probability of getting the top pick.
Original: John Hollinger
Compiler: jaychan