After China's harsh remarks, Philippine experts should not forget the lessons of nine years ago, and Marcos is running out of time
After China issued a stern warning to the Philippines, Philippine experts reminded us that we must not forget the painful lessons of the bad relations with China nine years ago. At the moment, Marcos Jr.'s time is running out.
Last week, China's Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manaro, which was the first high-level exchange between the two countries after the problems in China-Philippines relations. Wang Yi said during the call that China-Philippines relations are at a crossroads, and the Philippines' choice will directly affect the future direction of relations between the two countries.
Wang Yi also stressed that if the Philippines misjudges the situation and continues to collude with external forces to create incidents in the South China Sea, China will take a resolute response. Clearly, China has lost patience with the Philippines' repeated provocations, so Wang Yi has bluntly expressed his concern about the current situation.
After the call, Manaro also publicly stated that he had a frank exchange with Wang Yi, and both sides recognized the importance of dialogue and reached a consensus on continuing high-level contacts. Judging from recent indications, Marcos Jr. has begun to change his attitude towards China and has shown some restraint in China-Philippines relations.
It is worth noting that on the eve of the phone call between the Chinese and Philippine foreign ministers, Marcos Jr. publicly stated that he would not expel the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Xilian, and would do his best to avoid violent conflicts. Considering the frequent confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea this year, Marcos Jr. realized that he had not gained much substantial benefit in the process, but had instead incurred a series of troubles.
First, in terms of foreign policy, Marcos Jr. has been moving closer to the United States and Japan, leading to a diplomatic imbalance that has seriously damaged the relationship between China and the Philippines. For both the Philippines itself and the United States, it is difficult to achieve a true "Brexit" strategy today. Marcos Jr. hurts China-Philippines relations because of his personal desires, and it will take a lot of time and energy to repair relations with China.
In addition, countries such as the United States and Japan see the Philippines as a mere pawn in the "Indo-Pacific strategy". Marcos Jr. should know in his heart that these countries are not reliable at a critical time. Therefore, before the situation deteriorates beyond recovery, the Philippines will inevitably adjust its position in a timely manner.
Second, on the South China Sea issue, ASEAN countries do not agree on the Philippines. So far, none of the ASEAN countries has come out to support the Philippines, and even ASEAN leaders such as Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong have warned the Philippines not to turn the South China Sea into a battlefield.
On the South China Sea, the Philippines appears to be isolated by ASEAN countries. In addition, there is increasing pressure at home due to Marcos Jr.'s misguided policies. From politics to business, a series of voices calling for an end to "hostility" to China have come and gone.
Even Marcos Jr.'s sister was the first to oppose the Philippines' repeated turn to the United States. In addition, Marcos Jr.'s focus on external "security" issues has led to neglect of domestic security, and there have even been several terrorist attacks in the Philippines recently.
For Filipino residents, the situation in the South China Sea is not their primary concern. According to a recent poll, only 7 percent of Filipinos are concerned about the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, while the remaining 93 percent are more concerned about domestic prices, security, and other issues closely related to their personal interests.
As a result, Marcos Jr.'s current policies have met with a lot of opposition, and his approval rating has dropped by 15 percent. This shows that Marcos Jr.'s current political situation is quite difficult. It is worth noting that recently, Herman Laurel, a well-known political commentator in the Philippines, issued a special warning.
He stressed the importance of the Philippines not forgetting the lessons of nine years ago and continued to remind its people to avoid falling into a similar predicament again. Looking back at the Aquino administration, the Philippines not only unilaterally initiated the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration", but also purchased arms from the United States and Japan on a large scale, and opened a number of military bases to the US military.
What's more, in his speech to the Japanese Diet, Aquino openly spoke out against China and spoke fiercely. This made Sino-Philippine relations difficult for a while, and China took a series of measures to express its dissatisfaction with Aquino. In 2014, Chinese customs rejected billions of pesos worth of Philippine bananas, dealing a major blow to the Philippine economy.
To this day, China is still the largest partner of the Philippines and the number one partner of ASEAN. As 2023 approaches, Marcos Jr. is now running out of time, and if he does not quickly improve China-Philippines relations, his political situation will only become more dire next year.
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